Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 51. (Read 808905 times)

Do you really think 268PH is reasonable by May?
Doesn't sound reasonable to me based on manufacturers delivering hardware.

We will also be beyond "Prosumer" level devices by that time and into "commercial" or "industrial" designs and power requirements. The number of hobbyist customers will be much less and the number of businesses/industrial miners will grow.

It's one thing to mine at a small loss as a hobbyist, but I don't believe business models will not allow for this loss leading behaviour on such a large scale. Large capital investments in more and more powerful hardware demands annual returns, not losses.

 

There will be over 1.3 million BTC mined over the 12 month period. Actually more since blocks will be found on average every 8 to 9 minutes instead of every 10 minutes. Consumer mining companies thus far have been able to sell hardware at a higher profit than self mining (more profit in selling shovels, etc.), but profit margins will be decreasing. So let's leave 1.3 million BTC as the profit amount.

If AM produces <0.2W per G and <0.2$ per G on wafer cost then what share of the 1.3 million BTC pie do you think they will get? Multiply that percentage by 1.3 mil BTC / 400,000 and you get your dividend amount from AM. Say AM captures 5% of the mining profits, that will be 0.1625 BTC, or a 54% total dividend at a share price of 0.30 BTC. If they capture 12% of the mining profits, then that is a 130% dividend.

Can AM really capture 5%+ of the profit over a 12 month period? Maybe, maybe not. But I think if their gen 3 showing meets their goals then they will have the correct trajectory to, at least for the first few months, capture higher than that. No way the share price is going to stay around 0.3 BTC if that happens.

What maths lead you to believe that?


No, I just understand that AM cannot compete against everyone else combined. The overall result of that is a declining network share, regardless of the fact that the hash rate might actually be increasing.

Years? If AM pulls through with <0.2W per G and <0.2$ per G on wafer cost in the next few months (and if that is competitive with other companies, which I think it will be) then share price will be over 0.5 BTC in months, not years. You seem to be viewing AM as a pure mining dividend play, which it isn't. AM != cex.io.

There's a limit to how fast they can produce new miners, and that's clearly going to be less than all the rest of the competition together, which means a decrease in network share. There's simply too much competition to be able to maintain their hash rate.


If you think AM will be worth more than 0.3 BTC, show the maths which leads you to believe that. Just because you want it to worth more than 0.3 BTC, that doesn't mean it will be.

Unless you want to wait years to make a profit from your investment, AM is a bad investment at 0.3 BTC. Waiting years in the hope of making a profit from mining is simply crazy in this climate. Do you think anyone would buy a miner if they thought it would 10 years to get their money back?

Thanks for sharing this point of view

The 2P to 20P range is just for the FIRST batch of gen 3 deployment. There will be other batches as well. What is important isn't deployment size or nm mask size, but rather this:

If one thinks that those numbers will be competitive with what other companies are producing in a few months, then AM will have a good slice of the mining pie (either through mining, sales, or franchising) and will have a value much higher than 0.3 BTC / share.

All of these numbers being thrown around are all guesses, estimations, and possibilities, except for one: 400,000 shares. People seem to pay little attention to this number because it appears irrelevant. I tend to think it is one of the most important. Everyone seems so focused on dividends and share price. That is understandable I suppose, because it lets you make simplistic valuation judgments. Judgments which are for the most part useless.

I don't see people looking at Google and trying to decide if they should purchase shares based upon current prices and dividends. When they decide to buy Apple shares, it is not because they will get their share price back in 238 years. They are buying a part of a company, and that company includes assets far more complicated than an ability to pay dividends.

5 years from now ASICminer could be Google, or Intel, or whatever player in the space you want to imagine. Own 1/400,000 of Google or Apple or Intel and tell me how you feel about your portfolio, especially if you bought that position for $200. Or you can tell your grandkids how you sold it for $200 because it would take 5 years of dividends to get your initial investment back. They will likely beat you to death and bury you in the backyard.

Shares in ASICminer are shares in the future. If you believe in bitcoin, surely you must have a feeling for what that future will entail. 20 years ago, most of the largest internet companies of today did not even exist yet. 20 years from now, the global behemoths may grow from the seeds of ASICminer today. This is the promise of ASICminer. A chance to own a part of the future before hardly anyone else has heard of it. To me, the risk/reward is obscene. Imagine ASICminer a 100 billion dollar company and see your shares valued at $250,000 each. As I see it, worrying about current dividend payouts is almost trivial.

The share price increasing is simply idiotic. Divs are going to decrease substantially before the new chips are in use. As I stated earlier:


Divs are not going back to previous levels and will start to drop again soon after.

Even if we used constant divs from 0.01 BTC per round per share and a share price of 0.32 BTC, it would take 32 rounds to make 100% profit (since you like that terminology better). That's rounds not weeks. There's not a chance AM is going to use all the chips for their mines and the majority of them will be for sale. What that means is that the first few weeks of divs may be higher than expected but will then fall dramatically.

If you use a share price of 0.32 BTC, a mining income of 0.01 BTC per round and a 20% increase in difficulty per round, is it even possible to make 100% profit?

it's not recovering the .32btc, it's doubling the .32 btc in that time.  100% return.  You still have the share.

no one is expecting the dividend to remain constant, that's why the share price is increasing.

For those too lazy to actually do such basic math, using the current share price of 0.32 BTC and dividends of 0.00081605 gives 393 weeks before recovering that 0.32 BTC, which is 7.5 years. That's assuming constant divs which is completely unrealistic.

Math. It's not just a good idea. Yeah, 100% return in 10 months, no one will ever accept that kind of crappy return.

FTFY

+1

I just don't see why share price would remain stable. Divs are likely to fall by a factor of 60 before the new chips are mining and afterwards are only likely to be around what they was last week. Then they'll fall just as fast as what we're seeing now and the cycle will repeat.

At 0.3 BTC per share and a guaranteed constant yield of 10%, it would take 10 years to recover the cost. So, if it would take 10 years with a constant yield, how long would it take with dividends decreasing by 20% each week?

If you do the maths, you'll see that a share price of 0.3 BTC is simply unsustainable. Everyone buying in now is going to lose a lot of money.

True enough but just as Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results
Future Dividends are not quoted before they come out 
Shouldn't be long now till we get the weekly amount though and your point is valid difficulty is still rising after all

It won't be 10% after dividends are paid. By the end of the month, it'll probably be under 1%.

10 But I'm going off Havelock

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/funds.php

AM1   14293   ฿0.30989899   ฿39.2   ฿169   ฿4429   ฿0.0006      10.28%   No
AM100   331915   ฿0.00300000   ฿2.8   ฿25   ฿996   ฿0.00000582      10.09%   No

Don't you mean 5%?

IMHO, the price is stable (well increasing) not because of dividends (which have shrunk considerably the last two weeks) but because people can see Gen3 coming ever closer.

In a few weeks, AM won't be returning anywhere near 10% but the share price will still be 0.30 or more. Just a prediction