AntMiner S9 rampant speculation thread, have to be quick though - page 9.

laowzE

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Quote from: scyth3 on May 12, 2016, 04:35:10 PM

Quote from: AriesIV10 on May 12, 2016, 09:03:26 AM

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

I wouldn't trust some random guy that is probably a scammer.

Sharif is a sales guy for Bitmain, he speaks english, chinese, russian. He was helpful when I purchased my lot of S7-F1!

scyth3

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Quote from: AriesIV10 on May 12, 2016, 09:03:26 AM

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

I wouldn't trust some random guy that is probably a scammer.

fanatic26

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Activity: 756

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S7 Power Consumption: 1293W + 10% (at the wall, with APW3, 93% efficiency, 25C ambient temp)

aka 1422w at the wall at a low ambient temperature

If they plan on selling the same PSUs for the new generation I cant honestly see them going past this number as 1430w is already close to 90% load on the PSU and you certainly dont want to run a PSU at its max rating full time.

suchmoon

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Quote from: AriesIV10 on May 12, 2016, 09:03:26 AM

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

S7 was "launched" in August and I got my Batch 1 in October (some lucky buyers got theirs in September).

I doubt the S9 will be available for immediate delivery.

fr4nkthetank

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Now the money is free, and so the people will be

i'm going to guess not much of a hash rate increase. So 6-7th, but for 1000w. I'm just taking my speculation from the new graphic cards which are coming out, which a little faster, but mostly more power efficient. i'm guessing its the same, so a little faster, and less power. Makes sense with the halving too - s7 will be unprofitable soon after the halving if the market is flooded with new 14/16nm tech.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

If I can order one on the 21st of may I will.

AriesIV10

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Mine for a Bit

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: DOGE12321 on May 11, 2016, 08:29:21 PM

It will most probably have to still be profitable despite the coming halving, so I'd say 8-9 TH/s with a $1.3k price tag. Maybe super efficient, 0.075w a gh? (Hopefullness)

well they do not want to toss all their psu's away.

So under 1400 watts use the 10 pcie cables

the newest s-7 does 4.7th so 2x that is 9.4

the newest s-7 does 1350 watts at the wall

so 9.4 at 1350 watts is a decent guess that would be 0.143 watts a gh

They have a bit incentive to keep watts over 1350 at the wall as that kind of knocks out the evga 1300g2 as a psu which means they sell more of their psus.

I suspect that if they could make a .075 watt machine they would use it in house and sell us a .14 watt machine.

I for one would buy a 9.4th machine using 1350 watts and put it in the solar array If it was 1000 it would be too cheap if it comes out soon enough.

So I guess 10th 1350 watts for 1500 which is the typical over price point. But I would need the machine fast to buy it. Since the 1/2ing is on the way.

5h4do3

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S9... Well here's the conundrum

1. bitmain will have to recoup their development costs and if developing tech is like cars its gets exponentially more expensive the more you ahem go faster i.e efficient.
2. the halving... if we assume the jump from 400ph to 1500ph is due to 80% S7's then we can only really expect a 400ph drop
if that on the network hash rate...
3. their efficiency will have to be amazing for them to feasibly sell S9 at current BTC price...

now their underlying reasons are based on current BTC price not changing... if the BTC price changes up enough well then what ive said is a bunch of poo.

Truly I dont think bitmain knows what to price the S7 at it really all depends on BTC price

the gems might be in the second hand market of S7's IMO or even new S7's... we might even get to see $150 S7 price or lower lol which i doubt

DOGE12321

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It will most probably have to still be profitable despite the coming halving, so I'd say 8-9 TH/s with a $1.3k price tag. Maybe super efficient, 0.075w a gh? (Hopefullness)

Finksy

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Quote from: suchmoon on May 11, 2016, 08:17:35 PM

Quote from: Finksy on May 11, 2016, 08:12:36 PM

I would be willing to guess we are looking at 0.09W/GHs ATW efficiency, 14TH/s and around $1900.

I would love that, perhaps would even buy batch 3 or 4. Bitmain tends to improve power consumption by 30-40% with each generation. Going down by 70% (0.30W -> 0.09W) would surprise me.

Efficiency figure is pure speculation based on an exponential formula I worked up in Sept '14, but so far one of them has been relatively close to predict S5 and S7 efficiency. As for pricing, it's a complete shot in the dark. You never know with BMT...

I can't imagine they would change their form factor for this generation, after the success of the S5+ and S7.

Quote from: Finksy on February 02, 2016, 03:28:10 PM

Quote from: Finksy on September 23, 2014, 03:49:13 PM

Just thought I'd try to contribute something. Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while. Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic:

Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes. We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns.

Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency.

When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15,

11.2e^(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs

When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15:

11.2e^(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs

Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40

11.2e^(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs

Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time.

64dimensions

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BM is constrained.

Back of the envelope:

9 TH/s

1300W

2.6 BTC

1) 1300W with a useful tolerance means a 125V 15A receptacle can be used.

2) 9 TH/s is a minimum.

3) 2.6 BTC is a maximum

Depending on your opinion of ETH, 2) and 3) can be influenced by ETH mining.

suchmoon

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Quote from: Finksy on May 11, 2016, 08:12:36 PM

I would be willing to guess we are looking at 0.09W/GHs ATW efficiency, 14TH/s and around $1900.

I would love that, perhaps would even buy batch 3 or 4. Bitmain tends to improve power consumption by 30-40% with each generation. Going down by 70% (0.30W -> 0.09W) would surprise me.

Finksy

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I would be willing to guess we are looking at 0.09W/GHs ATW efficiency, 14TH/s and around $1900.

notlist3d

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I thought it was going to turn out to be trolls on this. But if they are getting official accounts... that changes my mind. I have no idea what to expect though. I think design wise will be like S7 with 3 hashing boards. But specs.. who knows.

suchmoon

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Quote from: Erumara on May 11, 2016, 05:01:23 PM

Gonna guess 6.31TH @ 1380W, hopefully in the 5BTC price range!

I hope not these specs - not much better than S7 and 5 times more expensive. Although batch 1 might be horrible as usual.

Prelude

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My guess:

8TH/s, 1200w. Release ~2 weeks before halving to take advantage of suckers. $1200

Quote from: adaseb on May 11, 2016, 05:41:44 PM

My guess is that it also won't be more efficient then ETH mining currently, unless Bitmain can make it 8TH/s and use less than 1000Watts. But that is almost 0.10W/GHS territory.

What's your point? We're talking bitcoin mining here, not an altcoin. There's a separate forum for that.

adaseb

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My guess is that it also won't be more efficient then ETH mining currently, unless Bitmain can make it 8TH/s and use less than 1000Watts. But that is almost 0.10W/GHS territory.

tntdgcr

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Quote from: adaseb on May 11, 2016, 05:11:43 PM

I think it will use the same amount of power as before around 1200-1300Watts but be more efficient so 7TH/s.

Release within 2-4 weeks.

Ognasty was right, try to get as much BTC as possible now before the halving.

I like this mindset!

Biodom

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Quote from: adaseb on May 11, 2016, 05:11:43 PM

I think it will use the same amount of power as before around 1200-1300Watts but be more efficient so 7TH/s.

Release within 2-4 weeks.

Ognasty was right, try to get as much BTC as possible now before the halving.

perhaps, but only batches 1-7 were in that range (1100-1300); later they crept up the power usage.

Topic: AntMiner S9 rampant speculation thread, have to be quick though - page 9. (Read 12816 times)