I don't know how I'd react to market intelligence or how much weight I would give it if I were Bitmain. That's their judgment call, not mine. But Bitmain decided to disclose, at least in part, some aspects of their pricing methodology. And it seems that they put quite a bit of weight on market intelligence. Given its unreliability, I simply questioned whether they are putting too much weight. Sure, it's their money invested, not mine, but that doesn't mean that their decision-making process is infallible. The issue is weight, not reliability (though they are related), I never suggested (nor would I) that I can properly distinguish between reliable and unreliable market intelligence, certainly not in this case, given the limited amount of vague* information we received about that intelligence.
*I don't mean vague as a complaint - I'm sure it was vague for a reason.
That response is loaded with indecision, and that is not mentioning your three degrees of market intelligence (weight, reliability, unreliability). But now you have an inkling of what dilemma they face on a daily basis, I am just surprised you are adamant they got it wrong (knowing as you do that hindsight is a wonderful thing).
I'm surprised I'm adamant that they got it wrong as well, that doesn't sound like the message I was trying to convey.
Hmmm! Just the one thing though ....
1. When batch 5 & 6 were launched, they were priced at $320 (
BTC 1.14 at the time aka $280.7 per
BTC1).
2. After "confirming" their intel, bitmain ticked the price to $411 ( i.e
BTC1.464 at the above rate)
Bitmain justified the price rise based (as far as they have said) purely on that intel and the effect / implications it had on the previously projected bitcoin network difficulty rise in the short to medium term. We have to assume here that the market as a whole did not have that intel (and that was borne out with mini rally in
BTC value after the initial price rise and bitcoin releasing that intel).
Here's the punchline. If the market as a whole was working perfectly, and the (previously) projected network difficulty rise on the back of the 0.03W/Gh (or something like that) was factored into the value of
BTC, then the current rate to the $ should be ~$365 and not the current ~$295.
I suppose I can reserve judgement on whether it was the right level of price rise till the first bactch of the units ship on the 30th coupled with if the value of
BTC nears / equates to $365, but when rigs start shipping it usually results (rightfully) in a dip in
BTC value! Jury is OUT!
(I'll not go to the current $419 price as the above anology will suffice for my argument)