Topic: Analysis - page 59. (Read 941567 times)

I thought for a moment Bitcoin would go under $ 10,000, I think everybody had this idea in mind. It would mean a huge fall. I think we can see more sudden price changes this week.

10400 (at least on some exchanges) could be enough, maybe, but what do I know.
let's see what's the word from the masterluc would be.

Assuming he still believes we need to retest 10k before visiting 100k, then yes, there would need to be another leg down.

That's the more difficult (to predict) part.
I am sure that ML would say something.

Does that mean after retracing 62% of the move, BTC will go down for another leg?

19700 to 11300, then retrace 62% of the move.

I don't understand.  62% of the peak is somewhere around 12k.  So what do you mean by 62% around ~16500?

Vanga is superactive today, lots of wisdom.

will not quote his opinion about competition since it is a bit upsetting, but here is the interesting bit:


Goggle translate:

I draw the following conclusion: We are transitioning from fiat to crypto as a planet [or whatever of it that is more relevant]. Very strong forces are behind this. This would be my read on it.

My personal interpretation is that this is a phase shift (similar to solid>liquid>gas>plasma).
Where would it end: in a new phase (for a while).

Technically, MA 20 is around 15000, 62% Fib around 16440-16600 or so.
Will we reach 62% before retracing the bottom? Nobody knows.

If I remember rightly he has full faith in layer two. He posted something inspirational about it a while back. I'm pretty sure he's not the type of guy who pays his dog grooming bills in BTC.

What is masterlucs opinion on the fee problem?

Careful optimism? From the comments:

Sounds to me like he's saying we bounce here...

Now the price has flown from the daily top BB directly to the lower deviation. Somewhere from 11,000 and below buy all 100500% safe.

At the very least, we will return to daytime MA20, and then in general we will cut this fall to the level of 62% of Fibonacci.

Who understands this - what are you waiting for? (the song is called Chance)

Where exactly are the 62% Fib level and MA20 level?

Now the price has sunk from the daily top BB directly to the lower deviation. Somewhere from 11000 and below to redeem all 100500% safe.

At the very least, we will return to daytime MA20, and then in general we will cut this fall to the level of 62% of Fibonacci



That's what Google Translate says, not sure what it all means.  Anyone can read Russian?

Gd it's so cryptic. What are you saying ML? Lol

I was just about to post it but you beat me to the punch bimmerhead 

New post:

Im just an amateur but I use the site bitcoinwisdom which has a Fibonacci tool.  I look for the most significant area and then plot in extensions as per the graph tools provided.   So taking the November selloff you get projections for significant areas such as the recent ATH and the possible pullback area of $15,771 which did appear to me to have some support before becoming a top  some hours ago.

We are returning to November prices here, theres never any certain bottom price its just an aid to judging better movement.

https://pasteboard.co/GZob5ki.png

Before I say anything I did read the earlier disdain for alts that luc has, but on this occasion it may be worth bringing them up.


Something that's been bothering me for some time are these charts, and now that this sell off is starting to sink in, I think there may be a clue here. The charts are almost too perfect, but as you can see, the lower trendline of ethbtc had massive support, and btc sold off massively at that time despite being in a full blown parabolic rise. The alts were respected and money moved from btc to them. LTC also pumped massively. I don't think we should discount the action of alts.

So, in isolation, luc has compared this BTC run to the April 2013 run, and has previously suggested a wave 4 coming which are generally quite long correctives. If the ether charts are remotely correct, then the arbitrary targets I drew would give us BTC at $10k at the time ether reaches a value of 0.4 btc or $4k. Please bear in mind I just drew those lines freehand looking at the general trajectory of previous waves so there is no real accuracy there. The trendlines give us something to work with, so you can pick any date along the upper trendline and see what you come up with for a BTC price.

So a price of 10k at those ether valuations simply points to a ranging BTC market. Nothing else I could think of made sense if those charts are to be taken seriously. Given that the post 2013 correction/sideways market lasted for about 6 months, I think luc's earlier suggestion of modelling this run on that year makes a lot of sense given these other clues.

A lot is similar in this market now in terms of the behaviour and the rapidly evolving fundamentals, challenges to the network, lots of new participants, news/hype cycle, exchanges overloaded, people getting burnt, all that stuff... We may even have a new Gox on the cards if the rumours around BFX are true. It's all just an order of magnitude bigger. But humans are humans, markets are markets, lots of noobs got involved, now they are getting burnt in time for Christmas. It makes sense the market needs some time out and some time to coil up again.

Also if the ether charts play out cleanly, they suggest a massive ether sell off once the run is done and ethusd falls out of the wedge, and a move to btc in time to start to give btc some momentum and get a sideways market trending up. So BTC would still be king


Thoughts would be appreciated, cheers




EDIT: not really sure why my image is not displaying... if anyone can please let me know how to fix it? Is it because I'm a new account perhaps?

EDIT2: I also meant to say, I wouldn't be surprised if BTC hits somewhere below 60%... The 2013 run sold off around 80%, I doubt we hit that level but $5-6k wouldn't be surprising. Lastly, I can see a case for ethusd just dropping like a stone and these charts getting voided... So feel free to void my analysis and let me know why

EDIT3: We my just drop out the ethusd wedge from here, and touch a new lower trendline... so, if that happens my idea is void.