Analysis - page 304. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Zarathustra

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Quote from: BrightAnarchist on December 04, 2013, 10:08:22 AM

Quote from: masterluc on December 04, 2013, 09:13:11 AM

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.

Macno

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Do you really think you should compare the global stock markets with bitcoin?
If we go to 100 USD or lower, we`re talking about a market cap of less than 1,2 Billion USD.
That`s a single MidCap/SmallCap stock.
Do you think bitcoin will become more or less useless again (i.e. only drugsellers and gamblers will use it, as in 2009-2012)?

(honest question, I`ve learned a long time ago not to make fun of EW (it`s just too expensive)...though I haven`t heard anything vom good old Bob Prechter and his SP500 top calls for a while...).

masterluc

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Quote from: Rampion on December 07, 2013, 07:36:26 AM

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.

Rampion

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Quote from: masterluc on December 07, 2013, 07:28:05 AM

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No mystery here. TA and observance.

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

For the record: I think you are terribly wrong with that. Bear markets have been shorter and shorter - and so have been the run ups.

Bubbles are getting shorter and more contained, both in the way up and in the way down. They are also getting closer in time.

masterluc

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I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No mystery here. TA and observance.

Rampion

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Quote from: seleme on December 07, 2013, 07:08:50 AM

Quote from: Rampion on December 07, 2013, 07:06:07 AM

Quote from: Miz4r on December 06, 2013, 07:02:31 PM

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. Tongue

I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again.

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

He definitely is. His "end of 3 years bullish market" is bullshit though but he is getting followers and such bold claims can help him a bit to move markets where he wants.

Agreed on that being BS, there's no reason for that to happen.

seleme

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Duelbits.com

Quote from: Rampion on December 07, 2013, 07:06:07 AM

Quote from: Miz4r on December 06, 2013, 07:02:31 PM

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. Tongue

I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again.

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

He definitely is. His "end of 3 years bullish market" is bullshit though but he is getting followers and such bold claims can help him a bit to move markets where he wants.

Rampion

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Quote from: Miz4r on December 06, 2013, 07:02:31 PM

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. Tongue

I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again.

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

odin.dillinger

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Quote from: ?? on ??

thank you for the wonderful information you give in this thread, masterluc!

+1

JustAnotherSheep

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Quote from: masterluc on December 06, 2013, 04:26:35 PM

Quote from: ft73 on December 06, 2013, 04:06:57 PM

I bet we'll see 700$ (bitstamp).

400

$300-400 was my original low count as well, back when I thought wave 5 would end at 1200, as bottoms have consistently been 3-4x lower than bubble tops.

However, seeing as wave 5 ended kind of prematurely now (we could've gone much higher if it wasn't for the Chinese news imo) and without as much momentum during the pop, do you think there's a chance of a higher bottom at around $500? Going by "the higher you fly, the harder you'll fall" gut instinct heh.

I want to know where to catch the knife Grin

myself

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chaos is fun...…damental :)

now that OP is bearish the amount of chart posted is insane Grin

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Lady_Luck on December 06, 2013, 10:44:22 PM

The problem with this count is the WXY in 2011. Y must go below W unless it's a triangle. So the $7.22 high was indeed a 1 of some degree while the $1.994 low was the wave-II. The more recent highs can count to be a series of 1-2's which would still make this wave-III

Lady_Luck

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I found this chart and it's pretty similar to the one being painted here.
https://i.imgur.com/YiMzdkY.png

But as much as I can like the the fact that the pattern isn't misshape i don't like their proportion in time and space.

I don't know if you saw that triple top in the S&P 500, may be I'm not the only one to see time more relevant than price targets, so what about this :

https://i.imgur.com/fYFAeE9.png

It would allow a bear market with a more realistic (understand higher than... a dollar or ten) lower target, and would place the end of the actual bull market later than now.

Staring with a significant low li'd see more {2} as a WXY, it make more sense to me on the scale of time.
The rule of wave 3 being the longest wouldn't be broken, and the time between every waves 1 to 3 (and every sub-waves included ) would equal the time between every waves and sub-waves 4 to 5.

Also it would match with the sentiment of people (when reaching past top/low) and with the fact that $32 wasn't breach in April.
In my opinion only more people cashing out at higher prices to be a millionaire would justify the wiping-out of most of bitcoin history.

Miz4r

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You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. Tongue

I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again.

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Ozymandias on December 06, 2013, 12:25:36 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 06, 2013, 07:46:30 AM

Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.

Forgive my ignorance, but where is wave v in that graph? I absolutely differ to masterluc and have been a fan of his analysis for a while, but could not the 266 bubble have been said wave v making this top be the historic 3 of 5 and we are just entering wave 4?

Quote from: sumantso on December 06, 2013, 12:27:12 PM

Thats what I was thinking too. Another big wave up left.

The 3 IS the v! (Note:5 up, 3 down) the same as the 5 is a "I", and that C would be the "II" in that pic.

Quote from: wobber on December 06, 2013, 12:39:44 PM

Please forgive my ignorance, but why does it have do go so much down? This chart implies sub $10 prices. I doubt this will happen.

I make no implications! This chart was simply a visual aid for what I was explaining and is not my personal prediction. I have no problem showing the state of the market, but I keep outlooks to myself Tongue

Zarathustra

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: seleme on December 06, 2013, 02:16:23 PM

Quote from: Zarathustra on December 06, 2013, 06:58:19 AM

Quote from: seleme on December 06, 2013, 05:56:34 AM

Exactly, utter bullshit. Predicting corrections, crashes etc.. is all OK if you have arguments for it but to claim such a huge thing on the top of Bitcoin's awareness is pathetic, lol.

It seems you have no idea of EWT. EWT does not analyse corrections and crashes only. It is an analysis of short and long waves and thus used as a basic for predictions, based on personal interpretations of the waves and the probabilities, which depends on how a waver is counting the waves.

Another argument to call it bullshit. As two weeks ago he was calling this wave 3 of EWT.

He just thinks this is the top of current rally/bubble and want people to follow him counting on some of his earlier good calls so he could reload cheaper Wink

He, of course might be right about the bubble, there is lot of people thinking the same and he made enough good calls so far, but only idiot could call this end of 3 years bullish trend, lol and say I'm out until 2016. If someone said that in April there might be lot of people who would buy it but now, when things around Bitcoin are happening as a storm, it's laughable.

As I said already: You don't have any arguments to call it bullshit. With your 'arguments' you are showing that you know nothing about EWT. EWT is not a tool to predict the waves on news and fundamentals.

Rampion

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Quote from: masterluc on December 06, 2013, 04:26:35 PM

Quote from: ft73 on December 06, 2013, 04:06:57 PM

I bet we'll see 700$ (bitstamp).

400

I certainly placed most of my bids there. It's a sweet spot.

But I LOL at your multi year bear market prediction. No more than 3 months of bear market if the fundamentals don't change; if the winkleevis ETF gets approved we are going to the moon (and then probably to single digits fueled by insane amounts of leveraged shorting, that would be an epic final bubble and subsequent crash in smoke and flames

)

ft73

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Quote from: masterluc on December 06, 2013, 04:26:35 PM

Quote from: ft73 on December 06, 2013, 04:06:57 PM

I bet we'll see 700$ (bitstamp).

400

I feel the same, SMA100 is not far from there, but i think it will rebound from about 700$.
EDIT: i meant EMA100, however SMA100 it's close by. Should be a strong support area.

If it's going to break,then SMA200 won't Wink

masterluc

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Quote from: ft73 on December 06, 2013, 04:06:57 PM

I bet we'll see 700$ (bitstamp).

400

NamelessOne

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Quote from: masterluc on December 06, 2013, 03:09:52 PM

I hided this gif for this special moment.

LOL, I'd be okay with some bear market action, I wanted it to go higher but the thoughts of 50-75% cheaper coins we got in previous post bubble bear markets is awesome.

Topic: Analysis - page 304. (Read 941563 times)