Any estimation on the exchange? I would give us a better view to speculate on the price of the shares. Plus I want to sell some shares and I need to be very sure they are not undervalued.
- Just IMO the shares will not lose the value of 0.7BTC fir a very long time.
Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1231. (Read 3917543 times)
This would only remain true if the overall hashrate of the network isnt rising much. I mean when its way more competition then the mined coins will be less and the powercosts will rise because more asics are needed for the same bitcoins mined. And if the bitcoin price is rising then its something that works against the powercost. Because the same power will cost less bitcoins.
So the small operating cost now is only temporary. It will rise with more competition. Its only because asics are new now. But every miner hardware at some point has to fight with the powercosts to remain profitable.
So the small operating cost now is only temporary. It will rise with more competition. Its only because asics are new now. But every miner hardware at some point has to fight with the powercosts to remain profitable.
Ah, I see what you mean, and what you are missing is that as the operating costs increase, the share's fair value would decrease as well, cancelling the later effect of the shares regaining value as the exchange rate increasing.
Example: let's assume the share's fair value is 0.6 BTC today. If the relative operating costs were to increase from 3% to 50% due to increased Bitcoin difficulty, the profit margin would halve from 97% to 50%, thereby reducing the share's fair value in half, from 0.6 to 0.3 BTC. Later, if the BTC exchange rate increases and reduces the operating costs from 50% back to 3%, the share's fair value would double, from 0.3 to 0.6 BTC, and we are back to its original value! This is my whole point: today share's fair value is pretty much as high as it can ever be, because relative operating costs are as low as they can ever be.
Nothing but respect for what the ASICMiner guys have accomplished, but I agree the share price has gotten a little soggy around the mid section. 
[...] because of lower operating / development cost.
I already told if BTC went up, relative operating costs can at best go from ~3% to ~0%. That is insignificant.
If BTC doubles from $50 to $100, a share at 0.6 BTC already implicitly gains value ($30 -> $60 = doubling). It would not go to 1.2 BTC ($30 -> $120 = quadrupling). I do not know how to explain it more simply.
This would only remain true if the overall hashrate of the network isnt rising much. I mean when its way more competition then the mined coins will be less and the powercosts will rise because more asics are needed for the same bitcoins mined. And if the bitcoin price is rising then its something that works against the powercost. Because the same power will cost less bitcoins.
So the small operating cost now is only temporary. It will rise with more competition. Its only because asics are new now. But every miner hardware at some point has to fight with the powercosts to remain profitable.
Regarding the price... while Asicminer shares are highly overvalued... i want to buy 168 Asicminer shares for 0.68BTC each.
So someone wants to make a good trade for this way too high share price? Of course only with escrow. Someone from this list https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1180916 maybe johnthedong or some other trusted member.Asicminer shares are still undervalued. Good Luck with finding someone who will sell at only 0.68.
[...] because of lower operating / development cost.
I already told you that if BTC went up, relative operating costs can at best go from ~3% to ~0%. This is insignificant.
If BTC doubles from $50 to $100, a share at 0.6 BTC already implicitly gains value ($30 -> $60 = doubling). You seem to think there is an economic reason which would further increase its fair value, say to 1.2 BTC ($30 -> $120 = quadrupling). That makes no sense. I do not know how to explain it more simply to you.
poly: this is why I defined the bet as "at least 10 units shipped" for me to win it
wrong again.. sorry man. operating cost may be negligible now. in the future (i hope not so near future) they will DEFINE what is profitable or not.
Wrong? This does not contradict what I said. In fact, thanks for bringing this point: because relative operating costs are guaranteed to increase in the future (mining will never stay this much profitable), they should cause the company's worth (hence the fair value per share) to decrease over time. More precisely, if the BTC price/difficulty ratio stays constant, the company's worth will stay constant. But if difficulty increases faster than the BTC price (which is inevitable as miners transition to more and more efficient ASICs), the company's worth will naturally decline.
Which goes back to my original point that the current high share price (IMHO) can only be justified if ASICMINER develops more efficient chips to maintain profitability, and high dividends.
Except there is no room for relative costs to go down. Assuming 0.10/kWh (worldwide average), ASICMINER's electrical costs currently represent only 0.28% of their BTC revenues (friedcat disclosed an efficiency of 167 Mhash/Joule). Assuming their other operating costs are 10x higher (salaries, data center space, etc), they represent only 2.8% of their BTC revenues.
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
wrong again.. sorry man. operating cost may be negligible now. in the future (i hope not so near future) they will DEFINE what is profitable or not.
Wrong? This does not contradict what I said. In fact, thanks for bringing this point: because relative operating costs are guaranteed to increase in the future (mining will never stay this much profitable), they should cause the company's worth (hence the fair value per share) to decrease over time. More precisely, if the BTC price/difficulty ratio stays constant, the company's worth will stay constant. But if difficulty increases faster than the BTC price (which is inevitable as miners transition to more and more efficient ASICs), the company's worth will naturally decline.
Which goes back to my original point that the current high share price (IMHO) can only be justified if ASICMINER develops more efficient chips to maintain profitability, and high dividends.
ok my last post on this: current AM share value represents future profits. if usd/btc inreases, value of AM shares increases aswell because of lower operating / development cost.
btc up -> AM up
btc up -> SD down
poly: this is why I defined the bet as "at least 10 units shipped" for me to win it
wrong again.. sorry man. operating cost may be negligible now. in the future (i hope not so near future) they will DEFINE what is profitable or not.
Wrong? This does not contradict what I said. In fact, thanks for bringing this point: because relative operating costs are guaranteed to increase in the future (mining will never stay this much profitable), they should cause the company's worth (hence the fair value per share) to decrease over time. More precisely, if the BTC price/difficulty ratio stays constant, the company's worth will stay constant. But if difficulty increases faster than the BTC price (which is inevitable as miners transition to more and more efficient ASICs), the company's worth will naturally decline.
Which goes back to my original point that the current high share price (IMHO) can only be justified if ASICMINER develops more efficient chips to maintain profitability, and high dividends.
Except there is no room for relative costs to go down. Assuming 0.10/kWh (worldwide average), ASICMINER's electrical costs currently represent only 0.28% of their BTC revenues (friedcat disclosed an efficiency of 167 Mhash/Joule). Assuming their other operating costs are 10x higher (salaries, data center space, etc), they represent only 2.8% of their BTC revenues.
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
wrong again.. sorry man. operating cost may be negligible now. in the future (i hope not so near future) they will DEFINE what is profitable or not.
Wrong? This does not contradict what I said. In fact, thanks for bringing this point: because relative operating costs are guaranteed to increase in the future (mining will never stay this much profitable), they should cause the company's worth (hence the fair value per share) to decrease over time. More precisely, if the BTC price/difficulty ratio stays constant, the company's worth will stay constant. But if difficulty increases faster than the BTC price (which is inevitable as miners transition to more and more efficient ASICs), the company's worth will naturally decline.
Which goes back to my original point that the current high share price (IMHO) can only be justified if ASICMINER develops more efficient chips to maintain profitability, and high dividends.
Centralized mining is always more profitable (time/energy/money) than decentralized. That's how the world works. Big factory makes more stuff, cheaper. But, please make "ASICminer shares are too high" thread or something, we cannot do anything about the price. It is determined by free market at this point, no matter what is our opinion. This trivial debate only clutters this thread.
poly: I will win because I did not bet they will ship all units, but merely 10 or more
wrong again.. sorry man. operating cost may be negligible now. in the future (i hope not so near future) they will DEFINE what is profitable or not.
Wrong? This does not contradict what I said. In fact, thanks for bringing this point: because relative operating costs are guaranteed to increase in the future (mining will never stay this much profitable), they should cause the company's worth (hence the fair value per share) to decrease over time. More precisely, if the BTC price/difficulty ratio stays constant, the company's worth will stay constant. But if difficulty increases faster than the BTC price (which is inevitable as miners transition to more and more efficient ASICs), the company's worth will naturally decline.
Which goes back to my original point that the current high share price (IMHO) can only be justified if ASICMINER develops more efficient chips to maintain profitability, and high dividends.
Except there is no room for relative costs to go down. Assuming 0.10/kWh (worldwide average), ASICMINER's electrical costs currently represent only 0.28% of their BTC revenues (friedcat disclosed an efficiency of 167 Mhash/Joule). Assuming their other operating costs are 10x higher (salaries, data center space, etc), they represent only 2.8% of their BTC revenues.
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
wrong again.. sorry man. operating cost may be negligible now. in the future (i hope not so near future) they will DEFINE what is profitable or not.
Wrong? This does not contradict what I said. In fact, thanks for bringing this point: because relative operating costs are guaranteed to increase in the future (mining will never stay this much profitable), they should cause the company's worth (hence the fair value per share) to decrease over time. More precisely, if the BTC price/difficulty ratio stays constant, the company's worth will stay constant. But if difficulty increases faster than the BTC price (which is inevitable as miners transition to more and more efficient ASICs), the company's worth will naturally decline.
Which goes back to my original point that the current high share price (IMHO) can only be justified if ASICMINER develops more efficient chips to maintain profitability, and high dividends.
AM shares can only profit from higher USD/BTC exchange rates, because of lower maintenance, power, development etc. costs in btc.
See my response to iCEBREAKER below.
They earn BTC, but they are also priced in BTC to start with. Therefore if BTC doubles in value, then both their earning and price already implicitly double in USD value, hence preserving the value proposition of the shares. There are no economic reasons for their numerical BTC value to further increase on top of that change.
ASICMINER's (the company) expenses and debts are denominated in fiat, not btc.
As btc appreciates vs fiat, ASICMINER Inc.'s relative operating costs go down, their profit margin goes up, and dividends increase accordingly.
[...]
Except there is no room for relative costs to go down. Assuming 0.10/kWh (worldwide average), ASICMINER's electrical costs currently represent only 0.28% of their BTC revenues (friedcat disclosed an efficiency of 167 Mhash/Joule). Assuming their other operating costs are 10x higher (salaries, data center space, etc), they represent only 2.8% of their BTC revenues.
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
Your argument works for gold mining companies, because their relative operating costs are a lot higher than ~3%.
wrong again.. sorry man. operating cost may be negligible now. in the future (i hope not so near future) they will DEFINE what is profitable or not.
mrb, like you've bet with Micon, you are thinking that BFL and co will actually ship in the next few months. You're about to lose your bet with Micon, and while I have no doubts about BFL shipping a few units, they're not going to ship all their orders in a few days.
AM shares can only profit from higher USD/BTC exchange rates, because of lower maintenance, power, development etc. costs in btc.
See my response to iCEBREAKER below.
They earn BTC, but they are also priced in BTC to start with. Therefore if BTC doubles in value, then both their earning and price already implicitly double in USD value, hence preserving the value proposition of the shares. There are no economic reasons for their numerical BTC value to further increase on top of that change.
ASICMINER's (the company) expenses and debts are denominated in fiat, not btc.
As btc appreciates vs fiat, ASICMINER Inc.'s relative operating costs go down, their profit margin goes up, and dividends increase accordingly.
[...]
Except there is no room for relative costs to go down. Assuming 0.10/kWh (worldwide average), ASICMINER's electrical costs currently represent only 0.28% of their BTC revenues (friedcat disclosed an efficiency of 167 Mhash/Joule). Assuming their other operating costs are 10x higher (salaries, data center space, etc), they represent only 2.8% of their BTC revenues.
So if BTC were to appreciate a lot today, making operating costs completely negligible, their profit margin and dividends would at most be increased by ~3%...
Your argument works for gold mining companies, because their relative operating costs are a lot higher than ~3%.
Friedcat... why did the deployment in the last week remain so slow? It looks like it goes forward slower than before, nearly not. Whats the reason for that?
Yes I do take it into account: my point is that investing 0.6 BTC in Bitcoin may be more profitable than investing 0.6 BTC in ASICMINER. Because if BTC appreciates to $1000, then at the end of the day 0.6 BTC will be worth $600, whereas your ASICMINER share will be worth $250 (assuming my hypothetical example where the share is worth close to nothing after having returned only 0.25 BTC in dividends).
So, in your investment decisions, you need to compare them against holding BTC. If an investment does worse than merely holding BTC, then it is not an optimal investment.
So, in your investment decisions, you need to compare them against holding BTC. If an investment does worse than merely holding BTC, then it is not an optimal investment.
That's just plain wrong for ASICMINER shares. Appreciation of BTC only has a positive effect on ASICMINER share value, because they earn you BTC.
No. They earn BTC, but they are also priced in BTC to start with. Therefore if BTC doubles in value, then both their earning and price already implicitly double in USD value, hence preserving the value proposition of the shares. There are no economic reasons for their numerical BTC value to further increase on top of that change.
Another way to look at it is that the same share priced "X" BTC will return the same "Y" BTC of dividends regardless of the USD/BTC exchange rate. Variation of the exchange rate alone is insufficient to rationally cause "X" to increase while Y" remains constant. In fact, irrational investors who would buy more and more shares for no reason (pushing X up) would cause the dividend yield (Y/X) to decrease therefore making investing in ASICMINER less and less attractive compared to just holding BTC.
that's an effect of share valuation and has nothing to do with btc appreciation. Just have a look at SDICE. Imagine BTC suddenly appreciated from say 100 usd to 100 000 usd. do you think betting volume in usd would also increase by a factor of 1000 ? no? ok, i would also assume it stays the same in usd. that would mean dividends in btc would decrease by a factor of 1000. and that means, assuming same valuation of dividends, share value in btc would also decrease by a factor of 1000. bad times. THAT can never happen to AM shares, because profit is not bound to USD, but directly to BTC.
AM shares can only profit from higher USD/BTC exchange rates, because of lower maintenance, power, development etc. costs in btc.
They earn BTC, but they are also priced in BTC to start with. Therefore if BTC doubles in value, then both their earning and price already implicitly double in USD value, hence preserving the value proposition of the shares. There are no economic reasons for their numerical BTC value to further increase on top of that change.
ASICMINER's (the company) expenses and debts are denominated in fiat, not btc.
As btc appreciates vs fiat, ASICMINER Inc.'s relative operating costs go down, their profit margin goes up, and dividends increase accordingly.
This is the exact same reason why in a bull market gold mining companies eventually outperform gold.
Deadterra, why you didn't tell the guy he can lockdown 250+ shares out of bitfunder. Or did I get my info wrong ?
Ah yes ofc, shares can be moved from and to BF, as they are 1:1 backed by real shares if you have over 250 shares you can simply withdraw them for AM shares.
//DeaDTerra
Deadterra, why you didn't tell the guy he can lockdown 250+ shares out of bitfunder. Or did I get my info wrong ?
There are 2 pass throughs that have been setup where you can buy ASICMiner shares.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
Thats not what i search and i cant buy asicminer shares there, only shares that pass through asicminer. And that means i dont own the asicminer shares. When the issuer decides to run i cant do anything against and dont have anything. That would only mean another layer of insecureness between.
I want to buy real asicminer shares only.
Hi there. I'm managing the btct.co PT at https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
Similar to DeaDTerra, my real name is my handle, and is all over the interwebs. I had a 15 year history as president/ceo of a successful hosting company with a great track record before recently shifting gears and handing off the reigns. I'm a little-league t-ball coach, cub scout leader, small town kind of guy.
I recognize and respect the need to be careful in bitcoinland. If anything bad happens to shares or funds in my care, it's not going to be anything intentional on my part.
There are 2 pass throughs that have been setup where you can buy ASICMiner shares.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
Thats not what i search and i cant buy asicminer shares there, only shares that pass through asicminer. And that means i dont own the asicminer shares. When the issuer decides to run i cant do anything against and dont have anything. That would only mean another layer of insecureness between.
I want to buy real asicminer shares only.
I am here to stay for the long time,
http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=DeaDTerra
I have been following bitcoins for two years and I wouldn't do anything to that could damage Bitcoins or it's community.
I am also sure that FriedCat would make sure that I would not get away with running away.
My ID is being held in escrow by kluge, my full name and ID is also known by handfull of individuals of the community.
//DeaDTerra
I didnt mean to insult you because i dont know who ran the PT. I only know glbse and the experiences with it so i will avoid any potential risk if possible.
Gabit... ill try the unified thread...
Simply wanted to show that even if it's a extra risk, it's a pretty small risk
Even if BF shuts down, I can return the shares to the shareholders of the PT
//DeaDTErra
There are 2 pass throughs that have been setup where you can buy ASICMiner shares.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
Thats not what i search and i cant buy asicminer shares there, only shares that pass through asicminer. And that means i dont own the asicminer shares. When the issuer decides to run i cant do anything against and dont have anything. That would only mean another layer of insecureness between.
I want to buy real asicminer shares only.
I am here to stay for the long time,
http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=DeaDTerra
I have been following bitcoins for two years and I wouldn't do anything to that could damage Bitcoins or it's community.
I am also sure that FriedCat would make sure that I would not get away with running away.
My ID is being held in escrow by kluge, my full name and ID is also known by handfull of individuals of the community.
//DeaDTerra
I didnt mean to insult you because i dont know who ran the PT. I only know glbse and the experiences with it so i will avoid any potential risk if possible.
Gabit... ill try the unified thread...
There are 2 pass throughs that have been setup where you can buy ASICMiner shares.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
Thats not what i search and i cant buy asicminer shares there, only shares that pass through asicminer. And that means i dont own the asicminer shares. When the issuer decides to run i cant do anything against and dont have anything. That would only mean another layer of insecureness between.
I want to buy real asicminer shares only.
I am here to stay for the long time,
http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=DeaDTerra
I have been following bitcoins for two years and I wouldn't do anything to that could damage Bitcoins or it's community.
I am also sure that FriedCat would make sure that I would not get away with running away.
My ID is being held in escrow by kluge, my full name and ID is also known by handfull of individuals of the community.
//DeaDTerra
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