Serious question. Why are people buying these.
I would guess that most of those folks are betting on a large Bitcoin price increase around the time of the halfing.
I personally don't like the odds on such an increase being enough to matter, but won't be shocked to be wrong.
Doesn't seem to be any other reasonable scenario where the S7 will ever achieve RoI unless your electric is VERY cheap or free.
There is NO sign of Bitcoin price "following the difficulty" as one person keeps talking about, and no reason for it to do so.
There IS reason to believe in a jump in price near the halfing (probably a little before) due to speculators jumping in based on "reduced availability" or some such, similar to what happened to Litecoin about a month before IT'S halfing this year (and the price on Litecoin has stayed up some, though not near what it peaked at), but given the much larger size of the Bitcoin market I doubt we'll see it do the near-quadruple at peak that Litecoin did. I'd guess 50-100% jump at most at the peak for Bitcoin, then a drop back down to not a lot more than it is now - other factors like Greek near-meltdown excluded.
The price of bitcoin would have to at least double to see twice the difficulty we see now.
Nope, an S5 or SP20 is still profitable - BARELY - at double the current difficulty and electric around 10c/KWH - but unlikely to RoI if you bought one now as you wouldn't have enough time to get your money back before halfing makes anything pre-S7 UNprofitable at current trends, or even if diff increases drop back under 2% per incriment - free electric and SUPER cheap electric folks excepted.
Keep in mind that most of the "big boys" ARE in the "super cheap electric" areas of the world, at least for their farming activities, and they're probably paying 60-80% of the up-front cost for their miners that most "home miners" are paying. Makes RoI a LOT easier for them.
I would be willing to bet that BITMAIN and other big players will have a new rig waiting
I would bet that they don't, but that they are working on their "NEXT gen" chips pretty hard - I also suspect that the "next gen" is going to be full-custom 14/16nm from all surviving ASIC makers, and that it'll be the LAST new generation and the LAST major jump in performance for 4-6 years.
Will that happen by July 2016 and the halfing?
My guess is "not across the board" but I won't be shocked if a couple of them are ready around that timeframe with new hardware.
If bitcoin price rises, so does the price of the rigs.
Usually, but sometimes competition drives manufacturers into fighting for market share rather than maximising profits in the short term. That's what I'm waiting for, probably in December or so.