Topic: [Archive] BFL trolling museum - page 61. (Read 69394 times)

I hope for some good news next week ..

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/519-10-dec-2012-bfl-asic-update-22.html#post9154

I was considering how long it would take for the majority of the orders to be shipped once shipping begins. I should have made that more clear.

In the past roll outs it was at least several months before even half of the preorders had been filled. Difficulty was ramping up the whole time of course but those initial orders/shipments had a nice bonus of mining with lower difficulties for a few months.

You means weeks? days? Difficulty doesn't recalculate every 2 weeks, but rather every 2016 blocks. If there's a surge in mining power, the faster blocks will come in and the sooner the difficulty adjustment(s) will take place.

I may be wrong but I took it as meaning that over time the ROI on your purchase will be similar.

Its not taking into account that if you can get a hold of the first batch you would have a major boost in income over the first few months before Diifficulty levels out.

I struggled making sense of that comment as well...

That is almost certainly not true.

Unless you expect no ASIC miners to ship ever.  Then it would be true.

Lol

I didn't specify who the trolls were.

There is the lead BFL representative currently trolling these threads. Did you actually miss seeing him?

(Good Job?)

To be fair, this thread isn't the best source for current information. For that, check out the official Butterfly Labs forum blog.

So... rather than actually ask BFL... you post a question publicly on a thread board full of trolls. Good job.

They haven't been produced yet.  Feel free to cancel and get a refund.

I haven't followed this thread from start to finish - frankly I don't have the time to. What I do know is this - I ordered (4) SC Singles on 7/26/2012. It's been over 5 months now. Where are my products?

Well next time I run into a time machine, I'll be sure to go back to July and warn you. Sounds good?

Because not everyone views it as an investment. Lets say I put in my money instead of buying a BFL single into BTC directly. Price was $3 per BTC. Over almost a year I would have made $10 per BTC. On $600 that is 200 BTC for wow $2000. Instead I waited and paid for a BFL single later (avoided some risk but not all) I have made about 900$ this way.

I didn't say I invested in a BFL single because to me I wasn't investing. I was buying an income stream. That isn't to say money wasn't invested in this project. I only intend to convey this isn't a direct risk for profit play. I paid for a device that will produce something. In a way I invested in a business well a side business. Now depending on the jargon you could phrase what I did next two wildly different ways.

1. I spent my income to upgrade and expand my income stream.
2. I re-invested my profits (they aren't) into my operation.

As an aside at this point my upgrade was returned capitol not profit anything above the initial amount is profit though.

To me I with perfect future knowledge could have made more then 1000% profit. Knowing that there are dips etc and pulling capitol out when exchange tops and reinvesting it into BTC when the exchange rate drops. Reality is that I wouldn't have likely made that much. I didn't intend so much to try getting my initial investment back as $'s but to increase my $'s per month income.

When I paid for a unit I wrote that money off as lost. That's right I expected to get income not have my hardware appreciate or my BTC actually go up in value. I expected at lease a 10 month window where my income stream would make me about even. After that everything would be gravy. Luck was with me and I could upgrade far faster. In less then 10 months I have paid out more then my initial expense.

I don't worry as much as some because this is the cost of doing business. I paid for hardware to perform a task. On expectation that better and more efficient hardware would be available I paid to upgrade to newer hardware. Did delays potentially cost money? Yes. Could I depending on when they ship be better off having done things differently sure. Am I out money? Not really. I have an order that will get filled. My point is that although I could have paid for additional income prior to ordering an upgrade. I didn't knowing that I likely woulnd't have enough to pay for both upgrades with my income stream. I can't gurantee the future price of BTC. I can guess it won't go back to 3$ per BTC any time soon. I am not making less money on my unit then I had been before the annoucement. Or at least not a lot less.

Interesting angle to explore, but I do not thing there is much merit in it.

No one, rich or poor, plans to loose when investing into something.

But, different people risk their moneys differently, with very opposite motives, and very opposite strategies.

The people who earned their riches themselves, take risk willingly, knowing that the higher the risk, higher the potential return, if it happens. If it does not, they do not get surprised, some get very emotional though (as I said, no one plans to loose, and loosing hurts!)

Poor people are naturally risk averse, and by definition risk-less venture do not pay back a lot, if any.

Since the first exchange opened, BTC=cash, at least I do not value the cash in my bank account and the BTCs in my wallet any differently - value is value irrespective of the currency.

What I do not understand is, if someone is not prepared to take the risk of loosing his/hers moneys, why do they pre-order something from vendors who either don't have the proven record of delivering on time and on specification, or have proven record of not delivering on time; and second, why would they go and cancel a pre-order - did someone forced them to pre-order?

One thing that makes Bitcoin very different from any other ventures is that one cannot miss this train if he just waits few months or years. That's what I advise all my friends, if you want to get involved, want to invest in Bitcoin one way or another, don't rush, look around for as long as you are comfortable to form informed opinion of your own, but one thing is for sure - the nature of Bitcoin will not let you miss this train - at any ingress point, the profitability curve remains the same.

What varies is the risk - one can pre-order ASIC based mining equipment today, or wait for 6 months and order it then - in both cases, the ROI will be in the similar range, but the risk in the first case will be huge, and in the second case almost none.

So why rush if you cannot palate the risk?

@ Gopher

The reason I ask is because I am currently of the thought that large orders are coming from the wealthy who can afford to lose vs those who make smaller orders and can't afford to lose.

On top of that I have always assumed that larger customers (having more money) can afford to wait longer because their investment pays off greatly compared to the smaller customer with a small purchase.

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You've brought to light an interesting angle though. If you pay for an order with BTC (which you normally didn't do anything to earn it besides construct a rig and power it on) does that mean less if you lose it than someone whom paid with fiat cash?

The question arises is BTC less valuable if you lose it vs actual cash that you physically work for to earn it?

It has got me thinking. I'd love to poll the people who complain the most and figure out what their payment method was like vs those who didn't complain very much.

I'd love your input on this from an actual customer of a larger order.

While it's highly probable that BFL gave an overly optimistic timeline in order to dominate the initial ASIC market, there's no evidence at all that they've used pre-order money to fund development.

It's not at all uncommon to need external funds to take a project to working prototype stage - that's a step which can be massively expensive - and there are plenty of different ways to acquire development funding.  In and of itself, needing external funding says nothing about the viability of a project or the competence of those over-seeing it.  Those who invest in such ventures are acutely aware that they may see zero return on their investment.

Ok, I hear you on this.

Just for large customer reference point...As a Mini-Rig customer at what point does it become too much?

What is the psychology behind large orders? As in, what _would_ make you consider pulling out if the current trend continues? What is the main factor that you would consider the breaking point where you would personally pull your pre-order?

Is it the time or confidence that worries you the most?

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I noticed below that you mentioned you paid with BTC rather than cash. Do you feel that is a major factor in how someone feels about their pre-order? (I paid with cash, not BTC at my own Vendor)

Does spending virtual currency (rather than fiat currency) make the wait easier? Do you believe it would make a difference if you had paid with actual cash than BTC?

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The reason I ask is because I want to understand what goes on behind "the confidence" of one customer vs "the lack of confidence" in another. I assume there has to be some kind of difference between those who hang on and stay cool vs those who complain.