Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1233. (Read 3917058 times)

The ~50TH/s batch.

Thanks for the update and dividend !

By next batch, do you mean the other 6TH or the 50Th ?

Thanks

Still more than one week to finish the first clause of ASICMINER's investor protection.

687 Bitcoins have been excluded from the dividends to pay for the premium of pcb production, assembly and components of the next batch, as well as the operation costs.

Dividend day thread spam: just got BTC0.023786 per share.   

True for SD, wrong for AM. AM cannot be outpaced by bitcoin.

It's just a question of which will grow faster or stop growing. To have businesses doing business on a currency grow slower than the currency itself is unheard of. SDICE and AM are the top dogs and yet are expected be outpaced by bitcoin.

That's just plain wrong for ASICMINER shares. Appreciation of BTC only has a positive effect on ASICMINER share value, because they earn you BTC. It does however apply to SatoshiDice, because betting volume (and hence profit) sure does correlate with USD/BTC.

It might even be a good idea to accept pre-orders for consumer and/or professional products now to increase liquidity and cover investment costs. Friedcat and his team achieved high reputation and proved to be more reliable than all competitors. Why not finance future endeavors with pre-orders, as they actually make sense now?

Initial Mining Operation -> Reputation -> Competitive advantage for pre-orders -> Consumer produts

When you want to buy something you have to point out what's wrong with the item and make the price lower.

you seem to be an intelligent guy mrb. So let me tell you what I think. Some of your objections make sense, but I don't understand what you're trying to prove. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares for 0.6. The shares value is created by the market (and will be obviously more exact once there is a trading platform). So if you think they're too expensive - don't buy them. We get your point. Some people think ASICMINER will not be profitable in the future, some think otherwise. Some people think that if the company will be even more successful, they will be trading for 1 BTC a piece in the future. Why not? Friedcat proved that he can deliver and there is more hashrate on the way.

Ahhhh. In this case make bank as a currency trader and forget asic. 

Yes I do take it into account: my point is that investing 0.6 BTC in Bitcoin may be more profitable than investing 0.6 BTC in ASICMINER. Because if BTC appreciates to $1000, then at the end of the day 0.6 BTC will be worth $600, whereas your ASICMINER share will be worth $250 (assuming my hypothetical example where the share is worth close to nothing after having returned only 0.25 BTC in dividends).

So, in your investment decisions, you need to compare them against holding BTC. If an investment does worse than merely holding BTC, then it is not an optimal investment.



I think that because friedcat has communicated very little in terms of future plans. What is his vision for growth beyond the next 12 months? What technical strategy will he adopt to compete with more efficient miners? Will he develop more efficient chips? Does he have the expertise in-house or will he have to hire it? Will he relocate the miners to a location with cheaper electricity? Will he have to hire foreign employees to manage them, or rent expensive oversea colo space? Will he consider building his own data center like Tytus (for his 100 Th/s farm which will be located in Wenatchee where power is only $0.02/kWh). Etc.

Yes. After the dust from the initial deployment settles, the company has to redefine the mission statement. Building professional mining systems (>$1M investment per customer) will be a very viable market. Bitfountain will have the reputation and the expertise to do this. If they play the cards right, Bitfountain will be the Cray of bitcoin mining.

MrTeal... you want to make me proof this? I only see its constantly rising the past and only in the short time between the death of glbse and now it is nearly 4 times more worth. And i see no hint that this development will stop. Of course it remains a guess.

2014 is a long time from now and China is a big place. 

They have plenty of freezing, snow covered mountains and hydroelectric dams.

AM may deploy later batches to such places, obviating the disadvantages of the 130nm process.

British Columbia or Washington would work too, with better connectivity to boot.   

That's quite right. If you think that ASICMINER will generate negligible profits after one year of operation, you shouldn't value it 0.6 per share. I for one don't understand why I should think that though.

also need to take into account the intrinsic value of the security at the end of your calculations. you should add on how much will you be able to sell shares for (if anything).

...or the competition continues to fall flat on their face.

No, the 0.25 BTC return that I estimated does average out the period of time after and before shareholders have recouped their IPO investment. In other words, ASICMINER will represent 10% of the global hashrate on average, from the moment they launched until the end of 2013 (IOW right now they are at 15% and it will go down to 5%).


No, that would not be a 10% profit. What I explained is that if you buy a share at 0.6 BTC today, and recoup 0.25 BTC by the end of 2013, and if after that the share's worth is close to 0 (because by that time ASICMINER will generate negligible profits), then you have not made any profit. You have lost 0.35 BTC per share.


Even if you make power free or ignore all operating costs, ASICMINER won't generate significant profits: if the difficulty increases by 30x by early 2014, which is a reasonable estimate, then one share (assuming they are at 50 Thash/s) will generate merely 0.014 BTC per month ignoring operating costs. Assuming you buy a share at 0.6 BTC today, and assuming you recoup about half the investment by early 2014 (by my estimate in my previous post), you have 0.3 BTC remaining to be recouped, and at 0.014 BTC per month, at a constantly increasing difficulty, you will basically never do it...

The only shareholders who will make money are those who bought low (0.1-0.3 BTC, eg. those who went in the IPO), or those who manage to buy & sell at the right time (the share may be volatile enough to have lows & highs despite being overpriced). That, or you may make money if ASICMINER's future unknown plans about scaling beyond 50 Thash/s with more efficient chips turn out to be at least moderately successful. Maybe they will but that is not certain at all.