Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1234. (Read 3917543 times)

Regarding share pricing; if you are thinking the sale price of the company, please take into account the IP itself, the initial investment for ASIC production, current inventory, the chips in production and the mining income till the others catch up. However, the real investor would care more about inertia than these. If investment value was measured by inventory, angels wouldn't even exist. I'm sure if you had calculated Apple's share price over its inventory during foundation years, you would have gone the way of Ronald Wayne.


We really need to start using blockchain clocks. At least this would cause a slight decrease in the increase of difficulty, which converts to revenue for us.


Well, fees are there to cover these sort of losses, so I don't see it as an advantage. However there is the real advantage that mining pools are more vigilant about these events. It's their business after all; it could have taken more time for Bitfountain to react.

Your math completely fails to take into account how quickly difficulty is going to rise.

Look, even friedcat estimates that ASICMINER will average only 10% of the global hashrate over the year. It means each share will bring: 25 (coins/block) * 6 (block/hour) * 730 (hours/month) * 9 (months) * 10% / 400k (shares) = merely 0.25 BTC of revenue between now and Dec 2013 (1/10th of your "2.22 BTC" estimate!)

Plus the 0.25 BTC of revenue per share assumes 100% of the mining revenues are going to be distributed to shareholders. We know this is not going to be the case given friedcat's plans (he will reduce the dividend).

And in 2014, all bets are off. ASICMINER's efficiency (130nm chip) is relatively bad compared to other ASICs (55-65nm). They are not hosted in a country with low electricity prices. I can't see how they will remain profitable in 2014. Plus I think 10% of the global hashrate is itself an optimistic estimation for 2013.

This is why I think 0.6 BTC is overpriced for a share that definitely will not return more than 0.25, maybe 0.3 or 0.4 BTC if being overly optimistic.

The only possible justification for a price of 0.6 BTC/share is if you assume that ASICMINER is going to plan to build a more efficient chip, and if they are going to succeed, and if they are going to deploy and ramp it up as fast as (or faster than) the competion. But at this point it would be a very speculative gamble. There are too many "ifs" for me.

True, although in an era where mining is becoming more centralized, they have just shown an advantage of using them versus solo mining. One that a lot of us were not thinking about.

I kinda feel sorry for pool owners who have that policy... this could be a huge sum of orphaned coins out of their pocket.

Appreciate the information, thanks.

Which is why it's not a bad idea to mine on a pool after all

FYI: BTC Guild pays orphaned blocks on PPS (by definition, PPS pays orphaned blocks).  We also pay for them on PPLNS, so this fork event hasn't had any affect on ASICMINER earnings passed through from BTC Guild.

adjusts every 2016 blocks, target is two weeks, right?

how many orphaned did btcguild get?

It should cause it to rise by less.  It will also mean next difficulty change will take longer to reach - so more blocks mined at the current difficulty.  To that limited extent it helps ASICMINER - but that's offset if BTCguild were previously mining on the v0.8, as all work done on the (soon to be) orphaned part of the chain will be lost.  Depends a bit on the pool's policy for paying for orphaned blocks as well.

Will this mess cause the difficulty to increase less the next time it changes? Or will it not have an affect (or only a marginal one)?

Yup, difficulty does not change instantly, it changes about once every 2 weeks.

 

Why would Asicminer earn more because of this? BTCGuild was on 0.8, they'll probably lose some income in this mess.

I hate to crush the euphoria, but difficulty didn't change, so it doesn't really matter how much the hashrate dropped, the #blocks/time is the same for ASICMINER.

GO GO ASICMINER before the other pools refer to 0.7, hehe I expect a few satoshies more this week because of what is happening

Did the hashpower drop, or is it just that a large number of blocks disappeared from the chain and since hashrate is estimated from the number of blocks per hour there is just an anomaly?

This crisis will help ASICMINER enjoy the low difficulty a little bit longer.

Yup, except the hashpower dropped significantly recently.

So actually ASICMINER is now helping ... to SAVE BITCOIN!  hurray!  Mine faster fellow 0.7 miners, we can fix this mess together!

Looks like BTC Guild is fully downgraded to .7 now.