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Topic: ASICMINER Auction: 10 Block Erupter Blades -ended- - page 20. (Read 102572 times)

sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....

those auctioned units are part of that 200TH/s
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
Why? ASCISMINER alone wants to put online 1TH by the year end. I would love you to be right, but i can't find any support to your thesis.
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 102
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.
full member
Activity: 123
Merit: 100
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 102
(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.
legendary
Activity: 4592
Merit: 1851
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
In about 6 hours the difficulty will be about 9,000,000
At that difficulty, 10GH/s will make about 0.55 BTC a day.
Use that in your calculations for the next 12 days
... then of course multiply 0.55 by approx 0.84 for the 12 days after that ... and continue doing that until BFL release their hardware
That's a reasonably good estimate ... with the totally unknown number in there "until BFL release"
(coz when that happens the difficulty will sky rocket)
vip
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻
Group buy (if there is enough interest), get a share of the blade for less than 1 BTC: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1862693
vip
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻


Well, an on-hand Avalon batch 1 goes for around 3-40k, which is around 470~BTC for 63 Gh/s. By this logic, the fair price for a 10GH/s device like this would be around 80~BTC.


shhhhhhhhh     Wink

They only went for 30K - 40K because BTC was trading @$200+

You mine BTC with them, not $, so my guess is with BTC being down over 60%, the prices of those Avalons will also be down 60%


I guess then the big question is what you think BTC will be worth in month or two.    ;-)
That doesn't really matter beyond the electricity cost. You pay BTC, this device mines BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1003
i'm out, this is way too much
newbie
Activity: 49
Merit: 0


Well, an on-hand Avalon batch 1 goes for around 3-40k, which is around 470~BTC for 63 Gh/s. By this logic, the fair price for a 10GH/s device like this would be around 80~BTC.


shhhhhhhhh     Wink

They only went for 30K - 40K because BTC was trading @$200+

You mine BTC with them, not $, so my guess is with BTC being down over 60%, the prices of those Avalons will also be down 60%


I guess then the big question is what you think BTC will be worth in month or two.    ;-)
A month is too short term. Make it a year Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1227
Away on an extended break


Well, an on-hand Avalon batch 1 goes for around 3-40k, which is around 470~BTC for 63 Gh/s. By this logic, the fair price for a 10GH/s device like this would be around 80~BTC.


shhhhhhhhh     Wink

They only went for 30K - 40K because BTC was trading @$200+

You mine BTC with them, not $, so my guess is with BTC being down over 60%, the prices of those Avalons will also be down 60%
Meh, take a look at recent auctions for batch #1 - you'll see that they still go for the same price.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178635.new#new

Bid guys, BID!  Tongue
donator
Activity: 294
Merit: 250


Well, an on-hand Avalon batch 1 goes for around 3-40k, which is around 470~BTC for 63 Gh/s. By this logic, the fair price for a 10GH/s device like this would be around 80~BTC.


shhhhhhhhh     Wink

They only went for 30K - 40K because BTC was trading @$200+

You mine BTC with them, not $, so my guess is with BTC being down over 60%, the prices of those Avalons will also be down 60%


I guess then the big question is what you think BTC will be worth in month or two.    ;-)
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000


Well, an on-hand Avalon batch 1 goes for around 3-40k, which is around 470~BTC for 63 Gh/s. By this logic, the fair price for a 10GH/s device like this would be around 80~BTC.


shhhhhhhhh     Wink

They only went for 30K - 40K because BTC was trading @$200+

You mine BTC with them, not $, so my guess is with BTC being down over 60%, the prices of those Avalons will also be down 60%
donator
Activity: 294
Merit: 250


Well, an on-hand Avalon batch 1 goes for around 3-40k, which is around 470~BTC for 63 Gh/s. By this logic, the fair price for a 10GH/s device like this would be around 80~BTC.


shhhhhhhhh     Wink
mrb
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1028
Hm, can someone explain to me why these look just like Avalon blades?

The do not look "just like" Avalon blades. Or maybe to a non-electrical engineer they look "just like" each other Smiley For one, Avalon has a lot more power circuitry on the board itself.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1227
Away on an extended break
Hm, can someone explain to me why these look just like Avalon blades?

http://img5.douban.com/view/photo/photo/public/p1859117009.jpg

And why are you paying 50+ BTC for 10GH at 80W?
No idea for the pic - the official photos are yet to come for AM's blades in this thread.

Well, an on-hand Avalon batch 1 goes for around 3-40k, which is around 470~BTC for 63 Gh/s. By this logic, the fair price for a 10GH/s device like this would be around 80~BTC.

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donator
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
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