Topic: [ANN] Iridium (IRD) - People are Power - Community build crypto - page 122. (Read 149832 times)

Well, so, yes. Miners absolutely shouldn't want to sell less than their cost.

But I think if miners are smart they shouldn't want to sell less than the coin's value. And typically there's very little relation between a coin's value and the cost of mining it, especially close to launch.

If you go in with the mindset of selling at or close to cost, miners are just leaving the real money for speculators. Speculators will buy it off miners at or close to the cost of mining it, and then sell it at the value of the coin - which can be thousands of time more.

Why leave that kind of money on the table for others to take? Especially for a coin like this that can conservatively be estimated to be worth 20,000 satoshi each?

Miners shouldn't sell lower than their cost, I agree. They are after all having an oppurtunity cost by mining this rather than other currencies like XMR.

I liked this project. Full of either premine shitclones or scam ICOs. I'll check it out with mode details.

The stratum (pool) difficulty rises as you submit shares faster and faster to prevent share spam, what's your hash rate and the stratum difficulty when it supposedly stops finding shares?

i'm running the ccminer they linked up front on some nvidia gpus. the tk and mine77 pools run for a few minutes before they just stop finding shares, and i cant even get connected on global pool

I tried only http://ird.globalpool.cc/#
It's working nicely so far, so not bothering with others
I do set claymore cryptonight to reset every 30 minutes though, just in case

which pool is working best for you?

I am currently. Just wanna mine it somehow, looks promising.
Mining on four GPUs and one CPU. 2 RX 460 4GB, 1 RX 570 4GB, 1 RX 580 8GB, 1 R7 1700 @ 3.9 Ghz. Total of ~ 2200 h/s, gaining ~ 5 coins per half an hour.

anyone gpu mining on this?

Demand affects price, sure, but so does supply.

If Miners are smart about it, they'll hold onto their coins until prices are bid up to a price commensurate to it's value.

That's all fine and dandy but I doubt anyone would buy this coin at 37380 sats. It's only worth as much as people are prepared to spend on it.

With this much difficulty, how people are finding it mining to be profitable?
Can anyone share some calculation, how you are estimating because my formulas suggest better to mine some other new coin rather then mining at this difficulty

50 sats?  I think that's a heavy undervalue.

Let's look at the potential of Iridium, with citations to my assumptions:

ANN tells us (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ann-iridium-ird-people-are-power-community-build-crypto-2150442):
-No Premine
-Fair launch
-LOW TOTAL SUPPLY: most of supply emitted in year 1 (18,750,000 of 25,000,000).  This means this will not be a dumpmine coin, because mining rewards will get low soon -> early holders will get massive reward.
-CryptoNote coin

On the downside, roadmap is a little unclear, but this lets us implement a strong comparable: ByteCoin (BCN), another cryptonote coin which has little utility right now (their "ecosystem" is all pools/exchanges, which means they have no real functionality yet, see https://bytecoin.org/ecosystem/).  BCN has a nethash of 4 MH/s (https://minergate.com/blockchain/bcn/blocks) and a market cap of $287 million (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bytecoin-bcn/).

Iridium has a nethash of ~147 KH/s (https://mine77.net/).  Let's discount that to 140 KH/s because it might be volatile right now.  So 140 KH/s out of 4 MH/s is 3.5%.

If we value Iridium at 3.5% of BCN, that's US$10.05 million.  But of course, we must discount for the 3.5 year head-start of BCN.  On March 12 2014, BCN launched (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bcn-bytecoin-secure-private-untraceable-since-2012-512747).  Crypto market cap was US$9.167 billion that day (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/).  Today, crypto market cap is US$144.134 billion (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/).  So crypto market cap was only 6.36% of today's market cap on the day BCN launched.

If we apply 6.36% to the US$10.05 million potental for Iridium (to discount it back 3.5 years), we get a US$638,860 market cap estimate for Iridium today, right now, based on current hash (as hash and time increase, value will increase).  The US$638,860 is the value of the current supply already emitted.  Also consider that SIGT (a recent no premine coin), a currency with a roadmap and a plan but no product, has a market cap of US$4 million after less than two months (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/signatum/).  So over $600,000 for a new coin with a fair launch and no premine is not out of the ordinary, and very achievable.

Now, current supply is a little hard to figure out because the block sizes are not uniform.  Users are reporting block rewards ranging from the 40s to about 94 (see https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.21584105 and https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.21587151).  If you keep an eye on "Last Reward" at a couple of the pools (https://mine77.net/), you will see the same - block rewards fluctuate from 94 to 60 to something in the 40s.

Let's take a buyer-friendly assumption, and assume all blocks are size 95.  This is buyer-friendly because the more I increase the current Iridium supply in this estimate, the lower the price is.  I am giving a maximum possible supply.

Current blockheight is 4283**.  That suggests a current supply MAX of 4283*95 = 406,885.

Price then is simply US$638,860 estimated current cap divided by 406,885 max current supply = US$1.57 per Iridium.  If we conservatively assume $4200 per bitcoin (price as of writing is $4122) then the satoshis value is 1.57/4200 = .00037380 Bitcoin or 37380 satoshis.

If you want to argue that's too high, by all means do so, but I have given a very conservative estimate of value and even my large overestimate of supply illustrates how small the supply of this coin really is.  So please argue against the math, not some generic notion of why this is too high.  I realize the supply is growing, but so is value in terms of hash and time, and given that more than 50% of blocks seem to have rewards in the 40s (unlike my assumption that all are 95), I have probably already estimated the price at nearly half of what it should be.  If you want to apply a further haircut for risk, by all means do so, but this coin is likely worth over 20k satoshis, and possibly as high as 50k.



**Note: I wrote this like 60 mins ago.  There may be a few more blocks since then, but I have already severely overestimated supply (thus underestimating price), and even another 400 blocks will only affect my calculations by 10%.  Some of the other numbers may have varied a little too, but the Iridium hash is up to 150 KH/s, which is 7% higher than the value in my estimate.  So my estimate is still conservative.

TL;DR: good mathematical basis for estimating value at 37380 sats.  If you want to apply a margin of +- 50% for risk, that still means a value over 20000 sats.  People need to really understand how low the supply is.  Don't sell at 50 sats per Iridium.

Edit: some math fixes.

Hey there, like IRD-PoolOperator said, this an automated (and temporary) action taken by the pool software to protect against DoS attacks when invalid or duplicate shares come in. However, in this case, the pool software was being a little aggressive because it sees everyone coming in on stratum+tls as coming from the same IP address. One person mining over stratum+tls crossed the invalid share threshold, likely due to a hardware issue, and it lumped all of you together and banned all of the TLS miners at once.

So that's my bad. I've adjusted things so it won't do that again.

Hey there, like IRD-PoolOperator said, this an automated (and temporary) action taken by the pool software to protect against DoS attacks when invalid or duplicate shares come in. However, in this case, the pool software was being a little aggressive because it sees everyone coming in on stratum+tls as coming from the same IP address. One person mining over stratum+tls crossed the invalid share threshold, likely due to a hardware issue, and it lumped all of you together and banned all of the TLS miners at once.

So that's my bad. I've adjusted things so it won't do that again.

mine77 seems to have banned me.


Any idea what's going on?

And it's not just about what they are willing to do to others for money, but even to themselves! They have no clue about sustainability and how much good solidarity or fairness can do to society as a whole. That's how it is...