Ignorance is bliss I suppose, just costly bliss
Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 164. (Read 808847 times)
What astonishes me is how many little guys out there (buying USB sticks, graphic cards etc) think there is still a profit to be turned from their dinky little devices.
Ignorance is bliss I suppose, just costly bliss
Ignorance is bliss I suppose, just costly bliss
I am afraid to say it, but the time of 10-fold ROI on mining equipment for the little guy is over. The opportunity now shifts towards access to excess power. Please note that the characteristics of excess power are interesting: It's highly decentralized and opportunistic and it's a management nightmare for any big player. So it actually has diseconomy of scale per location. It may be very fruit-full to service this field using a business model that works for all involved players.
Hope that clears things up.
Hope that clears things up.
Since the little guy is unable to satisfy his greed with a 10-fold ROI I would suggest he invest in mining securities. Especially ones with high APR and managers that have a good track record.
... I'm pretty sure the gist of my argument was that divs and share price would drop as the competition set to arrive in the coming months came online.
.....As a miner you were appalled that AM was charging so much for their product. To you this appears to be price gauging, making it more costly for you to mine coins if you were to purchase from AM. But its actually maximizing AM price points, which is in the shareholders' best interest. AM was able to do this because they have yet to see serious competition arrive....
Mabsark makes the point that by charging fair market prices for the hardware, the supplier actually disenfranchises the little player, because the price points are close the projected theoretical yield value (a natural outcome of market economy!!). Know that it is even worse with other companies who have opted to accept preorders, as their delivery delays actually may cause the hardware to have "unanticipated" ROI failures.
It is worth considering what would happen if AM charges below the free market value (i.e. would discount) for their hardware. It would instantly sell out and leave the market at a vacuum - and the resale market would thrive with products which were bought at those discounts. Offering products below free market value feeds the speculators with no benefit to AM. Instead it makes more sense for AM to establish solid sales channels and give any discounts to those established contacts, thus handing down the profits in an orderly fashion.
But the critique still stands - how can the supplier "enfranchise" the little guy again? I guess the latest announcement by friedcat is a step in the right direction, where miners do the heavy lifting of running the equipment and get a fair share for maintaining it, without the risk of ROI failures. It's also more in the spirit of decentralization, where the "voting power" resides with the little guy.
I am afraid to say it, but the time of 10-fold ROI on mining equipment for the little guy is over. The opportunity now shifts towards access to excess power. Please note that the characteristics of excess power are interesting: It's highly decentralized and opportunistic and it's a management nightmare for any big player. So it actually has diseconomy of scale per location. It may be very fruit-full to service this field using a business model that works for all involved players.
Hope that clears things up.
My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.
Let's set the record straight. On June 20th we got a div of 0.01810108 per share. On June 22nd you said divs would begin to drop. Over the next two months divs have not dropped a single satoshi. Can't you do simple maths?
Why don't you quote the post of mine you are referring to? I'm pretty sure the gist of my argument was that divs and share price would drop as the competition set to arrive in the coming months came online.
I actually like your posts. You have a unique perspective as far as I'm concerned. You approach your investment as a miner and you have a keen understanding of difficulty and hash rate. What gets tiresome is that you tend to get frustrated and insulting when others don't agree with you. This is why you get labelled a troll and put on ignore. As a miner you were appalled that AM was charging so much for their product. To you this appears to be price gauging, making it more costly for you to mine coins if you were to purchase from AM. But its actually maximizing AM price points, which is in the shareholders' best interest. AM was able to do this because they have yet to see serious competition arrive.
Although you have an advantage by being knowledgable about mining, you are missing something hugely important. AM is first and foremost a hardware manufacturer who mines on the side. AsicMiner WANTS the competition because then they are able to sell more hardware. As competition grows difficulty rises, which rises the demand for ASICs. It doesn't matter from whom. Everyone one knows that demand for ASIC tech is already sky high. If serious competition finally arrives as you say it will, difficulty will rise exponentially. Just imagine what demand will be like then.
But if that competition never substantially materializes, demand will still be high and AM can continue maximizing their price point. Plus AM will have a greater sare of the global hash rate.
Bottom line. Divs aren't going down any time soon.
Again, if anyone was wondering why did he end up in some ignore lists...
For posting facts and maths which some people don't seem to like?
My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.
Let's set the record straight. On June 20th we got a div of 0.01810108 per share. On June 22nd you said divs would begin to drop. Over the next two months divs have not dropped a single satoshi. Can't you do simple maths?
Why don't you quote the post of mine you are referring to? I'm pretty sure the gist of my argument was that divs and share price would drop as the competition set to arrive in the coming months came online.
Again, if anyone was wondering why did he end up in some ignore lists...
My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.
Let's set the record straight. On June 20th we got a div of 0.01810108 per share. On June 22nd you said divs would begin to drop. Over the next two months divs have not dropped a single satoshi. Can't you do simple maths?
The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.
Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think. Here's something you said back on June 22nd.
Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.
Now here we are in the beginning of August. I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this. Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868
Where is the drop? Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.
I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call. So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about. How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.
Why didn't you post the divs from just before that? Let me correct that error for you.
0.01810108
0.03628311
0.03814687
0.02653753
0.02084164
0.03622410
But in early May we were at 0.0007. Divs are up. Can't you do simple maths?
Are why didn't you answer my question about AM franchising?
I've already explained why divs and share price increased. Lack of competition. As for the franchise question, I just didn't see it so I'll answer that now.
I have no idea on the effect it will have. I will reserve my judgement for when I see some data which I can then use to form an opinion.
The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.
Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think. Here's something you said back on June 22nd.
Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.
Now here we are in the beginning of August. I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this. Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868
Where is the drop? Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.
I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call. So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about. How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.
Why didn't you post the divs from just before that? Let me correct that error for you.
0.01810108
0.03628311
0.03814687
0.02653753
0.02084164
0.03622410
But in early May we were at 0.0007. Divs are up. Can't you do simple maths?
Are why didn't you answer my question about AM franchising?
Can I play too ?
0.01108519
0.00735415
0.00773063
0.00696732
0.00695565
0.00255553
Oh wow divs are actually UP!
0.01108519
0.00735415
0.00773063
0.00696732
0.00695565
0.00255553
Oh wow divs are actually UP!
I never made the claim that divs didn't rise so I don't know what you point is. My claim all along has been that AM is currently overpriced and that the rise is divs and share price was due to AM basically having a monopoly. Competition would see divs and share price fall.
My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.
I think we are going to see some record breaking dividends in the coming months, due to mining and sales of block erupters.
Here are 2000 of the USBs recently sold, shipped to the other side of the Earth, and in the process of being delivered to group buyers:
These miners were paid for and shipped within a matter of days-- there is currently no other company out there that is able to do this on this scale. And ASICminer's costs to continue to mass produce these is only going to decrease from this point, making it all the harder for their competitors.
Here are 2000 of the USBs recently sold, shipped to the other side of the Earth, and in the process of being delivered to group buyers:
The Great Wall from China:
These miners were paid for and shipped within a matter of days-- there is currently no other company out there that is able to do this on this scale. And ASICminer's costs to continue to mass produce these is only going to decrease from this point, making it all the harder for their competitors.
1 BFL Minirig is equivalent to about 1500 USB Block Erupters and they've been shipping for a good few weeks now. While these machines may have been ordered lasy year, it does not change the fact that they are coming online on a daily basis. It's amazing how some people can simply dismiss reality.
I ran the numbers the other day for the hashing power shipped out by AM based on the financial report which I will repost below.
USB devices initially cost 1.99 BTC and were later reduced to 0.99 BTC. With discount for bulk orders, the lowest price was 0.89 BTC. If every USB device sold at 1.99 BTC, then that's 18,856 units. If every USB device sold at 0.89 BTC, then that's 42,161 units. At 336 Mh/s per unit, USB Block Erupters make up between 6.336 Th/s and 14.166 Th/s.
There were 3 auctions for blades.
The first auction sold 2 for 76 BTC and 8 for 75 BTC. That's a total of 10 for 752 BTC.
The second auction sold 50 for a total of 2578 BTC.
The third auction sold 180 blades at a fixed price of 49.99 BTC each for a total of 8,998.2 BTC
So, 240 Blades were sold in the 3 auctions for a total of 12,328.2 BTC. By subtracting this value from the Blade Sales Income value, we get the following:
29,594.75 - 12,328.2 = 17,266.55 BTC
which is the amount of income from regular sales, with Blades costing 49.99 each or 47.99 with bulk discount. If every Blade sold at 49.99 BTC, then that's 345 units. If every Blade sold at 47.99 BTC, then that's 359 units. That puts the total number of Blades sold between 605 and 619 units. At 10.752 Gh/s per unit and 619 units, the total hashing power is 6.655 Th/s.
The total hashing power from USB BEs and Blades combined is between 12.991 Th/s and 20.821 Th/s.
Can I play too ?
0.01108519
0.00735415
0.00773063
0.00696732
0.00695565
0.00255553
Oh wow divs are actually UP!
0.01108519
0.00735415
0.00773063
0.00696732
0.00695565
0.00255553
Oh wow divs are actually UP!
look! I said price will drop! I am psychic! 
I said the price would drop, not because I'm psychic but because that what the maths suggests.
The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.
Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think. Here's something you said back on June 22nd.
Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.
Now here we are in the beginning of August. I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this. Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868
Where is the drop? Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.
I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call. So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about. How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.
Why didn't you post the divs from just before that? Let me correct that error for you.
0.01810108
0.03628311
0.03814687
0.02653753
0.02084164
0.03622410
.... Because I posted in this thread saying that AM's dividends and share price would drop as competition arrives in the coming months. ....
by the way, you can get a refund from BFL, if you paid via paypal: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.20
the current price of AM and most securities right now is due to IPO mania that is currently sweeping bitcoin securities.
30% APR? pffff!!!! I want 1000% in 12 hours!
this will correct itself in due time.
look! I said price will drop! I am psychic!
The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.
Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think. Here's something you said back on June 22nd.
Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.
Now here we are in the beginning of August. I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this. Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868
Where is the drop? Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.
I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call. So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about. How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.
I swear I'm on all the ignore lists I just don't have a yellow color since I lack the ability to be ignored in style
I have yet to ignore someone so I see all your messages hehe.
Back to AM speculation the price might drop a bit more but its really hard to tell some equity left to hold some IPO shares in other companys now that the super zomg buy sentiment is fading in the meantime it only takes one of the new batch succeeding and getting some network to make the valuation a bit lower but I guess we will wait though.
Also prediction was owned by the IPO's it was right for a few days though xd
Friedcat has proven himself the others have to prove themselves
Stock price aside AM is a good investment for its Yield just need to make sure you get in without the price dropping to much on you
I have yet to ignore someone so I see all your messages hehe.
Back to AM speculation the price might drop a bit more but its really hard to tell some equity left to hold some IPO shares in other companys now that the super zomg buy sentiment is fading in the meantime it only takes one of the new batch succeeding and getting some network to make the valuation a bit lower but I guess we will wait though.
Also prediction was owned by the IPO's it was right for a few days though xd
Friedcat has proven himself the others have to prove themselves
Stock price aside AM is a good investment for its Yield just need to make sure you get in without the price dropping to much on you
I don't recall how or why it happened, but you don't seem to be on my ignore list presently. I'm pretty liberal with putting people on ignore in the forums, so much noise to filter, but your posts are coming through just fine for now.
I'm not sure how he's posting now, since he's long been put in my ignore, but when I first noticed him we kept on trolling heavily for days.If he's stopped, fine.
I wasn't trolling at all. A lot of people replied to me in a short amount of time, leading me to make about 10 or so comments in a similar short amount of time. That's not trolling, that's how discussions work. The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true. Most people here were claiming that dividends would shoot up to 0.05 BTC and the share price would hit 10+ BTC, whereas I was claiming that dividends would decrease as would share price due to incoming competition.
Now that I've made 2 comments in a short period of time, I guess that means I'm trolling again.
Yes.
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