ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1230.

peterepeat

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Quote from: friedcat on March 09, 2013, 12:09:36 PM

By early April the next batch of finished devices will be available for deploying. At that time we will have a full team for installing and maintainance. If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December. (200+1000)/2 = 600. So we will have 10% in average of the full network from late April to late December. That translates to about 88,000 Bitcoins total mined. That is 0.22BTC/share of gross income in eight months.

So if they have 10% of the network, my understanding is that in the near term (12 months) does this mean that we can expect a regular dividend of ~0.0063 (0.22 BTC / 8 months * 12months / 52 weeks) BTC per week?

Edit: I realise now that 0.33 BTC/share per year is gross, so expenses need to come out. Even so, the Price/Earnings ratio still seems good if asicminer can maintain that share for a many years to come.

Jutarul

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Quote from: HorseRider on March 14, 2013, 10:22:43 PM

If you're a shareholder of ASICMINER, just use the dividend from the shares to donate anything you want. Please do not force a company into donation. This is not the best practice in corporate governance.

this.

It's unfortunate that this happened. But it's part of the operational risk which relies with running a pool. The only reason for bitfountain to return anything is if they were pulling money from the hotwallet during the time of the incident. The pool operator may decide to increase fees to compensate for the increased risk, but then bitfountain has to reevaluate the cost/benefit of putting the hashing power onto btcguild.

HorseRider

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Quote from: beekeeper on March 14, 2013, 08:47:28 PM

I will rephrase this..
I believe in Darwin..
Either make yourself useful or die.
Basically asicminer is not very different from a fpga farm, they wont be here long unless they will prove themselves useful.
They were the first, congrats (it is second time i do congrats them, check my posts), but in the long run if you do not integrate, you wont survive.
Except than increasing difficulty, what else did you do for btc ecosystem?
BTCguild is missing 1250 BTC, did you donated 1 btc for it?
You can keep your distance, you may consider you did your job since you donate 5%, but in one month bfl will be here, and I don't like them (actaully fu them too), you think you will still be here kicking?
Either bind with ecosystem or be gone, and this is scientific (if you want to go in details, give me few days and i'll provide papers..

)

If you're a shareholder of ASICMINER, just use the dividend from the shares to donate anything you want. Please do not force a company into donation. This is not the best practice in corporate governance.

keystroke

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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

As a shareholder I wouldn't mind voting my shares to put ASICMINER on the BTC Guild donation queue for some period of time. I think this would be a decent thing for us to do to help the pool owner. It would be good will for ASICMINER and show the world how the Bitcoin community sticks together. Is anyone else interested? Shareholder replies only please.

kano

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Linux since 1997 RedHat 4

Quote from: beekeeper on March 14, 2013, 08:47:28 PM

...
BTCguild is missing 1250 BTC, did you donated 1 btc for it?
...

BTCGuild has had a higher income due to ASICMINER mining there.

BTCGuild is missing BTC coz he made a mistake.

Blaming that on someone else is clearly delusional.

Visit a doctor please.

Jutarul

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Quote from: beekeeper on March 14, 2013, 08:47:28 PM

I believe in Darwin..

..but obviously don't understand it. It has nothing to do with usefulness. It's about survivalism and procreation.
The mining landscape is destined to change dramatically throughout the next 2 years. That means bitfountain will have to adapt their business model as well, as the focus moves from technological edge towards competence edge.

beekeeper

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LTC

Quote

..
I believe in Darwin..
..

I'll try again to simplify again what I am trying to say.
Asicminer isn't more faulty than me, or anyone else mining at btcguild. Or he isn't more faulty than a meateater that chickens are killed to get their meat.
I was just trying to ask them for a donation for btcguild, and I will ask everyone in top 50 on btcguild to make a small one, if possible, ofc...

eleuthria

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beekeeper, please do not bring unwarranted attacks into the ASICMINER thread. While you have one point (the hot wallet was larger due to ASICMINER's presence), they have helped BTC Guild significantly with their presence. Since ASICMINER has joined, we've received many new signups, putting the pool's % of network hash rate back to its highest level since July 2011. Even if ASICMINER left, the pool has received secondary benefits just due to the publicity of the first large scale ASIC operation starting on BTC Guild. The pool will earn back its losses faster thanks to these facts.

beekeeper

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removed, got misunderstood..

SebastianJu

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Quote deleted on request.

It was around an incident at btcguild that led to a high loss: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1610708

Asicminer didnt get an overpayment:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1612647

If someone wants to help maybe donate some dividend...

beekeeper

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LTC

removed, got misunderstood..

ghostshirt

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Another dividend already?
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/60288731/77fc221d2a9bca039720a23e67104fe38e3dae1410bd85abbb6b2045012fc8f1

SebastianJu

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Quote from: VJain on March 14, 2013, 05:49:41 PM

Quote from: beekeeper on March 14, 2013, 05:14:51 PM

So guys, is Asicminer a good business after all or not?

Here's my story, you be the judge.

I invested about $50 (was new to BTC at the time) into coins in early Fall ( around $6/each IIRC ). Bought 80 shares of ASICMINER at 0.1BTC.

Now:
80 Shares are valued at 60BTC (say 0.75BTC Each).
I have earned about 5BTC in Dividends - about 1.7BTC a week

Total: 65 BTC from a 8 BTC Investment

1 BTC = $47USD
65 BTC = $3055USD

And $80/week dividends ($240/month). Not huge. But it pays my alcoholism (I'm joking).

These numbers/dates aren't accurate. I should have kept a log... but I didn't.

Now lets hope that bitcoin exchange course and asicminer share price remains stable or is going up only. With Bitcoin there isnt much risk. Even the last fork didnt lead to a real drop in exchange course. I only can imagine a crash if governments ban bitcoin.
And a crash in Asicminer share price can only happen if friedcat turns out to be a scam which is highly unlikely now, after he proved his trustworthiness.

So the future looks good in my opinion...

VJain

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Quote from: beekeeper on March 14, 2013, 05:14:51 PM

So guys, is Asicminer a good business after all or not?

Here's my story, you be the judge.

I invested about $50 (was new to BTC at the time) into coins in early Fall ( around $6/each IIRC ). Bought 80 shares of ASICMINER at 0.1BTC.

Now:
80 Shares are valued at 60BTC (say 0.75BTC Each).
I have earned about 5BTC in Dividends - about 1.7BTC a week

Total: 65 BTC from a 8 BTC Investment

1 BTC = $47USD
65 BTC = $3055USD

And $80/week dividends ($240/month). Not huge. But it pays my alcoholism (I'm joking).

These numbers/dates aren't accurate. I should have kept a log... but I didn't.

beekeeper

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LTC

So guys, is Asicminer a good business after all or not?

SebastianJu

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No update from friedcat today it seems... i would like to know why deployment nearly stopped the second week now. Hope the problem isnt a serious one...

Mausini

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Quote from: mrb on March 14, 2013, 04:06:45 PM

Quote from: Mausini on March 14, 2013, 03:12:57 PM

we were discussing the effect of usd/btc increase on share value isolated from difficulty increase due to competition.

And I explained to you why it won't affect them: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1624754 But you ignored this post (because your reasoning breaks down?).

I have been mining and investing in the Bitcoin market since Dec 2010. I know very well how this market responds to all the economic factors we have discussed. I have written numerous tools to model and predict various investment strategies. Believe me, they have been successful and accurate.

I sure hope your mining and investing operations went well during all that time Grin

Current AM share price is based on investors' expected future (!) profit. As you know, however, difficulty will increase in the future and converges to an equilibrium of operational costs and profits. This implies that it's completely wrong to say operational costs are insignificant. They will be very significant in the future and of course have an effect on today's share valuation. If usd/btc goes up, operational costs go down (in btc). That leads to higher profits (until again an equilibrium is reached), higher dividends and hence higher share valuation.

Can we agree on that? Peace?

Edit: Editing posts doesn't count Wink

mrb

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Quote from: Mausini on March 14, 2013, 03:12:57 PM

we were discussing the effect of usd/btc increase on share value isolated from difficulty increase due to competition.

And I explained to you why it will not affect them: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1624754 But you ignored this post (because your reasoning breaks down?).

(I have been mining and investing in the Bitcoin market since Dec 2010. I have written tools to archive historical Bitcoin economic data and model various investment strategies. I know very well how this market responds to the economic factors we have discussed.)

Mausini

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Quote from: mrb on March 14, 2013, 01:04:25 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

This would only remain true if the overall hashrate of the network isnt rising much. I mean when its way more competition then the mined coins will be less and the powercosts will rise because more asics are needed for the same bitcoins mined. And if the bitcoin price is rising then its something that works against the powercost. Because the same power will cost less bitcoins.
So the small operating cost now is only temporary. It will rise with more competition. Its only because asics are new now. But every miner hardware at some point has to fight with the powercosts to remain profitable.

Ah, I see what you mean, and what you are missing is that as the operating costs increase, the share's fair value would decrease as well, cancelling the later effect of the shares regaining value as the exchange rate increasing.

Example: let's assume the share's fair value is 0.6 BTC today. If the relative operating costs were to increase from 3% to 50% due to increased Bitcoin difficulty, the profit margin would halve from 97% to 50%, thereby reducing the share's fair value in half, from 0.6 to 0.3 BTC. Later, if the BTC exchange rate increases and reduces the operating costs from 50% back to 3%, the share's fair value would double, from 0.3 to 0.6 BTC, and we are back to its original value! This is my whole point: today share's fair value is pretty much as high as it can ever be, because relative operating costs are as low as they can ever be.

hi there, one more post

sorry for being a little offensive. you got the mechanisms right, but nobody here is missing the fact that higher difficulty means higher cost, lower profit and share value. nobody! we were discussing the effect of usd/btc increase on share value isolated from difficulty increase due to competition. there, you dont seem to have figured out the big picture, but i'm sure you will.

ThickAsThieves

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Quote from: lophie on March 14, 2013, 02:13:04 PM

Any estimation on the exchange? I would give us a better view to speculate on the price of the shares. Plus I want to sell some shares and I need to be very sure they are not undervalued.

- Just IMO the shares will not lose the value of 0.7BTC fir a very long time.

IMO, everyone should either leave their shares with Friedcat, or move them to BitFunder/BCTC. I just can't see justifying the distraction of the Bitfountain team to create that which already exists.

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