Just a comment on price :
Bitcoin is in a cooling phase now for at least the next 3-4 weeks. Probably staying in the 440-460 range for up to the next month.
There is an opportunity for alt coin prices to take advantage of this window.
You may see Factom rise in this time frame
As well as some other alts.
I dont think we ll see any major movement in the next month or so of any coin. After that, halving starts to kick in. BTC goes up for sure, the rest, well, we ll see.
most alts did lower in price already as preparation of what will come
i expect in fact a glorious rise of alts after bitcoin halving
and i expect the halving to have much less impact than people belive
that BTC did recover from like 250 to 500$ will be the halving effect
it could spike up to 800 but it wont stay there
500-600$ is what i expect BTC price 2 months after halving
and the guys who shift their BTC towards alts at the halving spike will smile a lot
+1 This is close to what I think will happen. No major BTC growth but still growth. Alts will probably also get lots of attention.
Could be right, but I believe that Bitcoin is very hard to predict. That's why I think more in scenarios and a lot of "if's". Safe is: The Bitcoin-price will play a role for Factom and the whole market. And my guess is, that we will see a rising BTC-price because miners need it after the halving. If it wouldn't rise the result most likely will be more centralization out of economical reasons. That's why I expect a natural price-rise and if that shouldn't happen: manipulation. Not just out of short-term-profit-intentions but like I've said: I believe it will need a higher price.
The scenarios for Bitcoin are in my opinion:
1. It could theoretically even go down. It's unlikely but always possible and some problems (Blocksize-debate for example) are not solved yet. And while there might be no objective reason to dump Bitcoins, something like the "Mike-Hearn-Affair" is always possible. Or if Mr. Wright should find his keys and move some early coins, the market might panic... ;-) (but yes, not very likely).
2. It could stay where it is for some time, little up and little downs. It's possible for some weeks maybe, but I believe it's very unlikely over the next months. A stable BTC-price would be my favorite scenario because it would give Factom and others time and room to grow (first), but the halving is not even 2 months ahead:
http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com 3. It could steadily increase over months. But I'm not sure if that is likely or not. I more believe that the combination of a stable rising Bitcoin-price plus the halving in mind would lead into a hype.
4. Hype: The price could explode like it did in late 2013. And that's what I believe will happen. Not sure when and how high it can go but even new ATH's are possible. I believe even 5000 Dollar are possible. Right before the bubble in 2013 there was the Silk-Road-Crash and the ATH was 13 times above just 2 months later.
I expected scenario 4 earlier to be honest. I expected it already last year and then I believed it would happen earlier this year etc. Maybe it won't happen but I believe it's more a question of "when" than a question of "if". And of course, nobody knows if it "just" doubles or if we will see a new ATH. And it could be that it doesn't happen at all, but it would need bad news.
But, currently I'm nearly all in Factom. And I know that some maybe would ask why I stay in Factom if I believe Bitcoin will shoot up? The reason is: The longer it lasts until the BTC-price goes up, the higher the chances that we could see a rising Factom-price before.
If I should be wrong with what I believe about the BTC-price and it should stay where it is or even go down, Factom has more potential and could be also the safer place to be. Factom is also better if there should be really bad problems with Bitcoin. I don't expect that and in such a scenario projects like Ethereum would benefit more than Factom, but Factom is flexible enough not to be totally dependent on Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin should start a pump soon while Factom still needs some time, the price for FCT's would go down first. That's safe in my opinion. But: With a delay more and more BTC would flow into other projects. And especially because Factom has natural relations to Bitcoin, it would benefit a lot, more than Ethereum which would most likely suffer.
So, my very simple conclusion is:
1) If it's all good with Factom, if there won't be good news but also no bad news, quiet times won't hurt. If it should go down a little bit because Bitcoin goes up, it's just a question of time that Factom would follow - especially if there will be good news in the future and I see no reason why not.
2) If the Factom-team should announce something big before Bitcoin goes up, Factom would establish at a higher price. Maybe even hype before Bitcoin (if that should happen). That's my favorite scenario... first Factom then Bitcoin and then Factom again. ;-)
3) If Bitcoin should go up and the Factom team would have good news during a hyping Bitcoin, Factom would benefit from the high attention of a hyping BTC-price.
4) If there would be bad news for Factom, and I mean something really bad, a rising Bitcoin-price would make it even worse - at least in short-term and a stable BTC-price wouldn't help much.
The interesting thing is: Bitcoin will have much effect on the Factom-price, in all scenarios. But just in short-term while the most important aspect will always be Factom itself - also in all possible scenarios. That's the reason why there are not much scenarios in which I would sell much Factoids. Just... if the market should drive it up to highs I wouldn't see as rational and if I would expect a hyping Bitcoin soon. Then I would sell, but with the intention to buy with more Bitcoin-value into Factom again at a cheaper FCT-price.
Plus: In Factom it's always possible that they come around the corner with something big. Some may complain about quiet times and a delayed release of M2, but I don't expect that they will announce an announcement. I expect that they will just release it without any "warning" before. That could be a risk for those who sell now or tomorrow or next week. In best case they would release M2 and come up with some great business-news (a great partnership) soon after.
It's also possible that there will be something like a worst-case-scenario somewhere in the future. But that's possible everywhere in Crypto and in (nearly) all investments. So, my basic-conclusion is: Without bad news or at least bad signs I see no reason to sell. And no matter what Bitcoin will do, before all it's a question of time.
And if we would compare different Bitcoin-price-scenarios in relation to ETH... While Factom will benefit of all scenarios, except bad news for Factom itself, Ethereum will benefit most likely just out of one scenario: A falling Bitcoin-price and even more if there are fundamental problems with Bitcoin. But if the Bitcoin-price should go up and solutions for the limited blocksize should be found, Ethereum could come into trouble while Factom would benefit.
