Topic: ASICMINER Auction: 10 Block Erupter Blades -ended- - page 19. (Read 102526 times)
2@51
Arrrgggghhhhh made a mistake 
10 is only 4 months
(10 x 12 days)
Hmm - well yeah that is certainly pushing the limits of what it could be in 4 months - but still not ridiculous.
10 is only 4 months
(10 x 12 days)
Hmm - well yeah that is certainly pushing the limits of what it could be in 4 months - but still not ridiculous.
It's possible, probable even. But not certain. I'm just saying that the last rise of 16% means deploying 40TH/s in 12 days (faster actually, 'cos new difficulty is calculated from mean value of those 12 days). That seems ridiculous.
Arrrgggghhhhh made a mistake
10 is only 4 months
(10 x 12 days)
Hmm - well yeah that is certainly pushing the limits of what it could be in 4 months - but still not ridiculous.
10 is only 4 months
(10 x 12 days)
Hmm - well yeah that is certainly pushing the limits of what it could be in 4 months - but still not ridiculous.
...
It's easier to rise difficulty 16% when the value is 4M than when the value is 8M. And you are claiming difficulty will rise 16% when it's sitting at 34M.
1.16 ^ 10 = 4.4It's easier to rise difficulty 16% when the value is 4M than when the value is 8M. And you are claiming difficulty will rise 16% when it's sitting at 34M.
9,000,000 diff = 64TH/s
So you seem to think that the network being 280TH/s in 10 months is far from likely?
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You really think both Avalon and ASICMINER are going to STOP making ASICs?
No, i dont think that. But judging from the past i think the plans for new hashingpower arent what happens at the end. I mean you know what the plans were for Asicminers Hashingpower, for BFLs Delivery and so on.
I really think that the winners will make a good trade.
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.
16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
Block 217728 -9% 18:41:27 23-Jan-2013 UTC 2968775.3320751
Block 219744 +10% 11:19:06 05-Feb-2013 UTC 3275464.5865656
Block 221760 +11% 00:47:50 18-Feb-2013 UTC 3651011.6306932
Block 223776 +20% 17:42:44 01-Mar-2013 UTC 4367876.0008422
Block 225792 +11% 08:32:26 14-Mar-2013 UTC 4847647.1520656
Block 227808 +38% 12:00:25 24-Mar-2013 UTC 6695826.2825963
Block 229824 +15% 17:40:43 05-Apr-2013 UTC 7672999.92016
Block 231840 +17% = 9000000 (near future)
N.B. the dates are block header times, which can be at most 7200 seconds different to the real time they were found
The current estimate is 16.9565% with 38 blocks to go
Anyway, my point being that a 16% estimate seems far from unlikely considering the first Avalon was 20-Jan and ASICMINER started ~14-Feb?
You really think both Avalon and ASICMINER are going to STOP making ASICs?
It's easier to rise difficulty 16% when the value is 4M than when the value is 8M. And you are claiming difficulty will rise 16% when it's sitting at 34M.
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.
16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
Block 217728 -9% 18:41:27 23-Jan-2013 UTC 2968775.3320751
Block 219744 +10% 11:19:06 05-Feb-2013 UTC 3275464.5865656
Block 221760 +11% 00:47:50 18-Feb-2013 UTC 3651011.6306932
Block 223776 +20% 17:42:44 01-Mar-2013 UTC 4367876.0008422
Block 225792 +11% 08:32:26 14-Mar-2013 UTC 4847647.1520656
Block 227808 +38% 12:00:25 24-Mar-2013 UTC 6695826.2825963
Block 229824 +15% 17:40:43 05-Apr-2013 UTC 7672999.92016
Block 231840 +17% = 9000000 (near future)
N.B. the dates are block header times, which can be at most 7200 seconds different to the real time they were found
The current estimate is 16.9565% with 38 blocks to go
Anyway, my point being that a 16% estimate seems far from unlikely considering the first Avalon was 20-Jan and ASICMINER started ~14-Feb?
You really think both Avalon and ASICMINER are going to STOP making ASICs?
stop gumming up the auction thread with your jibber-jabber!
Thank you & good luck - we really need lots & lots of people like you - rich and fat head.
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...
... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)
Avalon batch 4... dont forget BFL will ship tomorrow... come on... you want to press down the price, but please not with such an amount of assumptions...
I hope you have noticed the words "possible" and (?) ? You can safely exclude batch 4 (which is now in polling state), and still have batch 2 and 3.
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
For those curious:
Update
...If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December...Some may say that 1,000TH/s in the end of this year is too conservative...
...If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December...Some may say that 1,000TH/s in the end of this year is too conservative...
Source: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1604192
Yes, that was in plan on 9th of march. Now is 17th of april, so 6 weeks later. Plans change :-)
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...
... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)
stop gumming up the auction thread with your jibber-jabber!
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
For those curious:
Update
...If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December...Some may say that 1,000TH/s in the end of this year is too conservative...
...If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December...Some may say that 1,000TH/s in the end of this year is too conservative...
Source: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1604192
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...
... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)
Avalon batch 4... dont forget BFL will ship tomorrow... come on... you want to press down the price, but please not with such an amount of assumptions...
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...
... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
Actually current plan is to deploy 55 TH/s until end of may (which was planned until end of april at first, so it could be delayed further). When will the rest (~200TH/s) deployed is currently unknown.
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.
16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....
those auctioned units are part of that 200TH/s
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2
So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.
Good luck.
Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.
16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....
those auctioned units are part of that 200TH/s
It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....
So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
I would bid in the groupbuy if the auction wouldnt be that shortimed and i only get asicminer dividends in some more hours than the auction ends. But i made a calculation... Asicminer Shares are traded at least for 0.78BTC at the moment. The last dividend was 0.00695566. Using that dividend it would take 785 days to get the shareprice back with dividends. Of course there is the hope that Asicminer starts deploying more hashpower.
When buying one of these asics and using a difficulty of 9,672,999.92 then one would get 0.5599BTC per day. If buying such miner for 100BTC it would only take 178,6 days to get the buying price back in. Of course there is a risk that the difficulty goes higher... but the last months showed that this risk isnt high because nearly all Asicminer-Companies have problems of some kind.
So, i would bid if i would get my dividend earlier.
The lowest price is 46BTC now... its only 82,157 days to get the investment back. With higher difficulty than now. 9,000,000 instead 7,000,000. So i dont see the claims that the miners are too high valued.
Calculated at: http://dev.bitcoinx.com/profit/
When buying one of these asics and using a difficulty of 9,672,999.92 then one would get 0.5599BTC per day. If buying such miner for 100BTC it would only take 178,6 days to get the buying price back in. Of course there is a risk that the difficulty goes higher... but the last months showed that this risk isnt high because nearly all Asicminer-Companies have problems of some kind.
So, i would bid if i would get my dividend earlier.
The lowest price is 46BTC now... its only 82,157 days to get the investment back. With higher difficulty than now. 9,000,000 instead 7,000,000. So i dont see the claims that the miners are too high valued.
Calculated at: http://dev.bitcoinx.com/profit/
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