ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 52.

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: empoweoqwj on January 01, 2014, 06:03:24 AM

Quote from: freedomno1 on January 01, 2014, 04:58:58 AM

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come Grin

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

I'm curious how many peoples New Year's Resolution is to try bitcoin and how many of those go for AM shares
Pending no serious disasters I'll join your bandwagon and say this range level is fairly stable as it is hard to find a fund that pays a weekly dividend at 10% current yield that is trusted.
With a few exceptions for some companies that give monthly returns the yield is fairly competitive.
Looking forward to the interesting year to come not just for AM but for Bitcoin in General
( Alts, litecoin mining speculation, super powerful mining buildings, alternative financing etc.)

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

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Quote from: freedomno1 on January 01, 2014, 04:58:58 AM

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come Grin

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

freedomno1

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1090

Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come Grin

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: willBTC on January 01, 2014, 12:35:21 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on December 31, 2013, 10:17:54 PM

There's a sell wall at 0.310000 Sad

it's have been eated.

Yeah, lol, was just going to be report its been eaten .....

Very good sign

willBTC

full member

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Quote from: empoweoqwj on December 31, 2013, 10:17:54 PM

There's a sell wall at 0.310000 Sad

it's have been eated.

empoweoqwj

hero member

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There's a sell wall at 0.310000 Sad

MilkyLep

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Bitcoin for all & all for Bitcoin

Quote from: Draino on December 31, 2013, 09:08:05 AM

so what's with the orderbooks for the passthroughs on havelock?

looks like someone is posting bids/asks within 10 satoshis of each other, pretty odd

I havent looked but it could be someones bot(s).

Draino

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so what's with the orderbooks for the passthroughs on havelock?

looks like someone is posting bids/asks within 10 satoshis of each other, pretty odd

Endlessa

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Merit: 250

Quote from: jimmothy on December 29, 2013, 06:22:34 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 06:16:12 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 05:20:35 PM

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following:

* 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share.
* 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share.

Let's say that their batch size is 20 Ph/s. A large proportion of that will be for sale and not go into their mines. I'd say around 0.005 BTC per round per share should be expected after the new chips start mining.

So, it's unlikely dividends will increase above what they are now.

It is even more unlikely that AM stays at 100TH forever. It is possible that AM delivers earlier than april/the competition and hardware sales could equate to more profit than mining with that amount of hardware.

I hear where you're coming from, but the next generation of hardware isn't being released into a first-to-market environment. It will be valued near break-even or better, unless none of these other companies ever do anything. the days are near gone where you'll be getting 10 btc for a miner that will only ever give you 0.5 btc. So, mining or not, the amount of hardware hash manufactured will track closely regardless of if you mine with it or if you sell it. . . . unless the plan is to sell non-professional low hash hardware to fan boys and noobs.

empoweoqwj

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Activity: 518

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Quote from: stslimited on December 29, 2013, 05:28:19 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 05:20:35 PM

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

lol

Ive been wondering why AM shares have held up in the .28 range at all, I can understand if people don't want to realize their paper losses and not sell, thats easy

but what I don't understand is why there is liquidity any where between .03 btc/share and .28 btc/share

Where do you get the 100 Th/s from?

FC clearly stated Gen3 would deliver "at launch" between 2 and 20 Ph/s

jimmothy

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Activity: 770

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Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 06:16:12 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 05:20:35 PM

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following:

* 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share.
* 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share.

Let's say that their batch size is 20 Ph/s. A large proportion of that will be for sale and not go into their mines. I'd say around 0.005 BTC per round per share should be expected after the new chips start mining.

So, it's unlikely dividends will increase above what they are now.

It is even more unlikely that AM stays at 100TH forever. It is possible that AM delivers earlier than april/the competition and hardware sales could equate to more profit than mining with that amount of hardware.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 05:20:35 PM

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following:

* 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share.
* 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share.

Let's say that their batch size is 20 Ph/s. A large proportion of that will be for sale and not go into their mines. I'd say around 0.005 BTC per round per share should be expected after the new chips start mining.

So, it's unlikely dividends will increase above what they are now.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: stslimited on December 29, 2013, 05:28:19 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 05:20:35 PM

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

lol

Ive been wondering why AM shares have held up in the .28 range at all, I can understand if people don't want to realize their paper losses and not sell, thats easy

but what I don't understand is why there is liquidity any where between .03 btc/share and .28 btc/share

I think they must be under the impression that the tape out date is when the new chips will start mining.

stslimited

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: Mabsark on December 29, 2013, 05:20:35 PM

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

lol

Ive been wondering why AM shares have held up in the .28 range at all, I can understand if people don't want to realize their paper losses and not sell, thats easy

but what I don't understand is why there is liquidity any where between .03 btc/share and .28 btc/share

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

WillBit

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

http://i.imgur.com/aN7JTrt.png
http://i.imgur.com/BavF1ww.png

empoweoqwj

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: Timetwister on December 26, 2013, 07:43:06 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on December 26, 2013, 07:41:04 AM

Quote from: Timetwister on December 26, 2013, 07:38:25 AM

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

The share price is not based on currently technology.

Of course, it's just expectations on improving the hashrate and being able to sell hardware. But right now, if nothing changes, shares are very overvalued.

A case of stating the complete obvious. If things don't change, the company will be dead in six months. That's the gamble.

bobboooiie

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Activity: 656

Merit: 500

Quote from: Timetwister on December 26, 2013, 07:43:06 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on December 26, 2013, 07:41:04 AM

Quote from: Timetwister on December 26, 2013, 07:38:25 AM

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

The share price is not based on currently technology.

Of course, it's just expectations on improving the hashrate and being able to sell hardware. But right now, if nothing changes, shares are very overvalued.

http://i.imgur.com/NwFYgvs.gif

Timetwister

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Quote from: empoweoqwj on December 26, 2013, 07:41:04 AM

Quote from: Timetwister on December 26, 2013, 07:38:25 AM

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

The share price is not based on currently technology.

Of course, it's just expectations on improving the hashrate and being able to sell hardware. But right now, if nothing changes, shares are very overvalued.

bobboooiie

hero member

Activity: 656

Merit: 500

Quote from: Timetwister on December 26, 2013, 07:38:25 AM

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

So is your self belief about your logic. This is not a mining bond which is what you are trying to describe in your speculation.

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 52. (Read 808847 times)