Topic: [ANN][DCR] Decred - Community Governance | Bitcoin Devs | Lightning Network - page 294. (Read 1201380 times)

A review of activity will be posted next week so we can take stock of where we're at as a project. v0.1.4 is being prepared right now, which includes a ton of work that isn't quite obvious to the public eye, unless you read Github development activity, as it involves pulling in a large number of fixes, improvements, and optimisations. There are also a number of distinct packages that have emerged for inclusion in the v0.1.4 release and will be documented in the development dispatch that accompany it. RFP-7 and 8 are also getting ready for announcement, so work can begin on those, which will have very visible impact on Decred. And of course, the GUI is progressing too with extra effort.

These are good milestones for review and then forecasting the project's activity based on what we've seen and done. It's important to remember that Decred did not set out with an explicit roadmap, so that users' desires and needs could be taken into account, rather than enforcing a strict policy of where we're going as a project and community. As these views develop organically in the user base, there comes a point where it's time to develop them into a framework and draft a defined proposed route. It may seem chaotic at times without a formal structure for it yet, but everything posted is reviewed and factor into that process. It wouldn't be very open and democratic if it's dictated down, instead of being built up, but there does need to be some actionable direction to make sure the ship is steered. That is the fine balance the project is still learning and adapting to, despite consistent and high development output, with phenomenal people getting involved in Decred.

The v0.1.4 release will mark a good point to document this progress, and paint a realistic future based on activity. The feeling is that it's better to forecast the shorter-term, to allow for continued community and development input, rather than trying to forecast so far into the future that none of those lofty goals are met. Next week will mark a good point to engage in that discussion and put something clear and actionable on the table for the next period.

where a roadmap?

98% of your tickets gets a call for a vote during 28 days. If you have bad luck and your ticket won't get selected for a vote, the ticket will expire after 142 days and you will get the coins back. I did many votes so far, none of my tickets became expired.

you can be voted before.
From the 63 tickets that I bought last week, 13 already have been voted.
The average is around one month so that almost all be voted

I believe the same, Decred is a great coin and technic. Staking long-term and waiting for success =)

But that's not very strange... all coins do that mate.
Invest for the long term
I think this coin will take 1 year before we really see its potential

These coin is very strange I had lost 5 btc I buy it at 2.5 and now is 1.5

$1.29, is this a new low?

Voting is like a lottery. There is no fixed time.

Do I understand it correct? If I buy a ticket, I'll have to wait 142 days, to get my coins back?

Simplified calculation - ideal conditions:
you have: 1000dcr
price per ticket (retargets every 144 blocks==roughly every 12hrs) - example: 14.8dcr/ticket + ticketfee (0.01) + txfee (0.01) = 15dcr/ticket
you can buy: 1000/15 == 66 tickets
POS reward per ticket: 1.78drc
So per 66 tickets you may get max. 66 x 1.78 == 117drc, at current price of 0,00305dcr/btc you may gain roughly 0.35btc. The soonest all your tickets can vote is around 28 days.

The process:
You buy tickets. Tickets will be moved to mempool. From the mempool POW miners will mine max. 20 tickets per block. If your ticket tx (sstx) gets mined and included in the block while the price of tickets you've paid lasts (remember it changes every 144 blocks), your ticket changes status to "immature". It will sit in the blockchain for 256 blocks (roughly 24hrs) before it can vote. After 24hrs, ticket changes status to "live" and from that moment can be selected to vote. Once that happens, you will get back price you have paid for the ticket + reward (1.78drc/ticket recently). So per ticket (bought for 15dcr), your reward will be around 11% per ticket.
Tickets are choosen to vote randomly. If the ticket is not selected to vote in roughly 140 days, it will get revoked and price you've paid will be returned minus tx fee.

The reality:
1. Price of tickets changes every roughly 12hrs + price of ticket reward every +-20days. Obviously, you want to buy at cheapest price possible to booster your gains. You can keep an eye on stats on Dyrk's https://dcrstats.com. As it stands now, ticket price swings from low (below 20dcr/ticket) to highs every roughly 3 days. So it is best to watch the swing and once you see wildly high price to get ready to buy on next retarget. Once price is too high nobody will buy tickets in that 144 blocks period, so the diff will swing down wildly, usually below 15drc/ticket (see POS historical price change graph on Dyrk's dcrstats page).
2. Expect 5-10% of your live tickets to not vote (either because they get revoked, missed or just expire)
3. To keep steady reward income from POS, you need to smoothen the variance by constantly adding to your live tickets pool. Which means you have to buy and rebuy once in a while when the ticket price is low to keep your percentage share in stakepool at +-constant level. E.g.:
StakePool size now (total live tickets num.) is roughly: 42300tickets
So if you want to calculate how much you might get per month for 1000dcr, you would go like this:
Max. tickets that can vote per 24hrs: 12*24*5 == 1440 votes
Max reward per 24hrs from POS: 1440 x 1.78dcr == 2563dcr
If you have initially bought 66 tickets at 15dcr using those 1000dcr == you now hold 66/42300 == 0.15% of the whole stakepool. So you may expect around 0.15%*daily POS reward (2563dcr) == 3.8dcr/day (or around 3.8/1.78 == 2 tickets per day will vote). But to smoothen the variance and get steady rewards, you need to maintain this share of stakepool. Stakepool size keeps changing (up or down) during ticket price retargets based on interest of people buying tickets. So my advice is get additional 500dcr, buy on low ticket price using your 1000dcr and then keep rebuying additional tickets on low price during the month using those 500dcr to keep your share in the stakepool. If you maintain the share, then the calculations might be good. Otherwise, it is mostly guesswork

yes my math was based on 10-20 decred as the amount needed to buy a ticket, now it's 30 or more


1000 decred give you around 20-25 ticket, let's assume 25 ticket

each ticket can give you 1.8 decred on a average 28 days, so around 0.15 per month

before the price was 10-20 so it was double of this, and the value was almost double, so the result was 4x, so around 0.6 per month, which was really good for a pos coin

dev when gui wallet coming.

Two additional stake pools are ready to support the network! Check out pool.d3c.red and stakepool.dcrstats.com. You can also look at their dedicated threads on the forum (pool.d3c.red and dcr.stakepool.net). OP text has been updated with links to these stake pools.

It depends on the amount you paid for the ticket
Last week I bought 63 tickets with 1000 DCR.
63 X 1.8 (ticket reward) = 113.4

DCRstats.com shows current ticket price (difficulty) as well as current block rewards, etc.

At current ticket price of 17.4 DCR and voting reward of 1.7809 per ticket, you would currently earn on average 10.24% compounding return on your DCR funds every 28 days (approximately).  With 1000 DCR, you could purchase 57.5 tickets and earn 102.40 DCR in roughly 28 days.  Note, like PoW mining there is variance, some tickets might be chosen to vote in an hour, some in 3 months.  The more tickets you have, the less variance you'll see.

So any educated guesses for current? Considering buying some and staking.

and now with POS pools diff will be higher.

i have done a simple math in the past about this, and it was 0.03 btc per day with 1k decred staking, however this was when decred was at 0.005 btc

Sure,
but even based purely on luck there is obviously a median and mid sum and %