Topic: Analysis - page 302. (Read 941596 times)

Making false EW readings does not mean that EW failed. If EW was straight forward and precise, it wouldn't be a theory.

Your second statement isn't even worth a response because you clearly have not looked at a commodity chart in a long time. People flee commodities and stocks and flock towards cash and bonds during market downturns. The only exception would be during a highly inflationary period which we are not in.

I missed that quote from earlier. Well, if Masterluc is definitely out of bitcoin forever, then I will miss his day to day analysis. Fortunately, being great at short term trends does not preclude knowledge on long term trends. Or, if it does, then I guess we will all see each other at $0 and this thread can be the historical evidence of everything that happened.

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and goes down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

EW theory is a speculative theory which works for every market. The S-curve is not even even in the same category, so there really isn't a strong argument that they are incompatible.

Commodities almost always fall during stock market declines so your second point doesn't really make sense.

I suggest that you take the time to understand market dynamics and EW before you claim that materlucs is imagining a relationship which isn't there.

And "they just press BUY/SELL" is an oversimplification to make towards such a range of sizes.

Great analysis btw. I stand corrected on the part where I said around $800 would be bottom.

I was trying to warn you. Usually one MINUTE trader cannot predict $945 - $576  crash (or $75-$1200 bubble). I hope you are well.

$2k - $4k is far from final push. Final push is $50k+ or ZERO( but Bitcoin is ANTI-fragile).

edit: but 20% is enough to hold.

^

You can't be serious.  Big money institutions don't enter markets at it's peak.  They enter markets when it has been gutted to near death.  Bitcoin is at it's peak right now in terms of good publicity and price.

If you are referring to coinbase as GS, i doubt it.  Coinbase seems VERY shady, but that doesn't mean it is linked to GS just because former GS worker started coinbase.

Tuesday will show the truth. ($400 or ATH)

man you dont know when the market is ready to move on, this is zero sum game and if u think the next rally will be fuelled fully by new deposits u are naive, next push will be fuelled in a large part by pig money and there are plenty of people who can lose more money  

Where did you find out somebody dropped 10k stash?  Or just speculation?

Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify...

I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there.

However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets.

Luc's short term predictions are awesome.

But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other.

So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns.

Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years.

But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination.

show some respect.

lucif did call two bubble tops + choo choo train to 1k $

I took his money, he  probably a bit angry

dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?

Isn't it common knowledge that Coinbase is GS's bitcoin arm? That's how they do things, they take one of their own and make him CEO (Fred Ehrsam in this case) of the company in the sector that they're looking to probe without having to actually take a position in a gray-ish market (and thus saving face if it goes belly up).

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

I believe he is talking about the big wallet holders, such as the one last night who took advantage of the misinterprited China news to drop 20% of their stash (10,000 BTC ) that caused a 100,000 coin avalanche and allowed them to buy at 40% lower.. Notice how these things come.. first its the doom and gloom, then the press, the all you need is a match to light the panic farts and if your in the position to do this then.. down it comes, but the ask depth really hasn't changed much.. Up we go, unless they think they can pull it off again but I don't think there are that many (inexperienced) traders left now that will have the confidence to take it that much lower before plowing on up through the thin ask side