I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.
funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...
Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 246. (Read 808768 times)
funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...
Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.
you are making assumptions that competitors will actually arrive with hardware and numbers to be able to make a dent in AM's sales. Will this eventually happen ? probably. When will this eventually happen? no one knows. To date, we've heard competitors announcing the release of their hardware every few weeks for almost 6 months. But nothing has arrived. So, what makes you think that they will eventually be able to get it done?And really, comparing vaporware with real hardware you can buy right now is complete nonsense. Vaporware is cheap to produce, cheap to sell, and cheap to promote. That doesn't make it any more viable, though.
You're missing the part where I think they will have better hardware, and while it will have to be priced better, it will also be still competitive. The selling of older hardware is just icing on the cake.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
I'm not missing that part at all. So what if they have new hardware? Please explain what effect you think such new hardware will have. The only effect I see it having is to reduce the power consumption, causing a slight increase in dividends due to less income being spent on power. That slight increase will not be enough to offset the decrease from hardware sales or network share.
What I find curious is that you assume AM's plans for next gen technology simply involves a die shrink. Yet with the same state of mind you accept a new company with no track record will take huge leaps in technological innovation while AM simply....rolls over and dies
What difference would it make if it's more than a die shrink? I'm not claiming they have poor performance or efficiency, I'm claiming they currently offer terrible value based on 2 BTC for a USB miner and 50 BTC for a blade. I'm claiming that their new devices will not be able to have such huge profit margins due to the availability of competition and that will obviously cause a decrease in income from hardware sales.
Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:
Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.
I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year. When will this competition arrive, again?
AM have a limited number of devices for sale. Previously they could charge 50 BTC per device. Soon they will only be able to charge 2 BTC per device. In order for profits to remain the same, AM would have to sell 25x more devices at the lower price. It can't do that though because those extra devices are needed for its mining operation. The obvious conclusion (and it is blatantly obvious if you just open your eyes and look at the situation objectively) is that income from selling hardware decreases.
Same mistake here ,again and over again. You assumption is based on AM will selling same Blade all the time, and based on this assumption you assume the share price of AM will decrease.
NO! It makes no difference what hardware AM have for sale in the future. If it offers poor value compared to the competition, people will buy from the competition. It it does offer equal or better value than the competition, then income from hardware sales MUST decrease due to AM having a limited quantity for sale.
Let's me explain clear to you , KNC will probably ship its product by September ,before that time did you agree that AM still has no comparative competitor in the market? other things ,AM is focus on mining ,the majority of dividend is coming from mining. Since last week, the dividend come from hardware selling is already drooped. why its share price goes up? the reason is AM still the best assets produce positive value, so investors has no other opportunity, as long as there are no other assets could produce a annul yield above 20% without loss its principle.
Until people can buy miners off the shelf (order gets shipped within a couple of days of being placed), AM will have no competition. Why has the share price gone up? Clearly because people are stupid.
We should be clearly understand AM is not rely on Hardware sales as well as mining.
The correct assumption should be if AM loss its capability to remains its share in mining , then I agreed its price will be dump so quickly,
The correct assumption should be if AM loss its capability to remains its share in mining , then I agreed its price will be dump so quickly,
AM will not be able to to maintain it's stated share of the hash rate either. It can do so now only because of the lack of competition. The following companies already have or are due to have ASICs on the market.
ASICMINER
Avalon
BFL
KnC
BitFury
Bitgarden
AMC
All of those companies could easily match each others hash rate once they have a working ASIC and we're bound to see a few more in the future. I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.
You're missing the part where I think they will have better hardware, and while it will have to be priced better, it will also be still competitive. The selling of older hardware is just icing on the cake.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
I'm not missing that part at all. So what if they have new hardware? Please explain what effect you think such new hardware will have. The only effect I see it having is to reduce the power consumption, causing a slight increase in dividends due to less income being spent on power. That slight increase will not be enough to offset the decrease from hardware sales or network share.
What I find curious is that you assume AM's plans for next gen technology simply involves a die shrink. Yet with the same state of mind you accept a new company with no track record will take huge leaps in technological innovation while AM simply....rolls over and dies
Of course, I know what you mean , you trying to say that AM would not change its price and its products standards?
The old blade is no more selling on the market, the only thing will make you assumption useful , is waiting util the new blade come out.
since before new blade come out , we do not know what will the spec be. It may be better than KNC ? if it does better than KNC , then the share price of AM will go up again at that time.
You can't post assumption like this if you did not know what exactly spec about the new blade.
It will caused missing lead investors, and seems not fair to AM.
[/quote]
No, that's the opposite of what I'm saying! AM will HAVE to change its pricing and products to be competitive otherwise it wouldn't sell any hardware at all.
It doesn't matter whether the new hardware is better than KnC or anyone else for that matter. All that matters is that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD. AM will have to sell its devices at a price which is competitive. If KnC is readily available that's 50 Mh/s for 1 USD. If BFL is readily available but KnC is not, then that'll be about 18 Mh/s per USD. Due to competition being available and AM having a limited supply of devices, profit from selling hardware can only go down.
Of course , sell hardware is one off deal ,you can't repeat it again and again with same product, if your competitor has improve their product's quality, but majority of AM's dividend is come from its mining process. Drooped of hardware selling actually does not has huge impact on its share price.(It does ,but not as important as the percentage of whole network's hashrate)
My point here is you posted this assertion too earlier, because you still do not know does KNC has the ability to delivery the products as they promised, there are possibility they could be next BFL.
We can't tell whether KNC is next AM or BFL util September, We can't tell whether AM will invented worse or better product than KNC ,util FC posted out the new spec of the Blade.
Before that time, every assumption that taken absolute idealize would be same pointless.
I really do not like this comparison , because it ignored the basic truth which use AM today's product to compare with some 6 months later products.
I had post before, AM is company manufacture in China, you should understand that the cost of producing electronic products is much much lower than anywhere else in the world also that the possibility to speed put those products into mass production.
As FriedCat announced it will delivery better products in Oct this year and it will be much better than anything else.
You are trying to believe a new entry with sample products has more capability than current leader?
Anyone has the knowledge in integrated circuit manufacturing will know that the difference between 110NM standards and 28NM standards isn't technology difference, it different in the production equipment which involved to produce it.
You are trying to see that Chinese integrated circuit manufacturing are not capable to produce chips at 28NM standard?
I think this totally nonsense, that IPOD /IPHONE are manufactured in the same province where AM operated.
Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.
[/quote]
Of course, I know what you mean , you trying to say that AM would not change its price and its products standards?
The old blade is no more selling on the market, the only thing will make you assumption useful , is waiting util the new blade come out.
since before new blade come out , we do not know what will the spec be. It may be better than KNC ? if it does better than KNC , then the share price of AM will go up again at that time.
You can't post assumption like this if you did not know what exactly spec about the new blade.
It will caused missing lead investors, and seems not fair to AM.
[/quote]
No, that's the opposite of what I'm saying! AM will HAVE to change its pricing and products to be competitive otherwise it wouldn't sell any hardware at all.
It doesn't matter whether the new hardware is better than KnC or anyone else for that matter. All that matters is that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD. AM will have to sell its devices at a price which is competitive. If KnC is readily available that's 50 Mh/s for 1 USD. If BFL is readily available but KnC is not, then that'll be about 18 Mh/s per USD. Due to competition being available and AM having a limited supply of devices, profit from selling hardware can only go down.
AM have a limited number of devices for sale
They do??? If their production capabilities are friedcat and his friends puting those thing together by hand then i guess you are right
AM have a limited number of devices for sale. Previously they could charge 50 BTC per device. Soon they will only be able to charge 2 BTC per device. In order for profits to remain the same, AM would have to sell 25x more devices at the lower price. It can't do that though because those extra devices are needed for its mining operation. The obvious conclusion (and it is blatantly obvious if you just open your eyes and look at the situation objectively) is that income from selling hardware decreases.
Same mistake here ,again and over again. You assumption is based on AM will selling same Blade all the time, and based on this assumption you assume the share price of AM will decrease.
Let's me explain clear to you , KNC will probably ships its product by September and unknow how many they could produce by that day. may be 1 or 2 just like BFL. ,before that time did you agree that AM still has no comparative competitor in the market? other things ,AM is focus on mining ,the majority of dividend is coming from mining. Since last week, the dividend come from hardware selling is already drooped. why its share price goes up? the reason is AM still the best assets produce positive value, so investors has no other opportunity, as long as there are no other assets could produce a annul yield above 20% without loss its principle.
We should be clearly understand AM is not rely on Hardware sales as well as mining.
The correct assumption should be if AM loss its capability to remains its share in mining , then I agreed its price will be dump so quickly, So far , I didn't see any clue shows AM will loss its mining share, and considering of the low cost of produce device to mining and low cost of electricity in China, this ensure its potential ability to catch up with the increasing of mining difficulty.
Other wrong point in your assumption is , your use old blade spec to compare with something come out six month later, as AM is currently being R&D in its new blade and its wafer. you argument is trying to see that AM has not capable to provides similar products as KNC.
This assumption is fully non-sense, I think it will be better if you wait util FC release the spec of new blade then posted a comparison at that time will be more realistic.
I agree with this part:
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
More compentition doesnt necesary lead to reduced hardware profits for ASICminer..
More competition does mean reduced hardware profits for AM. You clearly haven't thought this through.
You asume that there wont be enough demand to buy every competitive product that comes out
its like you say if AM sold 1000 blades then the market is 1000 minners a pop i think the demand was much larger than what AM could cover and could absorve more mners than were actualy sold...
its like you say if AM sold 1000 blades then the market is 1000 minners a pop i think the demand was much larger than what AM could cover and could absorve more mners than were actualy sold...
No, I'm not assuming that at all. I'm assuming that they sell all the hardware they have for sale (which is limited in number), but that they simply can't sell it at 2 Mh/s per USD because the competition is offering 50 Mh/s per USD. So, instead of selling a Blade for 50 BTC, they will sell for 2 BTC instead. That is what will cause the decrease in hardware sales.
A compettive market with lower prices and easier revenuew of buying Miners would drive the sales way up for AM too...
It would if AM actually sold miners, but they don't. The only product AM currently sell is the USB miner which is just an expensive gimmick. They occasionally sell off their second hand hardware which they no longer want. The hardware they have for sale is very limited in quantity. They can't just sell all the hardware they have or they would have nothing left to mine with. AM need the hardware themselves.
plus you asume that the cost of production of the second batch is the same as the first i would argue that the first batch had to cover a lot or development costs that the second one will not have thus giving a larger profit margin...
No reduction in development costs is going to make up for the 25x decrease in profit from selling hardware.
In all that i am not sure that we have reached peak profits from hardware sales yet even if there is lots of competition in the future...
Then you clearly don't understand the situation. Let me try to make it clearer for you, with a simple example.
AM have a limited number of devices for sale. Previously they could charge 50 BTC per device. Soon they will only be able to charge 2 BTC per device. In order for profits to remain the same, AM would have to sell 25x more devices at the lower price. It can't do that though because those extra devices are needed for its mining operation. The obvious conclusion (and it is blatantly obvious if you just open your eyes and look at the situation objectively) is that income from selling hardware decreases.
I really do not like this comparison , because it ignored the basic truth which use AM today's product to compare with some 6 months later products.
I had post before, AM is company manufacture in China, you should understand that the cost of producing electronic products is much much lower than anywhere else in the world also that the possibility to speed put those products into mass production.
As FriedCat announced it will delivery better products in Oct this year and it will be much better than anything else.
You are trying to believe a new entry with sample products has more capability than current leader?
Anyone has the knowledge in integrated circuit manufacturing will know that the difference between 110NM standards and 28NM standards isn't technology difference, it different in the production equipment which involved to produce it.
You are trying to see that Chinese integrated circuit manufacturing are not capable to produce chips at 28NM standard?
I think this totally nonsense, that IPOD /IPHONE are manufactured in the same province where AM operated.
[/quote]
Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.
[/quote]
Of course, I know what you mean , you trying to say that AM would not change its price and its products standards?
The old blade is no more selling on the market, the only thing will make you assumption useful , is waiting util the new blade come out.
since before new blade come out , we do not know what will the spec be. It may be better than KNC ? if it does better than KNC , then the share price of AM will go up again at that time.
You can't post assumption like this if you did not know what exactly spec about the new blade.
It will caused missing lead investors, and seems not fair to AM.
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.
Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.
LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:
AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD
KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.
Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.
LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:
AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD
KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.
Where can I get a KNC Jupiter? I want to start mining with it tomorrow. I have the cash right now.
Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:
Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.
No, I couldn't be arsed to pay attention to what you said when you compared old ASICMINER hardware (early 2013) with vaporware, scheduled to be launched at end of year. Apples and ... not even oranges.
ASICMINER priced their stuff to sell. And it has. That is perfectly normal business. Its not outrageous prices because if it was, nobody would have bought the things. Think before you type.
Outrageous is announcing vaporware many months in advance and watching gullible people flock to pre-order it because the specs are way ahead of today's standards. Of course stuff delivered in 6 months time will be much much better. That goes without saying. That's if they deliver.
At least ASICMINER have a history of delivering stuff, and maintaining a high % of the total network hashing power.
Competition is to be expected because its a profitable business. Whether the competition can live with the team first to market remains to be seen.
No need to cry and waffle on about irrelevancies because I stated a fact. AM hardware has been vastly overpriced due to not having any competition. With competition available it won't be able to charge such outrageous prices. And seriously, if you think 2 BTC for a USB miner is not insane, then you are insane.
Who cares if AM are bringing out 2nd generation miners. If they want to sell such hardware, it'll also have to be priced competitively, so closer to 50 Mh/s per USD than 2 Mh/s per USD. For the mining operation, all those new chips will do is decrease the power consumption, which should cause a very slight increase in dividends due to lower power costs. It won't be anywhere near enough to offset the decrease in income from hardware sales, nor the decrease in income due to a decrease in the share of the network hash rate.
Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.
That's what I'm saying! AM has had a monopoly so far, so could charge outrageous prices. With the incoming competition, AM's prices will have to be competitive or people will simply go with the competition. With AM having limited hardware for sale, the only possible result is a decrease in income from hardware sales.
I agree with this part:
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
I'm not saying that it won't be able to compete once the competition turns up. I'm saying that it simply won't be able to make as much money as it does now.
Then we agree on that point. What makes you think the possibility of the scenario you describe is not already priced in?
As I see it, if that scenario was not already priced in to some degree, the share price would be much, much higher.
You're missing the part where I think they will have better hardware, and while it will have to be priced better, it will also be still competitive. The selling of older hardware is just icing on the cake.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
I'm not missing that part at all. So what if they have new hardware? Please explain what effect you think such new hardware will have. The only effect I see it having is to reduce the power consumption, causing a slight increase in dividends due to less income being spent on power. That slight increase will not be enough to offset the decrease from hardware sales or network share.
KNC is Sweden company ,AM is Chinese company~~~
The possibility of KNC to turning its products into mass production is far below than AM as will as the cost associating to produce its product.
To rent a date center in China is much much cheaper than to rent a date center in Sweden.
Someone think KNC is has super technology advance than AM, 28NM standards isn't a superior technology, I think a lot number of manufactures in China is capable to producing electronic products at this standards. AM is operated in the same province where IPOD/IPHONE been manufactured, this province is famous to manufacturing electronic products in China.
about mining, the electric cost is far lower than European countries, this mean AM can mining at a cost without losing ,but others may loss.
It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.
Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.
LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:
AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD
KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.
Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.
LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:
AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD
KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.
I really do not like this comparison , because it ignored the basic truth which use AM today's product to compare with some 6 months later products.
I had post before, AM is company manufacture in China, you should understand that the cost of producing electronic products is much much lower than anywhere else in the world also that the possibility to speed put those products into mass production.
As FriedCat announced it will delivery better products in Oct this year and it will be much better than anything else.
You are trying to believe a new entry with sample products has more capability than current leader?
Anyone has the knowledge in integrated circuit manufacturing will know that the difference between 110NM standards and 28NM standards isn't technology difference, it different in the production equipment which involved to produce it.
You are trying to see that Chinese integrated circuit manufacturing are not capable to produce chips at 28NM standard?
I think this totally nonsense, that IPOD /IPHONE are manufactured in the same province where AM operated.
Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.
wow, slipped back down to 3 over night. Any reason for that?
I just mentioned it a few posts above this one.
Woke up to some trade confirmations that got me in on TAT at .03 around 145AM-245AM ET, looks like someone sold it down to about .0292. There weren't a ton of bids last night, so I wasn't too surprised to see it dip down. It was probably only around 100-125 total volume.
Saw BTC-TC before it went totally down this morning and the price looked liked it was around .0313 ASK, with significant BID pressure at .0304 - between 400-700 qty bid at that price.
2:25 AM
Security: TAT.ASICMINER
Shares: 15 @ 0.02930000 BTC
Total Paid: 0.440379 BTC
=)
I agree with this part:
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
I'm not saying that it won't be able to compete once the competition turns up. I'm saying that it simply won't be able to make as much money as it does now.
You're missing the part where I think they will have better hardware, and while it will have to be priced better, it will also be still competitive. The selling of older hardware is just icing on the cake.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.
I'm not missing that part at all. So what if they have new hardware? Please explain what effect you think such new hardware will have. The only effect I see it having is to reduce the power consumption, causing a slight increase in dividends due to less income being spent on power. That slight increase will not be enough to offset the decrease from hardware sales or network share.
I agree with this part:
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
However, I believe most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
So the current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
More compentition doesnt necesary lead to reduced hardware profits for ASICminer..
You asume that there wont be enough demand to buy every competitive product that comes out
its like you say if AM sold 1000 blades then the market is 1000 minners a pop i think the demand was much larger than what AM could cover and could absorve more mners than were actualy sold...
A competative market with lower prices and easier revenuew of buying Miners would drive the sales way up for AM too...
plus you asume that the cost of production of the second batch is the same as the first i would argue that the first batch had to cover a lot or development costs that the second one will not have thus giving a larger profit margin...
In all that i am not sure that we have reached peak profits from hardware sales yet even if there is lots of competition in the future...
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