ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 179.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on July 18, 2013, 09:01:52 AM

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on July 18, 2013, 08:43:39 AM

Quote from: culexevilman on July 18, 2013, 08:36:09 AM

Quote from: Birdy on July 18, 2013, 08:31:04 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 18, 2013, 08:27:52 AM

Where has it dropped 12% - AM1 @ havelock has barely moved .... always expect a slight move down after d-day

Not the Asicminer shares, in fact they gained a bit.
He is talking about the Bitcoin/USD price.

I think a correlation is quite probably.

looks like when BTC/USD price falls, people buy AM shares to hedge their funds.

It often happens the other way, AM shares being sold when BTC goes down.

I'm guessing this jump in AM price is more likely to be speculation in anticipation of S.DICE owners looking for another good dividend stock in the coming days when they get their payout, which would raise the price of AM, probably by quite a lot if there's good news from Friedcat the same time.

The price run up is due to 1 aggressive buyer, not a larger crowd movement. However, I do anticipate some buying after the SDICE payout.

Do you know when the SDICE payout will be made?

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on July 18, 2013, 08:43:39 AM

Quote from: culexevilman on July 18, 2013, 08:36:09 AM

Quote from: Birdy on July 18, 2013, 08:31:04 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 18, 2013, 08:27:52 AM

Where has it dropped 12% - AM1 @ havelock has barely moved .... always expect a slight move down after d-day

Not the Asicminer shares, in fact they gained a bit.
He is talking about the Bitcoin/USD price.

I think a correlation is quite probably.

looks like when BTC/USD price falls, people buy AM shares to hedge their funds.

It often happens the other way, AM shares being sold when BTC goes down.

I'm guessing this jump in AM price is more likely to be speculation in anticipation of S.DICE owners looking for another good dividend stock in the coming days when they get their payout, which would raise the price of AM, probably by quite a lot if there's good news from Friedcat the same time.

The price run up is due to 1 aggressive buyer, not a larger crowd movement. However, I do anticipate some buying after the SDICE payout.

joele

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

Right now someone is buying at 4.7 btc in btct, I sold all my AM-PT shares and bought TAT at lower price and some were transferred to bitfunder to buy AM at 4.4, a good way to arbitrage.

nubbins

legendary

Activity: 1554

Merit: 1009

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Lohoris on July 18, 2013, 08:27:35 AM

Anyone holding more than 99 fractional shares is just a fool IMAO.

Unless they're looking for price speculation and want a higher liquidity (I'm not sure which provides the best liquidity though - given how many exchanges there are with PTs and fractionals).

+1. Full shares are nicer to hold but more cumbersome to trade, IME.

Edit: IMAO = in my awesome opinion? Cool

TsuyokuNaritai

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: culexevilman on July 18, 2013, 08:36:09 AM

Quote from: Birdy on July 18, 2013, 08:31:04 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 18, 2013, 08:27:52 AM

Where has it dropped 12% - AM1 @ havelock has barely moved .... always expect a slight move down after d-day

Not the Asicminer shares, in fact they gained a bit.
He is talking about the Bitcoin/USD price.

I think a correlation is quite probably.

looks like when BTC/USD price falls, people buy AM shares to hedge their funds.

It often happens the other way, AM shares being sold when BTC goes down.

I'm guessing this jump in AM price is more likely to be speculation in anticipation of S.DICE owners looking for another good dividend stock in the coming days when they get their payout, which would raise the price of AM, probably by quite a lot if there's good news from Friedcat the same time.

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: Lohoris on July 18, 2013, 08:28:45 AM

i.e. if price goes up you find a reason, if price goes down "it's just the market"?
makes perfect sense.

The homes of the common man shake when giants walk by.

culexevilman

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1000

Bitcoin is too valuable to be used as a currency

Quote from: Birdy on July 18, 2013, 08:31:04 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 18, 2013, 08:27:52 AM

Where has it dropped 12% - AM1 @ havelock has barely moved .... always expect a slight move down after d-day

Not the Asicminer shares, in fact they gained a bit.
He is talking about the Bitcoin/USD price.

I think a correlation is quite probably.

looks like when BTC/USD price falls, people buy AM shares to hedge their funds.

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: Birdy on July 18, 2013, 08:31:04 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 18, 2013, 08:27:52 AM

Where has it dropped 12% - AM1 @ havelock has barely moved .... always expect a slight move down after d-day

Not the Asicminer shares, in fact they gained a bit.
He is talking about the Bitcoin/USD price.

ah .... please delete my inane question

Birdy

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 18, 2013, 08:27:52 AM

Where has it dropped 12% - AM1 @ havelock has barely moved .... always expect a slight move down after d-day

Not the Asicminer shares, in fact they gained a bit.
He is talking about the Bitcoin/USD price.

I think a correlation is quite probably.

Lohoris

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Bitgoblin

Quote from: Rival on July 18, 2013, 07:49:12 AM

Second, all of those shareholders who got bought out are now looking for a place to invest... and there really is nowhere else to go but ASICminer. Look for the big spike.

There are many places actually.
Not plenty of, but definitely not "just one" either.

Quote from: Taxidermista on July 18, 2013, 08:10:49 AM

Quote from: Rival on July 18, 2013, 07:49:12 AM

One, now we know who was pouring literally millions into btc pushing the price up to $100. They bought Satoshidice.

And do you think today's 12% drop is related too?

+1

Quote from: Rival on July 18, 2013, 08:12:43 AM

Quote from: Taxidermista on July 18, 2013, 08:10:49 AM

Quote from: Rival on July 18, 2013, 07:49:12 AM

One, now we know who was pouring literally millions into btc pushing the price up to $100. They bought Satoshidice.

And do you think today's 12% drop is related too?

It follows as day follows night.

i.e. if price goes up you find a reason, if price goes down "it's just the market"?
makes perfect sense.

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: Taxidermista on July 18, 2013, 08:10:49 AM

Quote from: Rival on July 18, 2013, 07:49:12 AM

One, now we know who was pouring literally millions into btc pushing the price up to $100. They bought Satoshidice.

And do you think today's 12% drop is related too?

Where has it dropped 12% - AM1 @ havelock has barely moved .... always expect a slight move down after d-day

Lohoris

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Bitgoblin

Quote from: chriswilmer on July 18, 2013, 07:30:27 AM

If you get 5000 shares you can become a board member

Not with TAT.AM shares, since they can't be redeemed for direct shares.
So they are actually worth even less than 95% of AM-PT.
However this is counterbalanced by the lower denomination, which allows you to buy some with spare change.
But that's what they are worth: spare change.
Anyone holding more than 99 fractional shares is just a fool IMAO.

Even the third-party risk is lower with AM-PT, since you already have to trust burnside anyway, being the owner of the trading platform.

(nothing personal against TaT, of course)

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: Taxidermista on July 18, 2013, 08:10:49 AM

Quote from: Rival on July 18, 2013, 07:49:12 AM

One, now we know who was pouring literally millions into btc pushing the price up to $100. They bought Satoshidice.

And do you think today's 12% drop is related too?

It follows as day follows night.

Taxidermista

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Rival on July 18, 2013, 07:49:12 AM

One, now we know who was pouring literally millions into btc pushing the price up to $100. They bought Satoshidice.

And do you think today's 12% drop is related too?

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Two points:

One, now we know who was pouring literally millions into btc pushing the price up to $100. They bought Satoshidice.

Second, all of those shareholders who got bought out are now looking for a place to invest... and there really is nowhere else to go but ASICminer. Look for the big spike.

chriswilmer

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Lohoris on July 18, 2013, 04:42:26 AM

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on July 17, 2013, 03:05:12 PM

Quote from: notme on July 17, 2013, 02:45:23 PM

Only the last sentence is correct.

5% price difference is what you should expect on a 5% dividend fee.

Every time you get paid, you get 5% less.

Velacreations has the right idea, and is even trying to teach you, forgoing his own advantage.

The 5% mgmt fee on dividends does not directly devalue the share by 5%. The math is not as simple as that.

Believe what you want, but those who can do better math, and those who are better at trading will just benefit more.

Share price and yield from dividend are not proportionally correlated. For example, it was not long ago that AM shares were half the price of today, and paying the same divs. Divs did not double, yet the price did.

WAT

Of course they are: if you pay 5% less, the share is *exactly* worth 5% less.

The dividend is the only thing that matters in the end:
if you are an investor you don't care about share price once you have bought it,
if you are a speculator you do care, but since for investors the price is 5% lower, it will as a consequence be lower for speculators too.

The only value in this asset is the dividend, since it bears no voting powers or whatever, anything else are just ghosts.

If you get 5000 shares you can become a board member. I assume they vote on stuff, so that would imply that the shares do have value in that sense. Also, I think most investors do care about the share price going up...

Lohoris

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Bitgoblin

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on July 17, 2013, 03:05:12 PM

Quote from: notme on July 17, 2013, 02:45:23 PM

Only the last sentence is correct.

5% price difference is what you should expect on a 5% dividend fee.

Every time you get paid, you get 5% less.

Velacreations has the right idea, and is even trying to teach you, forgoing his own advantage.

The 5% mgmt fee on dividends does not directly devalue the share by 5%. The math is not as simple as that.

Believe what you want, but those who can do better math, and those who are better at trading will just benefit more.

Share price and yield from dividend are not proportionally correlated. For example, it was not long ago that AM shares were half the price of today, and paying the same divs. Divs did not double, yet the price did.

WAT

Of course they are: if you pay 5% less, the share is *exactly* worth 5% less.

The dividend is the only thing that matters in the end:
if you are an investor you don't care about share price once you have bought it,
if you are a speculator you do care, but since for investors the price is 5% lower, it will as a consequence be lower for speculators too.

The only value in this asset is the dividend, since it bears no voting powers or whatever, anything else are just ghosts.

vlaoou321

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

asicminer so cool Grin

freedomno1

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1094

Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on July 17, 2013, 07:28:43 PM

Quote from: freedomno1 on July 17, 2013, 06:55:00 PM

Quote from: Pierre on July 17, 2013, 06:54:46 PM

Quote from: freedomno1 on July 17, 2013, 06:53:30 PM

On a sidenote Evoorhees sold Sdice

Wait what

You heard me
Anyways it is the end of an era and mpex's jewel is gone
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2751536

So... boost in AM price as ex-S.DICE shareholders with spare BTC suddenly burning a hole in their wallets look for another security with similar dividend returns?

Sure lets run with that more investors into AM incoming Grin

(Sidenote well I guess that helps my random prediction to come true haha a shot out of left field)

TsuyokuNaritai

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: freedomno1 on July 17, 2013, 06:55:00 PM

Quote from: Pierre on July 17, 2013, 06:54:46 PM

Quote from: freedomno1 on July 17, 2013, 06:53:30 PM

On a sidenote Evoorhees sold Sdice

Wait what

You heard me
Anyways it is the end of an era and mpex's jewel is gone
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2751536

So... boost in AM price as ex-S.DICE shareholders with spare BTC suddenly burning a hole in their wallets look for another security with similar dividend returns?

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 179. (Read 808905 times)