Except that smart people don't cash out all at once. In fact, smart people never cash out.
They take a very strong position in a coin then only trade with a small fraction of it. They are smart, so they have BTC laying around too. They use the BTC to support the price when it goes down, buying cheap coins. They sell their trading coins (a small part of their total) on spikes, understandably, and re-buy lower. All told it stabilizes the coin value and increases their holdings.
Long term trends are determined by the quality of the dev, not what big holders do. If you think a dev is good, buy the coin early and hold. No games or trading are needed. The only trick is in identifying good devs.