But if I understsand it right, it won't be just 22,840 new Coins, because that's just an example of one Angel Investor who owns 1 million Coins. The problem is, if I'm right, there are 500 Mio Coins in the hand of seed and angel investors and the founders, plus the staking. So it has to be multiplied by 500.
22,840 * 500 = 11,420,000 new Coins at the end of the second months. At the current value that would be 685 BTC.
And at the end of every month they'll sell more, because of staking. What does that mean? The market will anticipate that and drop at/before the end of every months... Even if there would be a potential user growth that could potentially catch those coins, just to hold the current value, the uncertainty will have some psychological impact. And it's very unlikely that this project will attract so many new Investors just to hold the value.
Plus: If the price won't rise after some time, the experience after ICO's have shown, that the price goes down, because Investors lose patience.
Honestly: Am I wrong with something I'm writing here? My problem really is that I think I must be wrong... or that this is the strangest distribution-model ever. If I'm right this Coin has no chance because of the mathematical design and the psychological impact it has.
And for me it's still uncertain what will be with the 2,4 billion Coins of the "non-profit-organisations". What does that mean: non-profit? They won't ever sell any Coins? Or will they sell 2% of their holdings as well? Because that would mean: plus 66,236,000 new Coins at the end of the second month = 3974 BTC at current value.
Anybody?
Tempus - your calculations seem about right I think. Assuming all investors want to sell all their unrestricted every month, which may or may not be the case depending on long term value increase from price and PoS mining. If the user numbers are growing and more and more games etc are released and this really becomes a big mainstreem thing with millions of users, they probably expect to make a lot more longer term. That would be a game changer.
This distrubution is definitely a wild thing, but at the end of the day it's a play at growth and user adoption. Can a premine be used in a smart way to give incentives for commercial actors to build applications, integrate NEU in their services, etc? And to do mainstreem marketing and offer small "free trials" of coins to people outside of the cryptocurrency world so that they can try it out.
From reading Neucoin's "strategic plan" it says that the foundations are non-profit in the sense that they only exist to help grow the value and utility of the coin. Foundations will distrubute their coins to companies that help Neucoin grow (like exchanges or user acquisition partners or game developers) and as "free trial" to consumers. Foundations may sell coins to pay for marketing/media, etc that requires fiat money, but never to hoard, and that such sales would always be disclosed in quarterly reports, etc.
Sources:
http://www.neucoin.org/en/wiki/#foundations and more specific info about how they will distrubute the coins on:
http://www.neucoin.org/en/wiki/#distribution-planOne of the most important sentence in your post is:
"If the user numbers are growing (...)"But, where should it come from? Every Investor who looks at the premine, the more than strange distribution and the huge inflation will step back. It only attracts some players and those who believe this is "something big" without thinking through and probably without much money. They would need MANY little Investors just to hold the current value and it would nee a continuing growing.
I see no way, that any professional coder with the potential for technological innovation will risk his credibility being part of this. I don't see any way that any professional company will implement it.
And if there is not enough user-growth to hold the current value, what will they do and what are they most likely already doing? They have to manipulate the market - buy themselves, to simulate attraction, maybe to get some growth about a rising price.
But let's assume they want BTC, and this assumption is obvious (visible in the distribution), they have to sell at some time. Maybe they'll drive the price a little bit, and they're able to do that. But it's a risk out of their perspective because they don't know if that would build enough real buy support to get back the invested BTC's.
Another risk out of their perspective is the question if they can trust each other? ;-) Together they hold that much of the current supply that I wouldn't be surprised if it would lead to some paranoia between each other. And even if everybody will operate like planned: At the end of each month they have to make a race who is first on the market to get the better prices...
Really, this is a weird project with a very limited potential and I doubt that it will survive the first year. Even out of their own perspective it's not very clever. They probably believe that they can control it because they have control about the distribution, but they will have to make a decision if they want to hold the current value or sell/distribute it... and at the same time they will stake tons of new Coins and fear each other.
It's very interesting because it involves some very strange psychological aspects, not just regarding the community and the market but also in the group behind. If I see it right, it needs just one of those behind, to crash the market. And I believe that it needs just one or two little crashs to turn it into an ongoing downward-dynamic.
"PoS increase" is about 0.27 % per day...
