I'm not a moron. I've been trading Bitcoin and alts for almost a year and watched the market develop.
Supply is only one half of the price equation. The other half is demand. Lack of supply only matters if there is a lot of demand and if there's one thing that kills demand in alts it's the fact that a coin has 'had it's pump'.
For Blackcoin, that was it. After that it's too risky because we've seen the top and new coins are emerging every day. The piranha have left the carcass and are off to feed on fresh flesh.
This "pump & dump" cycle is only going to accelarate until there's an almighty culling of alts. Just look at cryptsy. There are loads of them sitting on 1 Satoshi already.
If you want a long term investment then Bitcoin or a 2nd generation alt is your man.