Author

Topic: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs - page 509. (Read 1260354 times)

sr. member
Activity: 486
Merit: 262
rm -rf stupidity
Chips there and production already started?  It's 6:30pm (correct?) so hopefully orders shall be rolling out.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
Here are a few from your "group buy".

Please don't troll this thread. Thinking that the difficulty will raise nonstop with 15% is simply unreal and it's bad intended.

Let's see what happened around the time of my prediction and afterwards:
I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

Not sure what's the wrong assumption here.

Quote
Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.

Ok after specs, but what was the market $/Gh back then? I can't remember when did FC announced the pricing. Any help?

Around 8million units are needed just for the mainstream server/switch/san production a year.
or around 22 000 servergrade psu's a day just for mainstream servers, no clear numbers for other industrial applications or whitelabel servers.

So yeah, must be soooo hard for them to have to produce another few thousand for spondoolies...

Production capacity availability are 2 different things! Nobody said they can't produce a few thousand PSUs for SP-Tech, but the timing is critical. Look at TSCM. They have the biggest production capacity when it comes to chips, but yet the availability is their biggest kept secret and people pay a premium to have chips delivered faster.
newbie
Activity: 47
Merit: 0
Quote
How can that be? Server psus are probably one of the most common parts they are using.
Do you really think you can buy >2k PSU off the shelf with immediate delivery? Why are you underestimating the sales force of the PSU manufacturers?
If you consider that just the top3 brands will produce and ship an expected 2,9-3,1million servers in 2014 and 35% of those are delivered with more than 1 psu.
Puts just those 3 brands at a need of 4,5-5million server-grade psus a year.
Another 2-2,2million switch/san psu's from again just top3 brands.
Considering marketshare the lower brands that adds another 20% ontop of those numbers.

Around 8million units are needed just for the mainstream server/switch/san production a year.
or around 22 000 servergrade psu's a day just for mainstream servers, no clear numbers for other industrial applications or whitelabel servers.

So yeah, must be soooo hard for them to have to produce another few thousand for spondoolies...
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509

Please don't troll this thread. Thinking that the difficulty will raise nonstop with 15% is simply unreal and it's bad intended.

I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

Quote
Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
Why? Did they secure 3 months worth of components for the sp10s?

I don't know how many months they secured, but I prefer having them secured and paid than to take the risk of not having the components available when needed for various reasons.

to interject when is gen 3 coming out?

Winter!
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
to interject when is gen 3 coming out?  The sp30's are too slow to market preorder puts more risk onto the buyer.  Also btc and bank transfers does the same.  it increase buyers risk while decreasing sellers risk.

I would love to order in stock sp40 at 10 th and 0.3 watts a hash.  with a cc or paypal not btc.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
Do you need to buy pcbs, components, and server psus months in advance? I'm sure they are a few other components that have long lead times but I really doubt the majority do.

As a customer I prefer them to secure the components in advance than to take the risk to buy them from stock when they could be unavailable.

Why? Did they secure 3 months worth of components for the sp10s?

Quote
Quote
How can that be? Server psus are probably one of the most common parts they are using.

Do you really think you can buy >2k PSU off the shelf with immediate delivery? Why are you underestimating the sales force of the PSU manufacturers?

I think you are underestimating the production capacity of PSU manufacturers.

Quote
Quote
How can you possibly know what the competition will be like in 2 months?

Or are you just completely guessing based on what is currently available?
After more than 1 year in the ASIC scene you should have at least some sort of educated guess. But as previously stated you are very very bad at predicting and acting for the future.

Must I find all the absurd predictions you have made?

I remember "I predict the whole miner/system (AM) will be well over 2$/GH".
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
Do you need to buy pcbs, components, and server psus months in advance? I'm sure they are a few other components that have long lead times but I really doubt the majority do.

As a customer I prefer them to secure the components in advance than to take the risk to buy them from stock when they could be unavailable.

How can you possibly know what the competition will be like in 2 months?

Or are you just completely guessing based on what is currently available?

After more than 1 year in the ASIC scene you should have at least some sort of educated guess. But as previously stated you are very very bad at predicting and acting for the future.
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1005
ASIC Wannabe
but I doubt you will get the same quality anywhere at the moment.

I'm curious to know what metric you are using for quality. Does loudness = quality?

1) the SP30 will be less loud due to 80mm fans
2) the SP1 (and thus the sp30 presumably) is the most compact, high-tech device out there. It reeks of quality from the slim design to the ~1300W-capable PSU to the fact that it weighs almost half as much per GH as any other competitor right now due to the small heatsinks
3) the interface is a snap to use, and the ability to control the clockspeeds, amperage, and fan speed is fantastic
4) the per-chip clockrates and voltage are perfect. Bitfury blew me away when they could control chips seperately, but Spondoolies nailed it i think
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
They have competitive pricing for their product, and that is it.

How can you possibly know what the competition will be like in 2 months?

Or are you just completely guessing based on what is currently available?

Quote
but I doubt you will get the same quality anywhere at the moment.

I'm curious to know what metric you are using for quality. Does loudness = quality?
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
Spondoolies is not a charity.

They have competitive pricing for their product, and that is it.

If you don´t like their pricing, go buy from some other company, but I doubt you will get the same quality anywhere at the moment.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
Did they not make any money from the sp10? I'd be surprised if they ended up with less than $10m profit.

Please break the numbers down for us because I really like to see how you got to that number. How many units do you think they sold in order to get $10m profit out of it?

It's just my guess. Do you really think that they did not make a profit?

My guess is ~5000 sp10s at $2,000 profit each.

Quote
Quote
This is a lousy excuse. At $0.1/gh (could be much lower) they would only need $1m for 3 months worth of sp30 chips. (at 500 sp30/month)

I see that you only quoted the cheapest part aka the chips. What about the rest? PCBs, components, server grade PSUs, cases. They aren't so cheap as the chips and they are not available to buy from stock in large quantities.

Do you need to buy pcbs, components, and server psus months in advance? I'm sure they are a few other components that have long lead times but I really doubt the majority do.

Quote
I'm betting that server grade PSUs in big numbers aren't so easy to find, or the custom PCBs.

How can that be? Server psus are probably one of the most common parts they are using.

Quote
The NRE is at least $3M and while I don't know the numbers I am sure that the NRE cost goes up exponentially for each process node so it seems pretty viable to have a $3M cost for a 28nm mask if you are having $1M fost a 40nm mask. Maybe someone can enlighten us with some proofs, instead of just words.

I'd love it if spondoolies would let us know exactly how much they spent on NRE. Doubt it would be nearly as expensive as some expect.

Quote
Quote
How do you explain bitmain,asicminer,bitfury,avalon, and a1 clones which have zero problem selling from stock? The majority of the network is powered by miners bought from stock.

Comparing apples with oranges yet again. I think that only Bitmain is a good comparision, the rest aren't. AM had an IPO which means money upfront from people before showing miners, Bitfury sold overexpensive pre-orders for their 400GH/s miners last summer (MetaBank) plus they self mined as soon as it was possible, Avalon had preorders for their B1, B2 and B3 batches and then they had ~$8M in hand for chips pre-orders which were sold to third party before being delivered/refunded to customers and the A1 clones they didn't have to pay for NRE so it was easier for them.

The difference is that once those companies were fully funded, they stopped taking preorders (besides KFC/BFL/SPtech).

Quote
Quote
But spondoolies is already is fully funded by VC is it not? I remember something about how they have enough funds to cover all batches if they need to.

The statement is true, but that would mean sacrificing gen3 NRE costs. Thinking into the future isn't your best skill Smiley

So you're basically admitting that they are milking their customers just so they can have their gen3 faster?

Seems legit.

If only AM had taken preorders for their gen3. Sure the specs would have been way off and every customer would have been fucked but they would probably already have gen4 by now.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
jimmothy you are so steaming today.

Did they not make any money from the sp10? I'd be surprised if they ended up with less than $10m profit.

It seems that both AM staff (aka FC) and AM shareholders (aka jimmothy) like to throw big numbers out there. 100PH/s in 2-3 months, $10m profit out of SP10s and so on. Please break the numbers down for us because I really like to see how you got to that number. How many units do you think they sold in order to get $10m profit out of it?

Quote
This is a lousy excuse. At $0.1/gh (could be much lower) they would only need $1m for 3 months worth of sp30 chips. (at 500 sp30/month)

I see that you only quoted the cheapest part aka the chips. What about the rest? PCBs, components, server grade PSUs, cases. They aren't so cheap as the chips and they are not available to buy from stock in large quantities.

Quote
Yes but how much of that $2m/month is long lead time parts?

Do you really think NRE is $3-5M?

I don't know exactly what makes up the NRE but I can't imagine a simple die shrink costs a bunch. AM's full custom 40nm cost less than 1m NRE.

I'm betting that server grade PSUs in big numbers aren't so easy to find, or the custom PCBs.

The NRE is at least $3M and while I don't know the numbers I am sure that the NRE cost goes up exponentially for each process node so it seems pretty viable to have a $3M cost for a 28nm mask if you are having $1M fost a 40nm mask. Maybe someone can enlighten us with some proofs, instead of just words.

Quote
How do you explain bitmain,asicminer,bitfury,avalon, and a1 clones which have zero problem selling from stock? The majority of the network is powered by miners bought from stock.

Comparing apples with oranges yet again. I think that only Bitmain is a good comparision, the rest aren't. AM had an IPO which means money upfront from people before showing miners, Bitfury sold overexpensive pre-orders for their 400GH/s miners last summer (MetaBank) plus they self mined as soon as it was possible, Avalon had preorders for their B1, B2 and B3 batches and then they had ~$8M in hand for chips pre-orders which were sold to third party before being delivered/refunded to customers and the A1 clones they didn't have to pay for NRE so it was easier for them.

Quote
Yes, the only benefit of preorders is reducing the risk on the company and shifting it to the customers.

You think that the company has 0 risk by taking pre-orders?

Quote
But spondoolies is already is fully funded by VC is it not? I remember something about how they have enough funds to cover all batches if they need to.

The statement is true, but that would mean sacrificing gen3 NRE costs. Thinking into the future isn't your best skill Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 251

Yes, there is absolutely no excuse for KNC taking preorders especially after they told us how much profit they made from gen1.
As long as people are willing to pay for pre-order, they will always exist.

This! Don't blame the company for taking pre-orders blame the people for paying. They'd have to think of another way to finance their product like a credit.
What companies like KNC do is simply spit in your face saying: We don't have a prototype yet, but give us the money we'll try to make one. But remember, NO REFUNDS.
And people still pay them. Whatever happens they deserve it.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
Except the sheep that go back to BFL, they have it coming (although I don´t wish it to them).
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250

When you get them?
July / early August.

And yes, I will only start the laughing once I receive them.

10-4

I hope you get that laugh.  I never hope for people who take risk to lose.

The risk is to high for me. I also do not believe firmly one way or the other in the profitability of their product.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250

Yes, there is absolutely no excuse for KNC taking preorders especially after they told us how much profit they made from gen1.

I listed three benifits to preorders above.  The people paid for the preorders.  Sounds like sucess to me.

I think what you intended to say was it was not necessary for them to use pre-orders, but as I have mentioned in numerous ways if a company can sucessfully use that funding strategy, it will generally always work to their advantage.

If you didn't get screwed on a preorder, let the market sort itself.
If you did, well, that was the result of your risk.

As long as people are willing to pay for pre-order, they will always exist.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500

When you get them?
July / early August.

And yes, I will only start the laughing once I receive them.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250

I will however laugh at you from the top of my fortress of sp30s.


When you get them?
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250


This is contradictory.
If you make less, there is less revenue to reinvest

In this fast paced environment, you need to grow fast to stay competitive.


Most business's don't have the option of preorder.  less profit is the better option vs failure. Lower profit is
still growth.



Prepayment is the only option for them, as they didnt have funding for all pre-orders to be produced ( we are talking about money for ~3 months here).


If the pre orders are paid in advance, how would they not have the funds to produce them?  Do they make them at a loss?



It would be unwise to settle for lower profits, as spondoolies needs to grow in order to stay competitive.

As long as there is a pre-order market for this sort of product, it would be unwise to not use it to the advantage of your company.

It absolutely would be unwise to settle for lower profits, when you have another option.  Most business' don't have that luxury.

Agreed, If customers will pay up front(pre-order) any businessman with a brain will take their money!


Jump to: