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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 45. (Read 808757 times)

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
January 21, 2014, 12:44:22 AM
144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.
Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

Very bullish, and as a shareholder, I share the dream. But until we see a working chip, its just a dream.
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
January 21, 2014, 12:17:48 AM
144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.
Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).
newbie
Activity: 23
Merit: 0
January 20, 2014, 10:58:57 PM
144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.
newbie
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
January 20, 2014, 09:49:01 PM
If AM produces the most energy efficient chips (@0.2 watts/ghs) and outhashes everybody, how many Btcs will AM be able to theoretically mine in say one year?  Give me a min and a max.

(Until the next reward halving)
25 BTC per block
144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

If AM maintains an average of 10% of the hashrate:
131400 BTC mined by AM
0.3285 BTC per share


I'd say min would be 2.5%, max would be 25% so between 0.082125 BTC and 0.82125 BTC per share

And this doesn't count in hardware sales or anything like that
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
January 20, 2014, 09:43:32 PM
So guys is this a good time to buy some shares?

its kinda hard to tell now since it recently surged from 0,25 to 0,7. i wouldnt expect for the price to break 0,85 after announcement which could also be good/bad/late. its nearly impossible for its price to break 1BTC considering that the divs wont go back to previous highs (since there wont be no improvement of AM's hashrate and there is almost nothing left to sell...). but hey... never say never uh... Wink


If AM produces the most energy efficient chips (@0.2 watts/ghs) and outhashes everybody, how many Btcs will AM be able to theoretically mine in say one year?  Give me a min and a max.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
January 20, 2014, 02:20:34 PM
So guys is this a good time to buy some shares?

its kinda hard to tell now since it recently surged from 0,25 to 0,7. i wouldnt expect for the price to break 0,85 after announcement which could also be good/bad/late. its nearly impossible for its price to break 1BTC considering that the divs wont go back to previous highs (since there wont be no improvement of AM's hashrate and there is almost nothing left to sell...). but hey... never say never uh... Wink

hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
January 20, 2014, 02:18:56 PM
Actually a lot of people are speculating on big hashrate coming from china as from last 1-2 days

Source?

look at the unknown in blockchain.info

but given tape out is on 20th, even if it's successful and ahead of schedule, it can't be ready for mass deployment yet.
Don't look at blockchain.info for hashrate distribution, please. Better look at http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2014/01/january-19th-2014-weekly-pool-and.html
Almost all blocks accounted for. Big 'unknown' portion is 'Discus Fish' pool, at 13%. 3rd pool now!
sr. member
Activity: 560
Merit: 251
Tic.eth
January 20, 2014, 02:11:07 PM
So guys is this a good time to buy some shares?
legendary
Activity: 817
Merit: 1000
January 20, 2014, 02:04:16 PM
Actually a lot of people are speculating on big hashrate coming from china as from last 1-2 days

Source?

look at the unknown in blockchain.info

but given tape out is on 20th, even if it's successful and ahead of schedule, it can't be ready for mass deployment yet.

The unknown is most likely GHash silently controlling 51%.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
January 20, 2014, 02:02:28 PM
Actually a lot of people are speculating on big hashrate coming from china as from last 1-2 days

Source?

look at the unknown in blockchain.info

but given tape out is on 20th, even if it's successful and ahead of schedule, it can't be ready for mass deployment yet.
newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
January 20, 2014, 01:37:43 PM
Actually a lot of people are speculating on big hashrate coming from china as from last 1-2 days

Source?
hero member
Activity: 656
Merit: 500
January 20, 2014, 01:03:44 PM
lol people buying 100AM shares on havelock at 0,7.... this means this guy is aiming at least another significant jump in price... OMFG share price back to 4TBC?!! Cheesy

Risky..but 1 BTC is a possibility..and that's a 30% jump. Especially if they know something everyone else doesn't..

imo nobody knows nothing. its just speculation and anticipation of FC's scheduled announcement. but we already know what he is going to say: "sry for being late... everything fine... some delays may occur.. blabla..." and the price is going to stay between 0,5 and 0,6 level until new annoucement or launching of the mining containers.

Actually a lot of people are speculating on big hashrate coming from china as from last 1-2 days
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
January 20, 2014, 12:58:23 PM
lol people buying 100AM shares on havelock at 0,7.... this means this guy is aiming at least another significant jump in price... OMFG share price back to 4TBC?!! Cheesy

Risky..but 1 BTC is a possibility..and that's a 30% jump. Especially if they know something everyone else doesn't..

imo nobody knows nothing. its just speculation and anticipation of FC's scheduled announcement. but we already know what he is going to say: "sry for being late... everything fine... some delays may occur.. blabla..." and the price is going to stay between 0,5 and 0,6 level until new annoucement or launching of the mining containers.
sr. member
Activity: 302
Merit: 250
January 20, 2014, 12:49:27 PM
lol people buying 100AM shares on havelock at 0,7.... this means this guy is aiming at least another significant jump in price... OMFG share price back to 4TBC?!! Cheesy

Risky..but 1 BTC is a possibility..and that's a 30% jump. Especially if they know something everyone else doesn't..
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 1000
Fica Tranquilo
January 20, 2014, 10:43:09 AM
Don't forget there are always more people, besides Friedcat, involved in this process.
Can always be that someone else leaked some information to someone.

At least it is a signal that the tapeout is going fine!
Now we wait untill the offical confirmation. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
January 20, 2014, 11:38:13 AM
lol people buying 100AM shares on havelock at 0,7.... this means this guy is aiming at least another significant jump in price... OMFG share price back to 4TBC?!! Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 837
Merit: 1000
January 20, 2014, 10:55:16 AM
Official confirmation will jump the price above 1BTC
hero member
Activity: 752
Merit: 500
bitcoin hodler
January 20, 2014, 10:36:56 AM
jeee the price per share is so high right now.. wonder what will happen as soon as FC say something  Undecided

he probably has said something - just not on this forum yet  Wink

As always we are the last to find out the news Smiley

seems like it. This is wrong though. I don't like that there is always much more information on Chinese forums than here. I thought bitcointalk.org forum was official channel of AM communication.
hero member
Activity: 837
Merit: 1000
January 20, 2014, 10:34:26 AM
jeee the price per share is so high right now.. wonder what will happen as soon as FC say something  Undecided

he probably has said something - just not on this forum yet  Wink

As always we are the last to find out the news Smiley
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
January 20, 2014, 08:45:50 AM
jeee the price per share is so high right now.. wonder what will happen as soon as FC say something  Undecided

he probably has said something - just not on this forum yet  Wink
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