Date of Release of the S9 = 23rd or 24th of May (Next Week).
No - release date is 27th of May
Topic: AntMiner S9 rampant speculation thread, have to be quick though - page 7. (Read 12816 times)
No - release date is 27th of May
I'm gona be optimistic and say
1) What does it cost?
2000$
2) What is the hash rate?
12TH
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
1000W
4) When can it be delivered?
After halving..
1) What does it cost?
2000$
2) What is the hash rate?
12TH
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
1000W
4) When can it be delivered?
After halving..
I would add in that the timing will be in conjunction of the sale of used miners. I am considering a new stance that there may be dual sales: New S9 and used S7s. Date of Release of the S9 = 23rd or 24th of May (Next Week).
I'm gona be optimistic and say
1) What does it cost?
2000$
2) What is the hash rate?
12TH
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
1000W
4) When can it be delivered?
After halving..
1) What does it cost?
2000$
2) What is the hash rate?
12TH
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
1000W
4) When can it be delivered?
After halving..
I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included. It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.
Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:
1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?
I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).
The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.
Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.
But the potential threat of a fork would matter...
S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.
I agree it is unlikely to have it. I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though. Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...
Og do you have a few links on ASICBoost
These seem relevant.
https://twitter.com/olivierjanss/status/731198742968291329
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-core-threatens-hard-fork-asicboost-mining-optimization/
This could be a real issue thanks for links.
I guess 8-9 TH/s and 1400 W. Hopefully price tag will not be much expensive.Around 1250$ will be a good deal.
i would hope for a better efficiency to be honest, 8 tera at 1400w, is not that good compared tot he currently almost 5 for 1200
I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included. It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.
Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:
1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?
I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).
The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.
Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.
But the potential threat of a fork would matter...
S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.
I agree it is unlikely to have it. I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though. Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...
Og do you have a few links on ASICBoost
These seem relevant.
https://twitter.com/olivierjanss/status/731198742968291329
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-core-threatens-hard-fork-asicboost-mining-optimization/
I guess 8-9 TH/s and 1400 W. Hopefully price tag will not be much expensive.Around 1250$ will be a good deal.
I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included. It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.
Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:
1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?
I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).
The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.
Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.
But the potential threat of a fork would matter...
S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.
I agree it is unlikely to have it. I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though. Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...
Og do you have a few links on ASICBoost
I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included. It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.
Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:
1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?
I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).
The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.
Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.
But the potential threat of a fork would matter...
S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.
I agree it is unlikely to have it. I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though. Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...
I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included. It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.
Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:
1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?
I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).
The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.
Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.
But the potential threat of a fork would matter...
S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.
I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included. It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.
Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:
1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?
I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).
The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.
Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.
I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included. It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.
Here's my guess:
How did I come up with these wacky numbers? First, I figured they'll try to double the output of the S7, shooting for 10 THs but not making it (just like the S7 didn't make it to 5 THs). This assumes they've either got a 16 - 14 nm process chip, or can pull off some last ditch trick (like ASIC-boost) to squeeze more out of their current process.
The power consumption number is because I think they want to keep the per unit consumption similar to what they have now with the S7. Their goal would be to replace the S7 units in their farm with S9s by swapping boxes, rather than adding more power supplies, using more physical space, and increasing the power to their DC.
The price is based on the trend I've noticed from Bitmain where the ROI is generally in excess of 200 days. If I remember, the S7 was around 240 days at 3% difficulty (which was much lower than reality, as we all know). Anyway, for the S9 I projected out 250 days at 3%, then cut the earnings number in half since it's unlikely that any S9 will be in customers' hands and mining before the halving.
Of course, they could just as easily price batch 1 as double that amount hoping people won't factor in the halving. There will almost certainly be a large number of idiots willing to pay that. But if the initial price really ends up being $2200, I won't be one of those idiots this time.
Regarding my guess for availability, they will want to fully deploy S9s in their DC before the halving (or their mining revenue stream is cut in half) and with enough time to work out any kinks in the manufacturing process, and to physically move the S7s out as part of a "used" sale. So let's say they're shooting to be deployed by mid June at the latest. At that point they'd probably have enough confidence to offer them for sale, with a couple of weeks for delivery, because everyone knows that you can do anything in two weeks
Also, I checked for Chinese national holidays around this time. There's a three day holiday on June 9th for the Dragon Boat Festival. I doubt that three days will make much difference either way, especially if they don't start accepting orders until after the festival.
Maybe one way we can possibly verify the above predictions early will be to see if we can spot a sustained hash rate increase of roughly double Bitmain's estimated mining operation sometime in early to mid June. That should be noticeable enough to be visible, and not just variance.
Hopefully Bitfury and BW have already bulked up for the halving. Because if they haven't, then between them and Bitmain the difficulty might very well explode in June.
- 9.4 THs
- 1300 watts
- $1100
- Accepting orders on June 15th
- Shipping by June 30th
How did I come up with these wacky numbers? First, I figured they'll try to double the output of the S7, shooting for 10 THs but not making it (just like the S7 didn't make it to 5 THs). This assumes they've either got a 16 - 14 nm process chip, or can pull off some last ditch trick (like ASIC-boost) to squeeze more out of their current process.
The power consumption number is because I think they want to keep the per unit consumption similar to what they have now with the S7. Their goal would be to replace the S7 units in their farm with S9s by swapping boxes, rather than adding more power supplies, using more physical space, and increasing the power to their DC.
The price is based on the trend I've noticed from Bitmain where the ROI is generally in excess of 200 days. If I remember, the S7 was around 240 days at 3% difficulty (which was much lower than reality, as we all know). Anyway, for the S9 I projected out 250 days at 3%, then cut the earnings number in half since it's unlikely that any S9 will be in customers' hands and mining before the halving.
Of course, they could just as easily price batch 1 as double that amount hoping people won't factor in the halving. There will almost certainly be a large number of idiots willing to pay that. But if the initial price really ends up being $2200, I won't be one of those idiots this time.
Regarding my guess for availability, they will want to fully deploy S9s in their DC before the halving (or their mining revenue stream is cut in half) and with enough time to work out any kinks in the manufacturing process, and to physically move the S7s out as part of a "used" sale. So let's say they're shooting to be deployed by mid June at the latest. At that point they'd probably have enough confidence to offer them for sale, with a couple of weeks for delivery, because everyone knows that you can do anything in two weeks
Also, I checked for Chinese national holidays around this time. There's a three day holiday on June 9th for the Dragon Boat Festival. I doubt that three days will make much difference either way, especially if they don't start accepting orders until after the festival.
Maybe one way we can possibly verify the above predictions early will be to see if we can spot a sustained hash rate increase of roughly double Bitmain's estimated mining operation sometime in early to mid June. That should be noticeable enough to be visible, and not just variance.
Hopefully Bitfury and BW have already bulked up for the halving. Because if they haven't, then between them and Bitmain the difficulty might very well explode in June.
It will be a preorder Late may. With it arriving in late in june or july:) with compensation after 10 days late from expected ship 
did some edits that make it sound more like bitmain.
LOL! You forgot that the compensation will be crappy, and also very late
I was bit by that stupid holiday week shipping delay of 2/3rds of my B1 S7 order. The question is whether I'll be stupid enough to order batch one again. Hopefully this time logic will win over irrationality.
They haven't even started to sell "used S7" units ouf of their own farm.
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
It will be a preorder Late may. With it arriving
did some edits that make it sound more like bitmain.
Best Regards
d57heinz
Most likely that is true.
But I have the agenda with the solar array. So I need to get some of the newer gear as fast as I can.
They haven't even started to sell "used S7" units ouf of their own farm.
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
It will be a preorder Late may. With it arriving
did some edits that make it sound more like bitmain.
Best Regards
d57heinz
It will be a preorder Late may. With it arriving in late june
Halving is currently predicted around July 10. Even if something catastrophic happens (three +20% diff jumps, or -20% decreases) the date won't change by more than ~10-12 days either way. If your prediction is true we would get between 0-20 days of mining under the current block reward. Basically the only way I see someone buying the S9 is if (a) the person is very bad at math or (b) the price/efficiency ratio is very good, e.g. within 150% of S7 price per TH/s at half the power draw or smth like that.
And yes, I am a Batch 1 S7 buyer so I know what it means to be (a)
They haven't even started to sell "used S7" units ouf of their own farm.
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
It will be a preorder Late may. With it arriving in late june
They haven't even started to sell "used S7" units ouf of their own farm.
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.
The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).
Jump to: