Yes I have been pondering this question for some time too.
It would be very useful to know how the odds compilation will work for on-chain betting. If the Wagerr team cannot put out accurate prices for the markets it will cover then the whole operation will just be the same as a soft bookie that is going to get torn apart by shrewd punters.
I'm mostly invested in Wagerr because I want to use the actual betting service (I'm also invested because i think this could be a very valuable crypto ecosystem in the future). But unlimited bet sizes at a bookie that doesn't restrict accounts is unheard of... and there's a reason for that. A bookie that doesn't protect itself from smart bettors will get destroyed. So my question is how will Wagerr protect itself from bettors that know how to beat the book? If bettors aren't restricted then the only way to protect yourself as a bookie is to put out accurate odds and that is very very hard to do.
There will most likely be some sort of restrictions of course, especially for small-market bets against the chain. You guys are completely right in that running on-chain bets will be extremely complex with massive amounts of potential risks, especially if not managed properly. This is why h2h and multi-user will be implemented first (and are lower fees) - there will always be someone on the other side taking the risk for these types.
For the on-chain bets we've brought in a few of these same smart bettors that you're talking about, Jason(MMAforMoney) and Sean(SuparTipstar). They will review all of the processes from as many angles as possible, and make recommendations for a more secure and efficient system. These two are the real deal and I'll see about maybe getting one or both to come here and answer some of the more technical questions from you all, you can check them out on twitter where they post a lot of their own solid picks for free. Then there are quite a few other long-time bettors that aren't a part of the team, but still make solid contributions. David has honestly done a great job in listening to these experienced bettors and in trying to implement their suggestions. Some people will try to say "Oh he's just a doctor, what could he really know about blockchains and gambling?", but it's pretty clear he's quite intelligent and could learn just about anything if he has enough motivation.
I can't really go into too much detail yet about how we plan to handle on-chain betting initially, but we're well aware of the points you guys are making. It's actually good to see a bit more serious talk around here, which is why I wanted to respond. What I can say for sure though is that the network of masternodes/oracles will eventually run the network, so a better question might be how would you (or a group of users) handle these issues? Developers would really only be able to submit proposals, it would ultimately be up to you guys to decide on which one(s) to implement.
I'm not sure the community realizes just how much control they will have over the network. It's pretty much impossible to see which ways this thing will go and a great deal is subject to change due to our decentralized nature. This is a fairly unique project which we hope will be disruptive to the gambling industry because it has been failing its users more and more in recent years...especially with the global patchwork of regulations further complicating things. With that said though, Wagerr will still try to do its best to work with existing structures of the industry.
Edit - When I said restrictions above, I mainly meant overall limitations on bet sizes that apply to everyone...not restrictions on winning bettors. We actually want those types of people, their achievements should be promoted instead of trying to restrict them unfairly or even outright ban them. I'm sure many of them would eventually get interested in running a masternode and using their knowledge to improve the network, there would certainly be a lot of incentive to do so....more than pretty much any other network at least.
Thanks for the reply.
It seems to me that the most valuable part of this project is its decentralization and the removal of power from bookmakers and governments, bringing freedom for anybody who wants to bet anywhere in the world.
I therefore do not believe it is of great importance to compete with other bookmakers on odds/lines/prices. Wagerr could succeed with a larger spread than the major bookmakers and in fact it might even be a prerequisite for its success. The best priced bookmakers in the world put enormous amounts of effort into producing accurate prices for sports and this allows them to offer tighter spreads (better odds on both sides of an event). But if Wagerr is going to be using some form of market price scraping and producing its odds second hand then it is going to suffer from time lags allowing it to be picked off by arbitrageurs and betting syndicates which will cause the on-chain book balance to be massively asymmetrical. Or if Wagerr wants to produce its own odds it's going to have to hire very skilled odds compilers which is very costly.
My point here is that Wagerr is offering a market to people who can't normally bet and who are unlikely to be price conscious when betting. They are what economists would call price inelastic. Offering these customers great prices doesn't increase their betting volume and it doesn't increase the on-chain bookmaking profitability.
I guess it all comes down to who the target market is. Offer great prices if you want to attract betting syndicates and smart punters. Offer great accessibility, fast payouts, fast settlements, user protection, lots of markets, etc along with quite good odds if you want to attract everybody else.
Ideally I'd like to see great prices on offer too but I can't see that working unless there is some hidden balancing mechanism in the valuation of Wagerr tokens themselves. If the on-chain betting is paying out more than it's bringing in is this balanced out by devaluing the currency, in the same way that printing billions of dollars devalues the dollar?