Lets look at another angle of this, What about the next reward halving? It is supposed to cut the fair value by half for ASICMINER and half its dividends.
You could argue that BTC price would double so it is the same but that also means that if you sold your shares just before the halving and its effect. You sacrifice the future divalents to DOUBLE the worth of your shares!
What do you think guys?
Err, that isn't scheduled to happen until 2017, so not worth considering.
Not worth considering? It absolutely is.
2016
OK Nov 25th, 2016 as per
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MiningBetween now and then we have:
1) the upcoming transition of almost the entire network from GPU mining to 1st gen ASIC mining.
2) At least one perhaps more transitions to newer generation fo ASIC mining hardware.
How Friedcat handles these transitions, (especially the first one) as opposed to the competition, is going to have a much bigger impact on the daily price of ASICMINER shares than an event that is approximately 1330 days in the future. We have no way of knowing if ASICMINER will still exist, or be the biggest fish in the mining sea.
-helixone
The block reward isn't something that is going to happen or not happen - mining rewards will be cut in half. It's something you look at when considering the future revenues, and just because it's in 2016 doesn't mean it's not going to happen.
It's very hard to say what the mining sector will look like in a few years, but block reward halving matter and shouldn't be ignored.
So should we be considering that all bitcoins will have been mined by 2033 and will have to transition to a transaction based incentive model?
I say no, because the profitability of an investment in ASICMINER today will largely be impacted by how quickly Friedcat brings the next 50+ TH online, as opposed to if and when BFL can ship their upcoming production run of ASIC mining gear.
It's this simple: if you feel that Friedcat is gonna have his gear up for a solid period of time before BFL has shipped a significant portion of their backordered gear, then price will go up to reflect the dividends being paid, and he'll will have the monetary reserves to invest heavily and early into the next generation of HW. If not, well... let's not talk about that.
So far it looks like he is doing well, and he has a good chance to beat BFL to market with his second production run. The bigger question is how many weeks/months will he be ahead? (Oh course the more the better for current investors).