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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 245. (Read 808853 times)

sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 06:07:25 PM
What you are missing is the marginal production costs.  I would guess that now that they are masked out, the chips cost $10 a piece and the USB boards with heatsink (for example) cost another $10.  Current price is 2BTC.  There is a huge decrease in price that can be made and still be profitable.  As competitors come online only one thing will matter: who can source their chips and boards the fastest.

that's where having the facilities and experience of producing 300 TH rapidly actually counts for something.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
June 22, 2013, 05:45:12 PM
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

What you are missing is the marginal production costs.  I would guess that now that they are masked out, the chips cost $10 a piece and the USB boards with heatsink (for example) cost another $10.  Current price is 2BTC.  There is a huge decrease in price that can be made and still be profitable.  As competitors come online only one thing will matter: who can source their chips and boards the fastest.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
June 22, 2013, 04:53:57 PM
If investors are using you as a yardstick to compare similar products you have become the de facto standard.

The value of this position is almost incalculable.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 04:01:18 PM
If you really worry about AM , then you can sell your shares, that is your decision.

he says we're all stupid for valuing AM at current share prices, so I'm sure he'll sell us his shares for 1.5, right?

1.5 ? this too bad for him...I will pay him 2.5....

He just ignored that AM is only companies doing hardware selling and mining at same time over all exchange.
Why the price of AM could that expensive? some part is due to its exclusive.

If those private companies really going to succeed than it probably the time all of us who invested in BITCOIN stocks are dead.

 AM is the only hope for us..this why we estimate it so much.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:54:21 PM
If you really worry about AM , then you can sell your shares, that is your decision.

he says we're all stupid for valuing AM at current share prices, so I'm sure he'll sell us his shares for 1.5, right?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:53:33 PM
+1, This what I want to convinced, eventually this race will become the race of production cost and operating cost!
And assume that AM has 6 months experience and also more reserved fund, this give them more possibility to win the race~~
How many BTC that totally accumulated in their account??  should be a huge amount..
All those reserved BTC will give AM extra power to win this race when they need.. as will as the reputation of FriedCat, I think this name can essay financing lot of BTC to invest in his new project than any other new competitor over BITCOIN community.
 

yeah, their war chest is certainly bigger than any competitor's.

but, what interests me is their ability to produce large amount of hardware for several months ahead of any competitor.  That counts for a lot in this game.

And, of course, people like to compare KNC promises to what AM is delivering now.  Why, I wonder?  Are you telling me that these same people won't buy in if AM drops to 2.9 right now?  HA!
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:52:58 PM
I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...

Then why is everyone saying 25%?

If you really worry about AM , then you can sell your shares, that is your decision.

sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:49:55 PM
I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...

Then why is everyone saying 25%?

because that is what he delivered.  He tends to over-deliver.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:49:25 PM
I consider anything vaporware when it takes a year to receive your order.  Meanwhile, they promote 2 weeks.

Also, mining with your order in the meantime... doesn't add a lot of credibility.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 22, 2013, 03:47:06 PM
I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...

Then why is everyone saying 25%?
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:43:25 PM


So, it is conceivable that their profit remains pretty much the same, even with significant competition, mostly because they have a 6+month head start.



+1, This what I want to convinced, eventually this race will become the race of production cost and operating cost!
And assume that AM has 6 months experience and also more reserved fund, this give them more possibility to win the race~~
How many BTC that totally accumulated in their account??  should be a huge amount..
All those reserved BTC will give AM extra power to win this race when they need.. as will as the reputation of FriedCat, I think this name can essay financing lot of BTC to invest in his new project than any other new competitor over BITCOIN community.
 
sr. member
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:38:53 PM
EVERYONE is pussyfooting with their "safe, conservative" estimations. I say that ASICMiner shares are worth 52.5/share, can't beat that market cap  Tongue

Sold!

Edit: Escrow of your choice, I will even tip handsomely! Wink
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
June 22, 2013, 03:37:28 PM
EVERYONE is pussyfooting with their "safe, conservative" estimations. I say that ASICMiner shares are worth 52.5/share, can't beat that market cap  Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:35:16 PM
Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.
you are making assumptions that competitors will actually arrive with hardware and numbers to be able to make a dent in AM's sales.    Will this eventually happen ?  probably.  When  will this eventually happen? no one knows.

AM's sales? What sales? They had 10,000 USB miners to sell. That's all. Any other hardware they sell is second hand hardware they no longer want. As far as I know they've sold 150 blades and about 5000 USBs, which amounts to a couple of Th/s in total.

Will other companies eventually ship ASIC miners? They already are. In fact, BFL are now shipping 500 Gh/s Minirigs. Once they ship 10 of them, they will have shipped more hardware than AM.

To date, we've heard competitors announcing the release of their hardware every few weeks for almost 6 months. But nothing has arrived.  So, what makes you think that they will eventually be able to get it done?

Plenty of hardware from other companies has been shipped, so I've no idea why you are such statements which are quite obviously false. The competition is arriving as we speak.

And really, comparing vaporware with real hardware you can buy right now is complete nonsense.  Vaporware is cheap to produce, cheap to sell, and cheap to promote.  That doesn't make it any more viable, though.

Since when are BFL and Avalon vapourware? Perhaps you should tell all the people currently receiving their Avalon and BFL miners that they're simply delusional and that those products don't exist.



Again , shipped few units does not mean they are able to do mass production of its products.

I would argue all you assumption is too idealize about competitors... and too doubt with current market leader.

What I want to say is, if those companies are not trading in either BTCT and Bitfunder or other online exchange.

They were have low affect on share price of AM, Because We can't buy them and sharing their profit...

Last things, is if any things like you stated, then it will be tragedy for all of us invested in btc stock market.

Because private business are destroying the market of those public trade companies ,as well as AM and other mining entities.



sr. member
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:34:20 PM
Why has the share price gone up? Clearly because people are stupid.

Undeniable facts:
1) There's certainly no shortage of dribbling fools amongst AM investors.
2) Competition is coming, and will give AM a run for its money - no doubt!

But I am curious: how do you go from "competition is arriving" to "share is overpriced"?

Most investors are not complete idiots (well, at least some!), and have taken that into account - and in my opinion, the share price currently reflects that. So, could you show how you calculate a fair share price based on your assumptions?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:27:06 PM
Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?

Yeah, clearly for the rest of time, AICMINER will be the only company able to produce ASICs.  Roll Eyes

well, the competition have been promising production for quite some time, and each one has failed to deliver.  Why should we assume they will eventually succeed.  Isn't the likely case that they will continue to fail?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:25:00 PM
I'm not claiming they have poor performance or efficiency, I'm claiming they currently offer terrible value based on 2 BTC for a USB miner and 50 BTC for a blade.

I'll give you that point, their current prices are very high, because they are able to do so.  You are right on that.


Quote
I'm claiming that their new devices will not be able to have such huge profit margins due to the availability of competition and that will obviously cause a decrease in income from hardware sales.
yes, it will cause a decrease when compteition arrives, but as AM develops and produces devices, their cost of production should decrease, as well.  Think of it this way, as soon as a real competitor shows, AM will have produced 300+ TH of product.  With that sort of production, they have the opportunity to tweak and optimize production to reduce cost.

So, it is conceivable that their profit remains pretty much the same, even with significant competition, mostly because they have a 6+month head start.

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 03:24:51 PM


AM have a limited number of devices for sale. Previously they could charge 50 BTC per device. Soon they will only be able to charge 2 BTC per device. In order for profits to remain the same, AM would have to sell 25x more devices at the lower price. It can't do that though because those extra devices are needed for its mining operation. The obvious conclusion (and it is blatantly obvious if you just open your eyes and look at the situation objectively) is that income from selling hardware decreases.


Same mistake here ,again and over again.   You assumption is based on AM will selling same Blade all the time, and based on this assumption you assume the share price of AM will decrease.

NO! It makes no difference what hardware AM have for sale in the future. If it offers poor value compared to the competition, people will buy from the competition. It it does offer equal or better value than the competition, then income from hardware sales MUST decrease due to AM having a limited quantity for sale.

Let's me explain clear to you , KNC will probably ship its product by September  ,before that time did you agree that AM still has no comparative competitor in the market?  other things ,AM is focus on mining ,the majority of dividend is coming from mining. Since last week, the dividend come from hardware selling is already drooped. why its share price goes up? the reason is AM still the best assets produce positive value, so investors has no other opportunity, as long as there are no other assets could produce a annul yield above 20% without loss its principle.

Until people can buy miners off the shelf (order gets shipped within a couple of days of being placed), AM will have no competition. Why has the share price gone up? Clearly because people are stupid.

We should be clearly understand AM is not rely on Hardware sales as well as mining.
The correct assumption should be if AM loss its capability to remains its share in mining , then I agreed its price will be dump so quickly,

AM will not be able to to maintain it's stated share of the hash rate either. It can do so now only because of the lack of competition. The following companies already have or are due to have ASICs on the market.

ASICMINER
Avalon
BFL
KnC
BitFury
Bitgarden
AMC

All of those companies could easily match each others hash rate once they have a working ASIC and we're bound to see a few more in the future. I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.




People buying miners only when mining is profitable, if miners are so essay to get ,that mean it will be very low profit too do so.
Those companies you mentioned will absolutely has impact on total hash rate, but not affection on percentage of AM's hashrate of whole net work.
The reason is simple, the race of deploying new miners is depend on production cost.
let's see if AM could deploying one miners that cost less 1 USD and a operating cost that less 1 USD than others
This mean they will do their best to deploying more miners, Consider that Bitfuntain has lot of BTC to ensure them to doing this at any time.
This mean the more units being deployed by AM is more benefit received by AM, and Its competitors will soon realize that.
Too determine who will win this race, is based on products spec and cost associating to oeprating this products.

The share price is determine by 2 things, capability of generate profit and other opportunity.
The reason why AM's share price at 3BTC , some part is because its 40% annual yield and other part is Shareholder does not has other opportunity better this .

legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 22, 2013, 03:21:45 PM
Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.
you are making assumptions that competitors will actually arrive with hardware and numbers to be able to make a dent in AM's sales.    Will this eventually happen ?  probably.  When  will this eventually happen? no one knows.

AM's sales? What sales? They had 10,000 USB miners to sell. That's all. Any other hardware they sell is second hand hardware they no longer want. As far as I know they've sold 150 blades and about 5000 USBs, which amounts to a couple of Th/s in total.

Will other companies eventually ship ASIC miners? They already are. In fact, BFL are now shipping 500 Gh/s Minirigs. Once they ship 10 of them, they will have shipped more hardware than AM.

To date, we've heard competitors announcing the release of their hardware every few weeks for almost 6 months. But nothing has arrived.  So, what makes you think that they will eventually be able to get it done?

Plenty of hardware from other companies has been shipped, so I've no idea why you are such statements which are quite obviously false. The competition is arriving as we speak.

And really, comparing vaporware with real hardware you can buy right now is complete nonsense.  Vaporware is cheap to produce, cheap to sell, and cheap to promote.  That doesn't make it any more viable, though.

Since when are BFL and Avalon vapourware? Perhaps you should tell all the people currently receiving their Avalon and BFL miners that they're simply delusional and that those products don't exist.

legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 22, 2013, 03:10:06 PM
Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?

Yeah, clearly for the rest of time, AICMINER will be the only company able to produce ASICs.  Roll Eyes
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