Topic: Analysis - page 288. (Read 941596 times)

Look at post 992... that does (informally) what you are asking.  It takes time to make a strong argument with charts and such...  which I always appreciate, but there's a lot of good information in smaller posts as well...  I find it interesting that there seems to be a general consensus amongst the traders.

He also said that in april, just before the obvious bottom of 50$, when he announced he was back in. In case you did not notice, 400$ are the new 50$. 

I'd love to see some lovely charts about this bounce back, resistance levels, points to determine whether the next leg down tests support or breaks it, etc.

Strong support at $60.-, and at $5'000.- in Dec. 2016 (with resistance at 150'000.-).

Yeah, I should really mention time frames. Around 330 is what I expect to be an important level if we have another *major* swing down. As in: major swing #1 was from Dec. 5th  to Dec. 7th. #2 from Dec. 11th to today. If we don't stabilize where we are now (and I would consider breaking 600-625 a good sign that we do), then I expect another major leg down in the coming days. A retest of 450 fits in between, it's just that I don't trade these (smaller time-frame) swings, so I don't really look at them, I admit.

But I'm not arguing 

Anyway, I agree that this, or at the very lowest $400 (gox price) is bottom. It fits my original estimate based on top/bottom ratio of previous bubble, as well as daily SMA100 which determined April floor.

A bit worried that China broke SMA100 but this should be expected with recent news. I just hope the effect won't spread to the western exchanges.

That's why mining altcoins is hot right now and vendors are bringing FPGA/ASIC for litecoin to the market fast. Folks who missed easy days mining bitcoin are jumping on litecoin.

We are in hourly oversold right now on mega volume, decreasing rapidly. 3 hours of tapping the underside of $600. High chance of heading back down to retest *something*... I think $330 is too aggressive. To me $400 is more likely (mid-November pit-stop). $450 is certain.

All prices gox.

Next up, me eating my words.

[edit] also, people, androids, sheep, this is an analysis thread. keep your petty e-arguments to PMs please. thanksies.

They ARE cultists. Bitcoin cultists. They don't want to make money, they want to be right.

People, seriously. I understand some of you long term holders are riding this one out while staying more or less completely in BTC, but you need to lay off the brainless mantra's like "only the weak hands fear the government", and especially the uninformed bullshit about the Chinese people and China in general.

This is a market, get that into your heads. What we're doing here is price discovery. And if a huge driver of the former rally drops out for now because of changed legislation, there's abso-fucking-lutely nothing strange or unsavory about a major price drop.

China limiting BTC's usability = decreased value of BTC (for now)

Doesn't mean we'll never cross 1000 again. Doesn't mean China is completely out. Just that some of the things Chinese investors saw in BTC probably don't apply anymore.

So stop "arguing" with the market, and stop dividing investors and traders into "weak" vs."strong" hands, because you sound like cultists when you do.

* * *

Back on topic:

To me it looks like 1d SMA100 ~= 1d EMA150 (I prefer the latter version) held today and got some confirmation. It briefly dipped below on Bitstamp, but shot back above it with force.

So 400 (bitstamp) could be the preliminary bottom, in my opinion. Although I personally still watch out for 330 as the next level if we continue to go down. I see some small positive signs that we're reversing (mainly because of bid/ask ratio across exchanges), but it's not much yet to work with I admit :/

* * *

EDIT:  looked a bit more into the possibility that we've seen the worst of this correction... from my perspective, I look at 625 (bitstamp mtgox price) as a critical level. If we don't get there (and stay there) within the next day or two, I believe we're going to see another leg down, including a new post peak low most likely.

EDIT 2: made a mistake: mtgox, not bitstamp price

I feel bad for you if trust someone else more than yourself trading this market.

Quoted for truth.

I would add that Bitcoins was never intended to be for pussies that get scared by a Gov. attack/ban.

Why did you think Satoshi made such an effort to remain anonymous?

Let's the real games begin.

China is out. Bitcoin is not for pussies that listen to their government.

next 5 milestones imho.

previous ATH, $2k, $5k, $10k, $20k

(if china u-turns there might be some yuan related oddball figures in there)

Nobody forces you to read someone else's  analysis

My analysis is based on tools that  are kind of simple and mostly self derived, so I'm sure I'm guilty of non standard terminology. To me it makes sense calling both resistance and support "resistance" because in my dumb little model, that is exactly what price encounters, the direction is implicit.

But I can try  to keep it mind, if it's really that confusing.

Anyway, seems like a bit of a recovery now. Wouldn't be surprised though if it's temporary. Testing 300 is well possible I think.

Question for the EW and fibbonacci guys : it seems most of you count from a peak of around 1000, while I look at 1200 as the top. What gives?

I'm looking at SMA100 and SMA200.
On Gox they're at 420$ and 263$, i'm positioning my buy orders in the lower half of this range.

It would really help (when trying to read so many posts) if people used "resistance" and "support" in the conventional way.

In the outside world price doesn't meet resistance on the way down, it finds support. People's points can be lost if you have to re-read several times because the language makes no apparent sense.

Okay, back to BTC. Like I said before, I'm not much of a EW believer, so no wave counting from. Looking at my own (admittedly simple) tools, I have to say I am puzzled a bit: we broke through what I consider points of resistance at a speed I didn't expect. That said, one major point of resistance so far has been a 30 week average (I don't really believe in "hard" resistances, so what I look at is more 25,30,35 weeks). Which currently sits at around 355 (mtgox), 325 (bitstamp). If it breaks through that, I give it a high chance of bouncing up again.

To get back to it, with a bit of EW (which have been working pretty well up to now)

https://i.imgur.com/64tbmSM.png

We are definitely into 3 of 3 of c, it does show on macd, and the subminuette count confirm it. RSI still have some margin to go down before the next bounce.
I expect wave 5 to lack intensity, probably falling short and possibly to cause a double bottom. Too much selling pressure at the moment.
But let see where we going first.

Gentlemen, I would really appreciate, if you would put your extraordinary brains back to work  to hell with naysayers, they are the ones, who will keep losing money and respect, not you. And that´s all that matters.