Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 49. (Read 808847 times)

Maybe a surprise premature tape-out that was successful. That would be sweet!
And glad I got at least a few shares sub 0.3....

+1

The first step in a bull movement in a stock is to advertise the fact that there is a bull movement on. Sounds silly, doesn't it? Well, think a moment. It isn't as silly as it
sounded, is it? The most effective way to advertise what, in effect, are your honourable intentions is to make the stock active and strong. After all is said and done, the greatest publicity agent in the wide world is the ticker, and by far the best advertising medium is the tape. I do not need to put out any literature for my clients. I do not have to inform the daily press as to the value of the stock or to work the financial reviews for notices about the company's prospects. Neither do I have to get a following. I accomplish all these highly desirable things by merely making the stock active. When there is activity there is a synchronous demand for explanations; and that means, of course, that the necessary reason for publication supply themselves without the slightest aid from me.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/large/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator_Jesse_Livermore.pdf P.195

Is there a bull movement on? :p

Somebody knows something. Shares are getting gobbled up on Havelock on no news and crappy dividends. If you were waiting for the prices to decline further you may have waited just a little too long.

In the parlance of my generation: "Blue Horseshoe loves ASICminer".

After all, this is the AM Speculation Thread... 

Where do you get this information, or at least, what information do you have on "Gen 3" which leads you do say it will... Oh wait, you're pulling this out of your ass. 

Really?

How about skipping Gen 3 because Gen 4 looks more promising? Where is the logic there, especially considering the 6 months gap between the generations with nothing to fill the gap?

Exactly. Gen2 was skipped because gen3 looked more promising. The only reason it was deemed unsatisfactory performance was because it was compared to gen3.

It is not like somewhere along the design process gen2 completely failed. I believe delays are what made gen2 impractical and it is much more likely that delays happen with gen3 than design failure.

I found this:




I'm surprised you are asking as not too long ago you said this:

Source?

Yes, fair enough.

But look at what happened to BFL, Avalon, Cointera, HashFast, ActM, and even AsicMiner. Everyone's roadmap was quite different to what they initially planned. The chances of the chip design to under perform or having a big delay is quite likely.

Gen 2 was skipped/cancelled due to the poor performance. Have a look back at friedcat's posts.

If gen 3 is lower cost to run it won't matter when it comes out. It will simply outhash everything out there and make older chips obsolete.

Could be 2 months till a working product after tape-out. Also I thought gen2 was skipped because gen3 looked so much more promising. Knc is probably the biggest competitor and they will probably ship at the end of q2.

Seems like a lot of people are assuming that the Gen 3 will be a success.

It is still too early to make such a call considering that the Gen 2 had to be cancelled due to the under performing chip design.

Even if the Gen 3 chip does perform, there are still 3-4 months before they are implemented in functional miners, and that is a very long time in the Bitcoin world.

The discussion is getting interesting again, with the development and growth potential in AM owning 1/400000 of the next google is a real possibility and the company is in a great position to do so as rival pointed out.

On the other hand I see people focused on the Yield now and the prices of Bitcoin in the short run, both sides have a point and I feel we are nearing a crux point where either the price of Bitcoin will rise faster than the value of an AM share, or we see the opposite and it becomes a safe-haven to keep bitcoins in, during chaotic price rises due to its adoption and the rapid rises and AM with the hash power needed to back the BTC price regardless of the Fiat Rate.

Extending into that we are starting to see investors valuing AM as a great investment to preserve the bitcoins they have as they are predicted to provide a steady stream of dividends into the future, with future batches sustaining their mining presence Gen 3 presently with more batches afterwards and from their previous mining operations they have large capital reserves that can be relied upon to maintain and develop their network presence, seen through their network strategy and outlook.

The crux is the electrical cost per unit we are seeing a significant rise in the mining power and efficient units are becoming increasingly important due to decreasing margins, as a result it makes sense to have batches of low cost/energy hashing units than high end ones with high energy costs for long term mining.

With batches being replaced and resold when difficulty rises mining buildings come in. This is consistent with the trend from hobby miners to commercial industrial mining and they are preparing their cards to play that market. Of course the timing is still critical as new hash enters the market it also increases the difficulty, so releasing the hash to a profitable level requires a low energy cost, as the additional hash from their units and competitors increases the overall difficulty.

In all this is going to be an interesting year.

Strong demand for 'cheap' shares before potentially positive tape-out news. People feel the shares won't go any lower...

Ahh.. yes. Thank you. So clear now. Someday I will come up with grand mathematical proofs of my own now to make grand predictions.

BTW, seen AM price on Havelock lately? I just cannot figure out why that sucker is going in the wrong direction.

You are showing your reading comprehension problems again. It was dmcdad that brought up the 5% network share. I pointed out that would use 12.5 Ph/s out of AM's 20 Ph/s (maximum) leaving 7.5 Ph/s available. I then demonstrated that AM would require 9.1 Ph/s in order to maintain 5% making it physically impossible to maintain 5% for even 3 rounds.

I'm sorry if such basic maths is too difficult for you to follow. Maybe it will cheer you up to know that in reality, AM will sell a good proportion of that hash rate, probably making it impossible to even gain 5% in the first place.

I feel really sorry for people who think that 9.1 Ph/s is less than 7.5 Ph/s.