Author

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 247. (Read 808905 times)

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 01:22:59 PM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

No, I couldn't be arsed to pay attention to what you said when you compared old ASICMINER hardware (early 2013) with vaporware, scheduled to be launched at end of year. Apples and ... not even oranges.

ASICMINER priced their stuff to sell. And it has. That is perfectly normal business. Its not outrageous prices because if it was, nobody would have bought the things. Think before you type.

Outrageous is announcing vaporware many months in advance and watching gullible people flock to pre-order it because the specs are way ahead of today's standards. Of course stuff delivered in 6 months time will be much much better. That goes without saying. That's if they deliver.

At least ASICMINER have a history of delivering stuff, and maintaining a high % of the total network hashing power.

Competition is to be expected because its a profitable business. Whether the competition can live with the team first to market remains to be seen.

No need to cry and waffle on about irrelevancies because I stated a fact. AM hardware has been vastly overpriced due to not having any competition. With competition available it won't be able to charge such outrageous prices. And seriously, if you think 2 BTC for a USB miner is not insane, then you are insane.

Who cares if AM are bringing out 2nd generation miners. If they want to sell such hardware, it'll also have to be priced competitively, so closer to 50 Mh/s per USD than 2 Mh/s per USD. For the mining operation, all those new chips will do is decrease the power consumption, which should cause a very slight increase in dividends due to lower power costs. It won't be anywhere near enough to offset the decrease in income from hardware sales, nor the decrease in income due to a decrease in the share of the network hash rate.

Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.
The price of AM also determine by its supply, those limited supply in market ,also make it valuable than anything else.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 22, 2013, 01:16:38 PM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

No, I couldn't be arsed to pay attention to what you said when you compared old ASICMINER hardware (early 2013) with vaporware, scheduled to be launched at end of year. Apples and ... not even oranges.

ASICMINER priced their stuff to sell. And it has. That is perfectly normal business. Its not outrageous prices because if it was, nobody would have bought the things. Think before you type.

Outrageous is announcing vaporware many months in advance and watching gullible people flock to pre-order it because the specs are way ahead of today's standards. Of course stuff delivered in 6 months time will be much much better. That goes without saying. That's if they deliver.

At least ASICMINER have a history of delivering stuff, and maintaining a high % of the total network hashing power.

Competition is to be expected because its a profitable business. Whether the competition can live with the team first to market remains to be seen.

No need to cry and waffle on about irrelevancies because I stated a fact. AM hardware has been vastly overpriced due to not having any competition. With competition available it won't be able to charge such outrageous prices. And seriously, if you think 2 BTC for a USB miner is not insane, then you are insane.

Who cares if AM are bringing out 2nd generation miners. If they want to sell such hardware, it'll also have to be priced competitively, so closer to 50 Mh/s per USD than 2 Mh/s per USD. For the mining operation, all those new chips will do is decrease the power consumption, which should cause a very slight increase in dividends due to lower power costs. It won't be anywhere near enough to offset the decrease in income from hardware sales, nor the decrease in income due to a decrease in the share of the network hash rate.

Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 01:11:12 PM

It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.



I really do not like this comparison , because it ignored the basic truth which use AM today's product to compare with some 6 months later products.

I had post before, AM is company manufacture in China, you should understand that the cost of producing electronic products is much much lower than anywhere else in the world also that the possibility to speed put those products into mass production.
As FriedCat announced it will delivery better products in Oct this year and it will be much better than anything else.
You are trying to believe a new entry with sample products has more capability than current leader?
Anyone has the knowledge in integrated circuit manufacturing will know that the difference between 110NM standards and 28NM standards isn't technology difference, it different in the production equipment which involved to produce it.
You are trying to see that Chinese integrated circuit manufacturing are not capable to produce chips at 28NM standard?
I think this totally nonsense, that IPOD /IPHONE are manufactured in the same province where AM operated.
sr. member
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 01:08:24 PM
I agree with this part:

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.

So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
June 22, 2013, 12:09:36 PM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

No, I couldn't be arsed to pay attention to what you said when you compared old ASICMINER hardware (early 2013) with vaporware, scheduled to be launched at end of year. Apples and ... not even oranges.

ASICMINER priced their stuff to sell. And it has. That is perfectly normal business. Its not outrageous prices because if it was, nobody would have bought the things. Think before you type.

Outrageous is announcing vaporware many months in advance and watching gullible people flock to pre-order it because the specs are way ahead of today's standards. Of course stuff delivered in 6 months time will be much much better. That goes without saying. That's if they deliver.

At least ASICMINER have a history of delivering stuff, and maintaining a high % of the total network hashing power.

Competition is to be expected because its a profitable business. Whether the competition can live with the team first to market remains to be seen.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 22, 2013, 11:53:37 AM
AM will probably have better hardware to sell than what they have now by then. They will also be able to sell their old, less-efficients ASICs (sure it will be for less) if they replace them in their datacenter.

They have the experience and people know they ship. So I doubt they'll have trouble selling new hardware.

You're missing the point. I'm not saying that ASICMINER will not sell any more hardware, I'm saying that they wont be able to sell it for stupid money due to competition having ASICs available at a reasonable price. How much will someone pay for an "old" 10 Gh/s Blade when they could buy a KnC off the shelf?

This will quite obviously reduce the income from hardware sales. To claim otherwise is pure stupidity.

The days of ASICMINER's monopoly are coming to an end and with it, we'll see an end to such outrageous prices for mining equipment and stocks.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
June 22, 2013, 11:34:26 AM

Why are people worried about tiny downturns when the general direction is up up up?

In this market, there seem to be a lot of speculators, so the recent hashrate drop and lower dividend (even though most of us knew div decrease was coming) caused some uncertainty in the market.

When the 2.5 wall came down, the price stabilized at about 2.75 - 2.85, but there was still some uncertainty built in with the hash rate drop. Friendcat making an official announcement that the issues were only temporary assuaged some of the (very) recent concerns and popped the price up over 3.

It's hard to tell (for me) what a good valuation is for AM. PMB's are easy to value since they pay out a certain dividend based upon the difficulty. AM is more like a real company that reacts to competitive threats and is designing solutions for the future. They've got their own products and strategy, not just mining with a fixed hash rate. So, I'm hoping that my buys at 2.5 and 3 are good choices, but it really will probably be a few months down the road until we see how much this bet will pay off.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 22, 2013, 11:31:31 AM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
June 22, 2013, 11:28:25 AM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.
[/quote0

thanks wow! >>  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-240FvDSJs&feature=youtu.be&a
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
June 22, 2013, 11:25:52 AM
AM will probably have better hardware to sell than what they have now by then. They will also be able to sell their old, less-efficients ASICs (sure it will be for less) if they replace them in their datacenter.

They have the experience and people know they ship. So I doubt they'll have trouble selling new hardware.

There's no probably about it. Look how hashing power has increased in the last 6 months. Fast forward to end of 2013. AM will deliver significantly better hardware, both for their own mining op. and selling.

What others do is pure guesswork. Some may deliver all of what they say, some may deliver some of what they say. Some may be BFL  Wink
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
June 22, 2013, 11:22:53 AM
wow, slipped back down to 3 over night.  Any reason for that?

I just mentioned it a few posts above this one.

Woke up to some trade confirmations that got me in on TAT at .03 around 145AM-245AM ET, looks like someone sold it down to about .0292. There weren't a ton of bids last night, so I wasn't too surprised to see it dip down. It was probably only around 100-125 total volume.

Saw BTC-TC before it went totally down this morning and the price looked liked it was around .0313 ASK, with significant BID pressure at .0304 - between 400-700 qty bid at that price.

I think the better question is why did it suddenly jump well over 3? It was only 48 hrs ago I bought mine for 2.75.

Why are people worried about tiny downturns when the general direction is up up up?
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
June 22, 2013, 11:13:18 AM
wow, slipped back down to 3 over night.  Any reason for that?

I just mentioned it a few posts above this one.

Woke up to some trade confirmations that got me in on TAT at .03 around 145AM-245AM ET, looks like someone sold it down to about .0292. There weren't a ton of bids last night, so I wasn't too surprised to see it dip down. It was probably only around 100-125 total volume.

Saw BTC-TC before it went totally down this morning and the price looked liked it was around .0313 ASK, with significant BID pressure at .0304 - between 400-700 qty bid at that price.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1026
June 22, 2013, 11:09:04 AM
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Yeah, but only if they stop working and still sell Blades for 50 BTC in the next months.

The next ASIC generation will come, shall it be KNC, Avalon or ASICMINER generation 2.

History showed us, what they are capable of doing and I have no reason to believe things will change fundamentally soon.
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
June 22, 2013, 10:52:50 AM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.

+1
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1227
Away on an extended break
June 22, 2013, 10:52:28 AM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.

+1. I want a lot of them too, and not just one. Tongue
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
June 22, 2013, 10:43:42 AM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 22, 2013, 10:41:34 AM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 09:51:09 AM
last price is 3.13, so I guess it is bouncing back (whenever btct is back)
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
June 22, 2013, 09:44:15 AM
wow, slipped back down to 3 over night.  Any reason for that?

I just mentioned it a few posts above this one.

I'm talking about last night, the most recent dip, not the options thing:



Sorry about that.  Not sure, maybe people just panic selling because they don't understand why it dropped earlier? 

Not everything a signal, sometimes people just want to sell their position at the current price.
member
Activity: 117
Merit: 10
June 22, 2013, 09:35:48 AM
wow, slipped back down to 3 over night.  Any reason for that?

I just mentioned it a few posts above this one.

I'm talking about last night, the most recent dip, not the options thing:



Sorry about that.  Not sure, maybe people just panic selling because they don't understand why it dropped earlier? 
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