@kendog77 let's talk in September. You tell me your hashrate and power consumption and i will tell you my hashrate and my power consumption.
Secondly, its 3+ months till August.
I hope it works out for everyone, but I also reckon that you would have to be a bit naive to think that the SP30 will be out there on its own with no competition at the price point or even efficiency level. You think the Chinese are going to stop? You think that Innosilicon, the Avalon people, AM etc are just going to give up? I think theres even a reasonable probablility that KnC will have Neptune out there before then even though some may scoff.
I predict the next round of miners coming out of China will be significantly cheaper than the last round. I know that already the 820GH Avalon machine is down to 1900$ delivered, so am expecting the A1 boxes to drop accordingly and for newer 1.2/1.6/2 TH machines to be out sooner rather than later.
SP-Tech will have chips in hand early July, i hope that we will get some kind of demo or some performance numbers long before they start shipping units.
I don't think SP30 will have no competition, but i do think that the SP30 will be among the first ones (if not the first one) with that efficiency. AM is still struggling with their gen3 chip and it seems to be on pair with SP10 chips, KnC's 20nm chip will be around SP10 efficiency level too so it will take some time to catch up for the rest of the companies. As for China clones and such they may sell 1TH for 500$, but if they suck at power efficiency it's no good. By the time the competition will catch up with SP30 i'm sure that SP-Tech will be one step ahead.
All educated guesswork I am sure, and I hope for your group buy's sake that it works out that way, but remember, no-ones predicted efficiency has so far been on the money. SP10 is still only 1W/GH or maybe just under at its rated 1.4TH which is the same as A1 in the shipping Dragonminers from China. Even BITMAIN have shown they can adapt their design to get down to very close to those numbers with the S2. KnC's old tech isn't far off 1W/GH either.
Now the SP30 being a die shrink should hopefully pay off, but they are bumping up the output big time which may affect things, who knows, I hope your thoughts and guesses pay off, I'd be hedging and planning for it to be slightly off target just in case.
SP10 is 0.82W/GH if you measure it by 1400GH (1150W for this speed) Why do you say it's 1W/GH? What is the power draw for Dragonminers? S2 does 1W/GH and comes in pieces. KnC Jupiters are 1.1-1.2W/GH. Only Bitfury can achieve 0.8 or maybe 0.7W/GH. As said before I invite you and everyone to just buy one single unit so that they can compare themselves the quality of the products. Can't afford or don't want to buy a pre-order unit? Just buy one SP10 and you will see the difference.
How do you compare to something that's not available for 4 months?
Hashfast sierra looked like a bargain for 50Btc in sept of 2013 for delivery in November of 2013. Didn't turn out so well.
HashFail is run by Eduardo who is reminding me of Josh Zerlan. Check Eduardo's background and you will see and understand why they failed so much. SP-Tech have 2 VCs companies that overlook every move they make. It's not the same thing. Stop comparing apples with oranges!
This whole issue of power efficiency is a red herring, it is an end-of-life issue which is significant to profitability only when the cost of operating a piece of equipment approaches the value of the bitcoin it mines.
When difficulty is very high and bitcoin is cheap, miners have bigger problems than sucking the last 2 dollars a day profit from a large capital investment. Why don't you publish some numbers that will give your customers a reasonable expectation that they can recover the capital cost of an SP30 before you try selling this equipment on power efficiency ?
@raskul: don't bother trooper, you are on ignore till you start behaving L)L
If you think power consumption matters as much as 2 dollars per day then what can i say to you? Imagine having 2 farms both hashing at 5TH. One farm needs 5kW and one farm needs 2.5kW. Which one do you think it will last longer? Also take into consideration that besides small miners there are some big miners too. Big miners will need to pay an extra ~30% more on their power bill for keeping their units cool enough. Paying 30% more out of 5kW is something and paying 30% more out of 2.5kW is another thing. If your power bill is 10k$ you need to pay additional 3k$. That matters!
My estimates of getting a fiat ROI on the SP30 units is around 2-3 months. Of course it's very exchange rate dependent (meaning that if btc goes to 100$ then you won't get a fiat roi in 3 months) and also difficulty dependent, but that comes into second place since i don't think it will rise with 20% all the time like everyone is thinking. (last diff adjust was only 14% and the next one seems to be around 15%).
Relaxed thanks. Think I'll take bitmain for 1310/Th shipped within 48hrs. Though if spondoolies could guarantee shipping within 48hrs I'd consider them even at a higher price.
Then why not buy a lot of them right now? It seems that you are only wishing for hashing machines, but you don't seem to either have the money or the guts to really act like you say. Post pics when you get them before you start assembling them.