but so far i can't imagine that payed out dividends would sufficiently compensate for sinking share price compared to simple holding (esp. not after halfing and with the ongoing exponential rise of btcvalue) .
You're referring to future dividends, right? I agree that future dividends aren't going to lead to ROI anytime soon, if ever, for the shares that sold at 4 or 5 BTC. That's why I don't think the price will reach that high again. Four or five years seems to be the most that AM shareholders are willing to wait for an ROI, which would equate to a dividend yield of 25% or 20%. I think the people that were buying at those prices thought the dividends would just steadily keep getting paid at close to last summer's level until the block reward halved. I certainly didn't expect to see dividends slow down to a trickle and then disappear completely.
this was the case if you've bought in the beginning on IPO, now i really don't see any ground for this.
This will also be the case if I buy a share now for .2 BTC and then .4 BTC are paid in dividends over the course of the next year.
in the case that the open source project for AM chips soars heavily, gen3 in kombo with mining and gen4 could perhaps return current share price until roughly spring 2016?
I'm not sure how long it will take to reach ROI via dividends at current share price. All I can do is speculate like everyone else. Once dividends start getting paid again and we hear more from friedcat, we should have a better idea of what to expect.
i wonder if AM will again have a starving phase of low to no divs until sellout of gen 4, because that is one of my main concerns.
If we have another phase of disappearing dividends and shrinking share price, I'll consider reinvesting more dividends and picking up cheap shares. He's said that he plans to produce Gen4 and Gen5 chips, so it sounds like he's going to keep at this for a few more years at least.
just got burned so hard holding shares during the last bubble, i always see it from trader's perspective now how to get the most coins with the least risk.
So, it's time to burn someone else, huh? Just waiting for another bubble and another sucker to come along and dump those overvalued shares in his lap? I don't know if that opportunity is going to arise, but if it does I'll sell some shares too. I think there's going to be a lot of selling pressure in the future from people in your shoes that are trying to recover their losses. We'll just have to wait and see.
then the better strategy would be to buy shares during times of regular flow of dividends and steady btc value and sell without a loss as soon as it bubbles.
Different strokes for different folks. I'm not a trader. I prefer to invest for the long term, but would sell some of the shares that I've held for over a year if another bubble forms, but I'm not holding my breath. (I pay a lower tax rate on long-term capital gains--shares that are held for over a year.)