Did you really just use a 62 billion difficulty prediction within 12 months....
http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
If you want to make the curves on your own you can change the table at the right. The next difficulty is 24%. Far higher than what my chart shows.
That means you are about to lose 24% of everything you would have made in the next year if difficulty remained absolutely flat. What do you think it will be next week? 2%?
Each successive 15% is a smaller proportion of the pie than the last. So it should be a good median start.
I chose 15% because it is neither too high nor too low. I back tested 15% (@ a frequency of 14 day corrections) to when I got my Avalon and it turned out very close to what I actually made. (it was actually a little bit higher than actual)
While I am aware that the first 15% is inaccurate and too low @ a frequency of 7 days per correction, (as we know 24% is the next figure) I figured the median of 15% should compensate for peaks and troughs over time.
As more ASIC come online the frequency towards the end should be even shorter than 7 days. Which will make corrections in difficulty all that more severe than what is depicted.