Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 33. (Read 808847 times)

Where is this competition you speak of?

$56,000,000 is not much considering the company just doubled its assets in a month (now ~$8,000,000).

AM has already peaked. Way to much competition. Its continually falling share price reflects that. At $140 a share (current price), I don't believe this business is worth $56,000,000. Its hard to believe that this business was valued in the hundreds of millions just a few weeks ago. IMO its threshold is .25 BTC a share, and thats assuming BTC doesn't explode in value.

Up from 12-14K in Nov - Dec, IIRC.  Becoming a notable proportion of outstanding shares...

where can I find AM charts?

the havelock ones are insufficient I think..

If they drop to .1 I think they are a decent buy...Might even buy a few at that price.

For those keeping track, there are now a total of 28,166 AM shares on Havelock, up from 27,320 on May 26th (24,911 shares to back AM1 and 3255 to back AM100).

I'm not isn't the mining address? https://www.biteasy.com/blockchain/addresses/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i

Theres no coins in that address atm.

   Its the mining that was the foundation for the dividends.  Through the fall and into winter, when there was nothing to sell, dividends shrunk predictably, but it was always something.  Then gen 2 was dropped, and there was a big lag updating centers and franchisees to gen 3.  With some luck, the transition to gen 4 and/or 5 will take place at a point of diminishing returns, on a rolling basis rather than after the dust settles on zero returns.  Experience is bound to make it smoother as we progress, and mining should be back on line soon.  Other companies are shipping products with AM chips, surely we are as far along on in house products, and ready to throw the switch 
  So who's expecting a little something from mining revenue on Wednessday? 

behold drunken analysis ahead (possibly flawed):

imo the biggest problem is the change of main revenue in btc last year to fiat now during a rising bull market.
Last year the advantage was that AM devices were sold directly in btc and on top the farm was mining along at a decent rate.

so if AM isn't instantly converting shareholder's part of profit to btc it's a loosing game in the current phase,
because the delayed payout of divs (which are constantly shrinking this way) will hardly cover the recent loss in sharevalue esp. if rising btcvalue gets priced in. (i hope this makes sense  )

even if every shareholder gets the somewhere mentioned 0,1-0,15 BTC divs for sales of gen3 this would represent at minimum a payout of 26mio$/40.000BTC (btc@650) for 400.000 shares atm (of which divs for bitfountain's part will probably drip back into AM to some extent).
i can't imagine such a big part of profits is payed out esp. not with the rising competition and a possible bubble phase knocking at the door.
now there are also costs for gen4 development...i picked up a number around at least 4-5 mio for 28nm on the forum and a lot of the other companies are already manufacturing that size.

ergo the mining aspect seems really important to balance out lack of btc income and bridge the gap between gen3 and gen4.
i decided to stand on the sideline and watch closely as long as i don't see the rollout schedule for the datacenters and updates on the magical containers.

so far friedcat is selling chips like a champ and expanded the circle of contractors (rockminer, xbtec et.al.) while the datacenters - compared to last year - degraded more to a nice gimmick of the company.
don't get me wrong i still see huge potential in AsicMiner it feels more to me like the mining cycle isn't perfectly blending in with the bubble cycle this time. (or did it match similarly during april 13 bubble?)


disclaimer: panicsold all shares but one  , recent btc investment cut in half. If i price in some overvalued shares bought for 1-3btc, i burned around 9 coins holding AM shares since last summer
and the divs until now were a joke compared to trading profits with my gambling stash. So much for longterm investment...funnily i haven't lost too much in terms of original fiat investment.


...well i learned another lesson of btc economics and got a nice shirt out of it as a reminder instead of loosing one.   (thanks to nubbins at this point, several washings and the print is still in mint condition - great quality!)


let's see what the cheshire friedcat is cooking for the future...

Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen again.  I should have emphasized the "if".

I'm actually more interested in the dividends and how long it will take to break even in dividend payments.  Production costs will be a big part of determining which ASIC manufacturers sink or swim and I don't think anyone can beat AM's production costs.

One can always dream although I think raking in 10 times profits seems more than reasonable from these levels
Let alone 20

never say never. and even more in bitcoinland. 

While I applaud your enthusiasm, I cannot foresee the share price hitting 4+ BTC ever again with the exchange rate and increased competition. Would be nice though, wouldn't it?

least insanity in this thread 

If I woke up tomorrow and shares were selling for 4 BTC, I would sell over half of my shares.

Let's assume all upcoming news are great. At what point would you dump like share price’s 4 again?
 

FC has under promised and over delivered in the past. Let's see what transpires in the next few weeks as it could have a dramatic impact on the share price.

Well, we're at Block 303858    now, so we're just about halfway done with the 25 BTC block reward and on track to drop to a block reward of 12.5 BTC sometime in early 2016 or late 2015.  That comes to 2,903,550 BTC (116,142 blocks x 25 BTC) up for grabs until then.

Over there in main thread everybody is talking only about chips sales, but AM also planned to mine - 20PH, with francising. I don't think that changed, just some time is needed to build the hardware and populate farms.
If started in a month or two, 20PH of efficient and cheap hardware, on cheap electricity, can still mine... what? 60'000, 80'000 btc?

no