Topic: Analysis - page 303. (Read 941596 times)
Big is relative word )
Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.Thanks.
They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).
They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).
Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.
Big money hasn't even invested in Bitcoin. Why do you use this as a reason to suggest that Bitcoin is at "big money's" mercy?
Can you clarify what you are even talking about?
Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
And moreso, "big money" in my opinion doesn't just reside in the US. There is some really big money in the Middle East. In India. In Asia and Hong Kong.
Again, not investing in BTC. Yet.
So what is this mysterious big money you are talking about?
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.
The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
re: ATH. We'll see, I guess. Too far into the big money game for stuff to play out like 2011, IMO.
re: news vs. TA. Never said *TA follows news*. Just that I don't buy the opposite either (*News follows TA*). It's a bit more complicated than that, and you gave a good example (sometimes e.g. price "unlocks" certain events.) (hehehe, no I'm thinking of MMORPGs)
Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.Thanks.
They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).
They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).
Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.
Hi there,
Could I ask a question as a layman without any grasp of technical analysis, stocks, charts, etc.
What do those of you who are specialists in this field and who do this to earn at least a part-time living or a full-time living think about the reliability of your methods when applied to bitcoin as opposed to major stocks or the forex markets?
Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
Could I ask a question as a layman without any grasp of technical analysis, stocks, charts, etc.
What do those of you who are specialists in this field and who do this to earn at least a part-time living or a full-time living think about the reliability of your methods when applied to bitcoin as opposed to major stocks or the forex markets?
Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.
The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.
Yes, all of this is now on a larger scale. And that is why the price is on a larger scale.
For us to repeat 2011 would mean the price to go back to $40-60.
That ain't happening, unless the price goes back to 0.
I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.
If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.
No mystery here. TA and observance.
If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.
No mystery here. TA and observance.
So you are 100% fiat until 2016?
We getting a quote on that?
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.
The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.
Yes, all of this is now on a larger scale. And that is why the price is on a larger scale.
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.
The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.
Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?
Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.Hold on here.
You just got through saying that news follows technicals. I generally agree with you.
Then you say that BTC will be bearish for 3 years due to the stock market going down.
Ummmmm....the stock market going down is NOT a technical.
Plus, last time the stock market went down, gold and silver prices started to rally.
So, this is FUD you are pulling out of your ass, not TA.
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.
The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
Quote
EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.
how many times the market ignore the news, not just btc all markets ... u hear that on tv
when the TA become bullish good news is the kicker and TA become bearish news become the kicker, think about the news like a tipping point for a move
just look at all past news good bad and add TA on them to see the kicker
Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.
I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.
But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.
But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.
If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.
No mystery here. TA and observance.
If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.
No mystery here. TA and observance.
What does bb zone stand for?
"bollinger band"
I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.
If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.
No mystery here. TA and observance.
If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.
No mystery here. TA and observance.
What does bb zone stand for?
And BTW: the "I'm afraid we are going to the moon" post when we were at $145 is probably the best quote coming from the speculation subforum in 2013
Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?
Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.
Impressive chart. IMO BTC will play as a contrary asset, doing the opposite as the stock markets will do.
Thus I join the crowd expecting a new ATH in the next few months. Probably by 3/4 months, and surely before 12 months. I think it's more probable we break ATH in the next 30 days that not doing it till 2016/2017 as lucif expect.
Nevertheless, big kudos to lucif and his no bullshit approach. While others miss their predictions over and over while they brag about how much money they do by day trading (and they have to give pompous and complex explanations for that), lucif just gives straight to the point analysis and buy/sell calls that speak for themselves.
I think we all agree that lucif has won the prize of best analyst in 2013.
Lucif: you should start managing people's funds for a cut of the profits, this is your time my friend
Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.
Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.
All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.
Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.
I can only gain or lose 1 coin. A Bitcoin is a Bitcoin is a Bitcoin. And furthermore, the chance of a new high is 20 percent only, according to the count of the maestro.
Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.
Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.
All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.
Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.
Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?
Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this. Jump to: