Yes, I saw your point earlier. I would hope some how they work it out. I don't see their postal services shutting down. Otherwise, everything shipped into China from overseas is held up in big warehouses and they would have a serious back log of deliveries. I would be willing to bet their postal services will still be at work most of the holiday. As for employees within BITMAIN working during the holiday: Well, that remains to be seen. Only time will tell. I would like to think they will not be more than 10 days late with delivery. I would imagine there will be a mad rush of getting out shipments over the next couple of days [Providing they have 4.86 TH/s rigs]. If they don't have 4.86 TH/s rigs, they will be sending out many emails over the next couple of days to determine if people want a $65 refund with a 4.66 TH/s rig or wait for the 4.86 TH/s rig.
My concern is mainly on the working class of Chinese labor, mainly the assembly line. If the manufacturing component of the equation is shutdown, it doesn't matter about the rest of national services that would be affected. It also depends on whether all of the chips and ancillary equipment are onhand or trickling in from suppliers. I will be surprised if my order isn't shipped by tomorrow COB China time if it arrives during the holiday.
I doubt I would take a refund this close to the halving with difficulty going up and lots of major mines upgrading. Too many variables for a small refund, but that's my perspective at this time. I want to mine as much as I can before the halving and close to 80% ROI, then sell them. It's a gamble this close to the halving, but it's only bitcoins.
Hard to say... Just don't know what will happen. I'm waiting on rigs or to hear from BITMAIN.