I look at investing in AM to be somewhat similar to buying mining hardware.
When someone buys mining hardware they are typically trying to earn a return. That is, for every bitcoin that is spent on hardware, power, taxes, etc., they hope to mine it all back and then some. If their BTC mining revenues exceed their expenses, then they are mining at a profit. If their expenses exceed their revenues, then they are mining at a loss. If they are mining at a loss they would be better off financially just holding BTC. Also, once a piece of hardware is no longer profitable, they don't expect to sell the hardware for more than what they initially paid for it. Similarly, once I've owned a share of AM for a few years, I don't expect to be able to sell it for more than what I initially paid for it.
With AM, instead of speculating on expected ROI in BTC from mining, I'm speculating on expected ROI in BTC from dividends. If I buy a share of AM for .2 BTC today, I'm hoping to make all of that back and then some at some point in the next few years in dividends. I expect the AM share price and profits (measured in BTC) to go down as block rewards are reduced, just as those operating mining hardware expect their BTC earnings to go down when block rewards are reduced.
When someone buys mining hardware they are typically trying to earn a return. That is, for every bitcoin that is spent on hardware, power, taxes, etc., they hope to mine it all back and then some. If their BTC mining revenues exceed their expenses, then they are mining at a profit. If their expenses exceed their revenues, then they are mining at a loss. If they are mining at a loss they would be better off financially just holding BTC. Also, once a piece of hardware is no longer profitable, they don't expect to sell the hardware for more than what they initially paid for it. Similarly, once I've owned a share of AM for a few years, I don't expect to be able to sell it for more than what I initially paid for it.
With AM, instead of speculating on expected ROI in BTC from mining, I'm speculating on expected ROI in BTC from dividends. If I buy a share of AM for .2 BTC today, I'm hoping to make all of that back and then some at some point in the next few years in dividends. I expect the AM share price and profits (measured in BTC) to go down as block rewards are reduced, just as those operating mining hardware expect their BTC earnings to go down when block rewards are reduced.
but so far i can't imagine that payed out dividends would sufficiently compensate for sinking share price compared to simple holding (esp. not after halfing and with the ongoing exponential rise of btcvalue) .
this was the case if you've bought in the beginning on IPO, now i really don't see any ground for this.
in the case that the open source project for AM chips soars heavily, gen3 in kombo with mining and gen4 could perhaps return current share price until roughly spring 2016?
i wonder if AM will again have a starving phase of low to no divs until sellout of gen 4, because that is one of my main concerns.
just got burned so hard holding shares during the last bubble, i always see it from trader's perspective now how to get the most coins with the least risk.
then the better strategy would be to buy shares during times of regular flow of dividends and steady btc value and sell without a loss as soon as it bubbles.
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