Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 793. (Read 3917468 times)

Not necessary. A significant part of dividends come from selling mining equipment. Because of that, the real profit they are making could be 30% or even more while it has 20% of the total network.

sigh, and once again we hit this discussion.  Just continues that once every 3 to 4 pages some ignorant fool pops up who can't/doesn't read and tries to state share price valuation like he has any idea how bitcoin works.  Well once again here is the answer.  The idea behind bitcoin is that transaction fees will increase by then to a point where they alone will be compensation enough for miners to continue mining.  This effectively destroys your "upper limit" as the same coins can be mined multiple times as TX fees.

Please do some homework before posting crap like its fact, its getting pretty sickening.

and how much in tx fees over that time?

You did forget the hardware sales

Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

Well cheers to that 

I thought I saw the future when I read an e-mail but it was only a test e-mail of what is to come
Darn Jordan lear was about to party keeps waiting 

Fact: Over 30% APR. No idealism necessary.

Fact: 10 year forecast is pure fantasy.

Vycid it's good for us to hear opinions from all sides, but seriously:



You don't know that. Maybe some are very optimistic. But most? You claim that is the reality. Most are probably cautiously optimistic, but then I'd be just guessing. But so what? It's probably true in as much as shareholders of any company are cautiously optimistic about that company. It's hardly a reason to sell out. It's certainly not proof that the share's are overpriced which is what you are implying, in the context of your post.



Generating 'huge' divs is a good thing and whether the share price fully reflects that or not only time will tell. That those divs aren't being reinvested in other ventures is not a bad thing in and of itself, that would depend on the particular venture. It's certainly a pretty long bow to draw to say that since FC hasn't made such investments the share price is artificially inflated, in fact you could easily come to the opposite conclusion.



It's not that simple. There's more to divs than hardware sales. There are other revenue streams. Also, you have to factor in volume of hardware sales not simply margin.



I don't know where you're seeing that or over what time frame, but I suspect you're cherry picking some data to validate your position.



You hope. Hope based on logical analysis? Mmm, don't know if I see that.



Huh? Say what? Less profitable than what?

No offense Vycid, but if you think you are starting to sound a little bit, erm, extreme, in defense of your short position. And a serious question, do you really think the APR should be back in the 40% to 50% range?

Proven is greater than unproven until others step up to the plate the status quo will remain
Transaction fees hehe repeats

And couple that first mover advantage with the fact that they are in China which offers some of the cheapest labor around, and has existing infrastructure for chip manufacturing, which gives AM ANOTHER leg up on would-be startups.

first mover advantage + trust- unlike every scammy company so far

Franchising.

Also, APR of AM is still the biggest among all assetts.

If http://blockchain.info/pools is right, AM's bite on the pie has dropped from around 25% in May to 8% at the moment.
If http://blockchain.info/zh-cn/blocks/ASICMiner is right, AM just mined 18 blocks or 450 BTC on 15th August.
AM shareholders shall probably pray for gap somehow being compensated by the hardware sales.

The reality is that most people that own AM shares are very optimistic about the company. So those huge dividends have, to a large degree, been rolled back into the company rather than being invested in other ventures. This artificially inflates share prices.

As the margins on hardware decrease and cause the dividends to shrink (this will happen - in fact, it already has happened to some extent), that upward pressure on the share price will dissipate, and there will be a price adjustment. And that doesn't even consider any adjustment due to the fact that the company is less profitable in the first place.

Bitcoiners are a very idealistic and optimistic bunch, so naturally there's people waiting to buy AM shares at BTC3.8 on the belief that "it's just worth more". But equities markets are often savage in their adjustments, and this is a serious powder keg... I'm going to go on record as saying that AM will not yield 1.6 million bitcoins in profit in the next ten years (P/E ratio of 10). When people realize that, and try to cash in on their shares, there will be bagholders.

His response (whether you agree with it or not):



That is for the market to decide, time will tell.

Obviously Bitcoin is too small a universe to have had a similar company yet. But I am reminded of South African gold mining companies in the 1970s, where companies would rapidly and regularly pay out dividends bigger than their IPO.

Or, maybe it reminds me of dot com companies around 2000. Not that those companies didn't have great ideas that would play out in the long run, just that they were all horrendously overvalued and awash with competition (ex. Cisco and Amazon, which both crashed ~90% and took a decade to recover).

This venture is indeed the most successful, but is it worth 1.6 million bitcoins?

Can you name any other venture that has made over 150K bitcoins in just 6 months? Paid out dividends 5x of its IPO price? Manufacture and distribute mining hardware without pre-orders?

If so, I'm all ears.

+1!

Did that months ago, and made more than a few satoshis along the way. Life is good.