Analysis - page 56. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Joe200

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Quote from: windjc on December 25, 2017, 08:37:24 PM

Quote from: thefiniteidea on December 25, 2017, 05:33:04 PM

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

windjc

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Quote from: thefiniteidea on December 25, 2017, 05:33:04 PM

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3892

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: thefiniteidea on December 25, 2017, 05:33:04 PM

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Your comment makes little to no sense. Without context, it just comes off as a pure uninformed stab in the dark.

Correlation is not causation, and past performance does not predict future performance, even though past performance can give you some ideas about momentum, resistance/support points, and to be able to attempt to attribute probabilities to future performance.

thefiniteidea

hero member

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"In Us We Trust"

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: Hope_Trader on December 25, 2017, 06:09:11 AM

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

While more down is certainty possible, the default output for bitcoin is definitely not down. Btc does not behave like traditional asset classes.

Hope_Trader

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 1

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/48f2czx4/

Biodom

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Quote from: Joe200 on December 24, 2017, 09:31:33 PM

Quote from: Biodom on December 24, 2017, 09:12:51 PM

Quote from: Joe200 on December 24, 2017, 08:57:00 PM

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

You are assuming the drop from the ~20 high has completed. I am talking about the scenario of what happens if it's not, based on masterluc saying that one possibility is retesting 10.

Figuring out where the low is is the most confusing part. Masterluc puts it at 3.5 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/ .

ah, but once it happened, it (3.5K) is largely irrelevant by now.
it was just a point when he drew the chart, that's all.

Joe200

sr. member

Activity: 317

Merit: 252

Quote from: Biodom on December 24, 2017, 09:12:51 PM

Quote from: Joe200 on December 24, 2017, 08:57:00 PM

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

You are assuming the drop from the ~20 high has completed. I am talking about the scenario of what happens if it's not, based on masterluc saying that one possibility is retesting 10.

Figuring out where the low is is the most confusing part. Masterluc puts it at 3.5 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/ .

Biodom

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Quote from: Joe200 on December 24, 2017, 08:57:00 PM

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

Joe200

sr. member

Activity: 317

Merit: 252

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 24, 2017, 08:12:44 PM

Quote from: Biodom on December 24, 2017, 07:01:54 PM

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink

.

Seems quite a bit premature to assert that the "patient does not look too well short term", no?

We only recently broke above $10k, and pretty much went straight to $19.6k. Yeah, after breaching $10k, there was nearly an immediate 27% correction from $11,350 to $9k, but the BTC price going from $10k to $19.6k was pretty fast.

It seems that we are also experiencing a pretty decent BTC price battle, now, with decently high trade volume.

You are correct that the BTC price could resolve either UP or DOWN, yet since we have been in a bull market for more than two years, since about $250, and there is nothing meaningful really driving this price in the downward direction, besides regular corrections that attempt to allow buying support to catch up to current prices, still seems that from here the odds for an upwards price resolution are a bit stronger than the odds for a downward resolution.

EDIT: I see that you corrected it ~~'tis wasn't me...I simply looked over google translate of what ML wrote and edited it a little to smooth over GT's rough edges.~~
my personal opinion is...no opinion. 62% fib did not even happened yet. Overall, I agree that it would be strange to go down hard at this juncture.

JayJuanGee

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Activity: 3892

Merit: 11105

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Biodom on December 24, 2017, 07:01:54 PM

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink

.

Seems quite a bit premature for MasterLuc to assert that the "patient does not look too well short term", no?

We only recently broke above $10k, and pretty much went straight to $19.6k. Yeah, after breaching $10k, there was nearly an immediate 27% correction from $11,350 to $9k, but the BTC price going from $10k to $19.6k was pretty fast.

It seems that we are also experiencing a pretty decent BTC price battle, now, with decently high trade volume.

Sure MasterLuc is correct that the BTC price could resolve either UP or DOWN, yet since we have been in a bull market for more than two years, since about $250, and there is nothing meaningful really driving this price in the downward direction, besides regular corrections that attempt to allow buying support to catch up to current prices, still seems that from here the odds for an upwards price resolution are a bit stronger than the odds for a downward resolution.

btcone111

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 110

Quote from: Biodom on December 24, 2017, 07:01:54 PM

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink

.

Thank you so much for translating immediately what he has posted! Really appreciate it!

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink

.

Pruden

hero member

Activity: 496

Merit: 500

Spanish Bitcoin trader

Quote from: Millionero on December 24, 2017, 05:59:21 PM

He said we must look at the closing of the weekly candle. If it's above the previous week's bottom -- we recover.
But does previous week's bottom mean the previous week's closing or the previous week's low (the wick)?
Taken literally, the previous week's bottom is the lowest price of the week, in other words the candle wick.
Which would mean we still have breathing room.

It's done. The week he was talking about is over. We closed above the previous week's low, which prevented an ugly reversal candle.

Millionero

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He said we must look at the closing of the weekly candle. If it's above the previous week's bottom -- we recover.
But does previous week's bottom mean the previous week's closing or the previous week's low (the wick)?
Taken literally, the previous week's bottom is the lowest price of the week, in other words the candle wick.
Which would mean we still have breathing room.

MrBigHang

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Activity: 55

Merit: 1

Quote from: Millionero on December 24, 2017, 02:39:57 PM

The latest weekly candle from bitstamp
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

How does this relate to what Vanga said here

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - as it closes. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.
B любoм cлyчae нaдo cмoтpeть нa нeдeльнyю cвeчy - кaк oнa зaкpoeтcя. Ecли 10к ycтoит нa нeдeльнoм ypoвнe, ecли нe yдapит в пpeдыдyщee нeдeльнoe днo - цeнa вcкope вoccтaнoвитcя и пoпpeт дaльшe.

This is how I interpret it.

a) We must stay above 10k for the next few weeks.
b) For this part, we need at least a second week to compare candles. Week two candle's bottom should not hit the bottom of the previous week's candle. The Investopedia term for this is a higher low. The lowest of each week should be higher as we progress. View picture of a higher low below.

Example here.
http://fxbinarypoint.com/attachments/ch-png.11/

Millionero

sr. member

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Merit: 423

The latest weekly candle from bitstamp
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

How does this relate to what Vanga said here

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - as it closes. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.
B любoм cлyчae нaдo cмoтpeть нa нeдeльнyю cвeчy - кaк oнa зaкpoeтcя. Ecли 10к ycтoит нa нeдeльнoм ypoвнe, ecли нe yдapит в пpeдыдyщee нeдeльнoe днo - цeнa вcкope вoccтaнoвитcя и пoпpeт дaльшe.

Hope_Trader

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 1

Quote from: greensheep on December 24, 2017, 01:02:03 PM

Quote

Three words for the same thing. It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant. When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.

Ok, seems thus like we are having a OR a positive outcome OR something between bad and good which can end both ways OR worst case scenario back to six months ago and several years of nothing interesting and then moon.
Looks like a mexican standoff now, everybody is looking at everybody, what just happened and what is gonna happen now.
Fascinating but also scary as hell
I'm thinking rather 1 or 2, 3 is actually doomsday scenario to me, but it sure could Shocked

this is precisely why I think ranging similar to post April 2013 is on the cards. Traders will trade both sides, the range will get tighter, and eventually we'll continue upwards. Too many long term bulls for this to really drop IMO. Despite the propensity towards mass panic for all the newcomers, I'm sure enough have been indoctrinated into the hodl mentality by now, and also enough experienced bitcoin traders who've seen it all before ready to scoop up coins at key levels.

Luc hasn't really given us much here, he's given us the classic "up, down or sideways" possibles that a market always has. All of them end in up though, ofc Wink

greensheep

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Quote

Three words for the same thing. It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant. When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.

Ok, seems thus like we are having a OR a positive outcome OR something between bad and good which can end both ways OR worst case scenario back to six months ago and several years of nothing interesting and then moon.
Looks like a mexican standoff now, everybody is looking at everybody, what just happened and what is gonna happen now.
Fascinating but also scary as hell
I'm thinking rather 1 or 2, 3 is actually doomsday scenario to me, but it sure could Shocked

Topic: Analysis - page 56. (Read 941579 times)