For me, the normal price would be at least $20 per 1 factoid. It will, but not soon.
If Factom catch up Ethereum, the price will be $70-$85 per 1 factoid. Many do not rule out that it is quite possible that the Factom caught Ethereum approximately through 1 year.
Today factoid 100% is very undervalued. The current price factoid is just a shame for the Factom team.
The future will show.
Well it's about a dollar right now so $20 is not really that outrageous.
In winter, I talked about that in spring factoid should cost $3 (this price we've seen), in summer factoid should cost $6 to the end of the year from $9 to $11. This forecast I make in February this year.
This is not going to happen. Remember, FCT price need to be low so people can get access to entry credits which is important cause it s the sole purpose of Factom. Personally, I do consider to sell everything and move to Etherum.
Much more cooperative development team and they do have an interest to increase the price.
The price for Factoids has no influence on the price for Entry Credits. The amount of used Entry Credits has an effect on the price of Factoids. It's not even needed to buy Factoids to be able to purchase Entry Credits because it's possible to buy EC's with $. For customers it's not even needed to know about the existence of Factoids. Factoids is something like a system-Currency.
And, just by the way: Some say the holy grail in Crypto is a bulletproof anonymous system. But I believe the holy grail in Crypto is a system in which customers don't even need to touch Cryptocurrencies. ;-) Factom found a very elegant solution to make that possible.
Let's say you want 1 Mio Entry Credits.
Scenario 1: You buy it with Factoids, so you have to buy Factoids first.
1 EC = $0.001 (fixed at this price)
1 Mio EC's = $1000
You buy 914 FCT's (currently each $1.094) and you send those to your EC-Address = 1 Mio EC's.
Scenario 2: You buy EC's with $.
You use your Credit Card to buy it in the Factom-Store (or from somebody else who offers this service) and they send Factoids on your EC-Address.
In both Scenarios the used/converted Factoids are "burned" - out of the system.
The thing about it is simple: The higher the price of Factoids the less Factoids are needed and "burned". If the price for Factoids is down more Factoids are needed for Amount x of Entry Credits.
What does that mean for the Factoids-price and why could it be a good investment?
The more the system is used, the more Entry Credits will be used. The more Entry Credits = the more Factoids will be "burned". At the same time, after Milestone 3, there will be about 73,000 new FCT's each month (payment for federated server).
That means: If Factom should become successful, and let's say there would be a demand for about 1 billion EC's per month, a price of $13.7 per FCT would be needed - otherwise more Factoids per month would be burned than new created.
Calculation:
1 billion EC's * $0.001 = $1 Mio
$1 Mio / 73,000 = $13,69
I can't know if that (a huge demand like that) will happen and if, nobody knows when. But if you think about possible use cases you'll find out: It can be used for a ton of different purposes. And if you read about "Big Data" you'll find out: There is no lack of data and there are a lot of problems to organize data, to secure data, to connect data - in time. Factom offers solutions for all kinds of problems with data - for companies but also for private persons.
Conclusion: It's all about the question if Factom will become successful or not. And I believe that there won't be a way in the middle. If they will become successful I believe: It will be about tons of data and huge amounts of Entry Credits. The reason why I believe that is what is called network-effect. The more it's used the more incentive to use it for others. The more it's used for one purpose, the more incentive to use it for other purposes as well. Because data, especially data-in-time, is nearly always connected in some ways with other data. That's the case for one company and that's the case for whole economies. That's even the case for private persons.
Second Conclusion: If the Factom-team is able to develop it the way it's planned, I see no reason why it shouldn't become successful. The only reason I can think of are competitors with better solutions. But it's not easy to make it better because the base-principle is about simplicity. It has to be stable. In the announcement-post they say: "Factom is most easily understood as a protocol that provides unlimited books of blank paper." That's a nice comparison. Doesn't sound like the next big thing, but blank paper is really useful and it's pretty hard to make it better than blank. ;-)
The rest is a question of applications which has to be userfriendly - but a company that wants to use Factom will develop applications for individual purposes or pay members of Factom to do that.
In my opinion Factom could turn out as the first project in Crypto that will be really useful, solve real problems. Ethereum is a great project but I believe it's possible that it will turn out as "scientific-project". Needed as experience to find out what's possible and what is not and how something like that (smart contracts) can be done or not be done, and where the limits are. In the end it could turn out as not stable enough. It has to face a lot of problems because it's much more complex by design.
Factom is like a stable base on a stable base. At the same time it's very flexible, can anchor in multiple blockchains, can connect with all kinds of useful Applications, and it's even possible to build different Factom-systems on top of Factom - it can grow into other use cases. That's why I believe Factom is the project with the highest potential and, in comparison with ETH for example, it involves less risk.
P.S.: I didn't write this just for you. I believe that a lot of people still don't really understand the "Factoids --> Entry Credit - principle" and how to see Factom in general.
