Topic: Analysis - page 300. (Read 941596 times)

Well, Wekkel 2 posts back capitulated. I say we wait for some more time to see if its a false breakout or not. Masterluc posted saying its a bearish pennant.

Anyways, if the doom and gloom sceneraio plays out we would all be laughing that we sold

Its just a bitcoin sale.

This bolded part was just a joke, but was it actually correct, or is this just a false breakout?

silly bears ... EW says  $400 :-) ... more than 260k btc dumped at gox, only 12k can be re-bought till $1200 ... who panic buy the first panic buy the best !!! :-)

We are breaking upside from the triangle. Balls of steel and all in 

Whilst I see the benefit in technical analysis, I don't think it's right to expect bitcoin to behave in the same way as gold. I think fundamentals make a big difference here; one is a new technology which more and more people are discovering everyday, the other is something that has been around for thousands of years. I would be very surprised if bitcoin goes into a prolonged bear market like gold, I think that will be almost impossible unless bitcoin dies.

If bitcoin goes into a 2 year bear market then "this time it's different."  That has never happened before. It was in a bear market for a 1 1/2 after the 2011 crash when bitcoin had zero eco-system, zero non-dark companies accepting it, zero endorsement from anyone in the VC or financial arenas, and the list goes on and on and on.  

With bitcoin's short history, every "bubble" HAS been different.  Where was the long term bear market after April? All the way until June? Not much of a bear market. Bitcoin went up 150% in 2012 and 7000% in 2013.  Where is the "this time its the same?"

Bitcoin hasnt behaved like gold ever. But this time its different?

I just disagree fundamentally. But the fun part is, we will get to find out soon enough.

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.

I hope it was a misunderstanding as I have no ill will. That is why I complement OP on his work.

I do think there is a healthy discussion to be had with EW traders about the fundamentals of bitcoin away from the charts themselves. As I think it is important to have a healthy discussion with "to the moon" purists about the benefits of TA.

As long as you stay away from trying to discredit TA, EW, or its practitioners, I'm pretty sure this whole fiasco will go down as a giant misunderstanding. Just try to keep an open mind, listen, and be respectful, especially when you are posting on someone else's thread. 

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure.

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

Are you bullish long term after this correction/downtrend?

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

That's aimed at me. Fair enough.

But just because I doubt that EW can tell us everything we need to know about bitcoin markets moving forward, I do not think my assertion is unreasonable. There seems to be great consensus amongst this group that bitcoins best days are behind it (at least for years). And this is based on charts. If we are higher in price 1 year from now, I am interested to see if a more robust way of looking at this market might be taken into effect or if it will just be dismissed by "more EW waves" in a different order.  Short term analysis with this waves are great predictors, because they track the emotions of the market. But, in my opinion, bitcoins success moving forward mid to long term is going to be about fundamentals.

edit: and what is it with all the defensiveness in this thread? how many times must someone complement the OP until they can avoid the condescension of EW theory traders? Jess. I bought low and sold high too guys. I basically made the important buys and trades that most here did without staring at charts 24/7. It wasn't rocket science.

Maybe the one difference is I have a certain allocation in cold storage as a long term investment. Maybe I'm just naive enough to believe that Bitcoin has a place in the future of this world outside of a short term trade vehicle.

No problem. I'll always defend a fellow talented TA & EWer
It's truly amazing how often I have to explain basic market concepts and recall basic information in the speculation forum. Trying to educate people of the practicality of EW is the hardest because so many people misunderstand and misuse it. It's one of those ideas/theories that takes weeks to somewhat understand but years to fully appreciate and profit from. Most just quickly learn about it, without fully understanding it, and then fail at it and subsequently blame the idea instead of their own shortcomings. Anything that is worth doing/learning isn't easy! Moreover, it's insulting to have some of these same people argue with and insult you on something they haven't taken the time to understand, especially when you are trying to help them out.

I am still bothered by a lack of discussion with fundamentals. Of course this is a 100% technical discussion thread and the essence behind that is markets are moved by emotions and emotions can be tracked and estimated by TA. Thats true.

But what is also true is underlining fundamentals create success and failure too. Just ask Warren Buffet.

When I see the $120 rising tracking with the investments from Second Market is gives me pause. With the ETF and other high level investment capital likely to find its way into this market in 2014, I have a hard time believing that this will be a "car wreck in slow motion" over the next 12 months +.  And there are many other potential influences of capital into this market as well.

Is there not something to be said for mixing high level TA with deep fundamental data? It is so easy to dismiss bitcoin and crypto is just some highly speculative trading vehicle.  

I think this misses the entire picture.

Other commodities and futures are not technologies.  They dont really have fundamentals. I would argue that bitcion is more like a stock in that regard, it has fundamentals that can and should be tracked. This is hard to do, as it is hard to track the fundamental value of Twitter or Facebook or some new technology. But it shouldn't be ignored.

I have been thinking that too. Though I am not sure if I am seeing what I want to see. I found out about BTC during the April boom - don't want to be the guy who comes to the party while its at the end; still have dreams of becoming a millionaire