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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 65. (Read 808757 times)

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
November 23, 2013, 06:33:13 PM
If at least one company starts to sell immediately shipping equipment, AM will have to be much more competitive and I would then doubt it could achieve that high dividends and share price again.

If they do with Gen3 what they did with Gen1 and Block Erupters, that is cute easy to use miners with accessible single unit price, it could work out very well.

I don't think we will be seeing another "gold rush".
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
November 23, 2013, 06:24:44 PM
Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 Tongue but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.

I think anything above 1btc per share is going to be a huge over evaluation. With difficulty so high maintaining hashrate becomes harder and I doubt we will ever see upwards of 20% control. I would think 10% is more achievable and with 10% I value the shares at 1btc per.
sr. member
Activity: 404
Merit: 252
November 23, 2013, 06:10:25 PM
Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 Tongue but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.
hero member
Activity: 489
Merit: 500
Immersionist
November 23, 2013, 06:14:47 AM
Something to ponder.

Quote
Looking at some of the individual systems, the new champion of the Green500 is an interesting and admittedly small scale system out of Japan called TSUBAME-KFC. At 27.78 kW in power consumption and 150 TFLOPS, TSUBAME-KFC isn’t very powerful, but at 4,503 MFLOPS/W it’s by far the most efficient system on the list. The secret – and to our knowledge this is the only ranked supercomputer like this – is that TSUBAME-KFC is the only oil immersion supercomputer on the list. As we’ve seen in the past with systems such as Eurora, supercomputer builders are playing with increasingly exotic forms of cooling in order to keep power consumption down and to further increase efficiency, as the largest scale installations are bounded more by power/cooling needs than they are equipment costs.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/7539/fall-2013-supercomputer-rankings-released-achiving-max-efficiency-with-oil

What AM is using is way better than oil. Oil is extremely messy and still needs heat sinks etc.

With passive two-phase immersion cooling finally happening I don't think oil cooling has a very long lifespan. There are probably companies that have already invested in it and it will take them a few years to get rid of it, but it won't stay much longer than that IMHO. Only advantage I see now is that you can get mineral oil openly, but fluids for passive (at this moment) only from 3M.

Quote
How is 2-phase immersion cooling different from oil cooling?

2-phase immersion cooling does a much better job at cooling electronics, at much lower cost with less resources. Because of the physical limitations of oil and cooling, high density as in 2-phase immersion would simply not be possible.

Oil cooling is a single phase process. Oil cooling systems are not passive, it requires hydraulic pumps to take hot oil away from hot spots because oil is a fluid with high viscosity. Passive 2-phase immersion cooling uses fluids with a very low viscosity just like water. This means the liquid circulates passively, taking the heat away efficiently without any pumps. Oil needs filtration and treatment and has a limited lifespan when used for electronics cooling.

The engineered fluids in a passive immersion system are inert, have a shelf life of 30 years and show no degradation after long term use for cooling. While the fluid is not particularly hot (ie. 34°C or 49°C when it boils), the constant boiling and condensation is a distillation process on its own. It's also very clean (not oily or greasy), has zero ozone depletion, very low global warming potential, and it is the best fire protection one can imagine (Novec 1230 is state-of-the-art data center fire protection).

Using large amounts of oil in a data center brings non-technical implications since oil is classified as dangerous and flammable. Government regulations, fire safety standards and insurance risks all require careful considerations.

Oil cooling can reduce electricity bills and the burden on the environment. However, in an oil cooling application fans and air filters are replaced with hydraulic pumps and oil filters, while passive 2-phase immersion cooling simply eliminates these resource hogs altogether.

Technically and physically, passive 2-phase immersion cooling is way ahead, and practically we believe the same is also true.

http://www.allied-control.com/immersion-cooling/frequently-asked-questions-faqs

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
November 22, 2013, 11:10:24 PM
As far as I know, thought I can't read Chinese so may have missed something  Grin, FC has never mentioned 28nm

Do I care? No. The stats he provided yesterday are what I care about:

"Power consumption is <0.2W per G and <0.2$ per G wafer cost."

nm is for show, cost per G is for dough

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 501
November 22, 2013, 11:00:07 PM
probably comes from all the speculation babble around any AM related news. at some point you're not sure what's rumor and what's official

This was always true, but recently it was like a firework of made-up but confident BS.

seems to result from the overall sentiment with bitcoin reaching bubble territory again.
feels sometimes like a stirred up anthill in this forum. (at least on some threads)
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1003
Still wild and free
November 22, 2013, 10:38:37 PM
probably comes from all the speculation babble around any AM related news. at some point you're not sure what's rumor and what's official

This was always true, but recently it was like a firework of made-up but confident BS.
full member
Activity: 120
Merit: 100
November 22, 2013, 10:05:22 PM
over 300BTC in the AM wallet now =)

Damiano please check your PMs. Thanks
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 501
November 22, 2013, 09:31:28 PM
This was where I got the 28nm from. Not sure if it was an assumption or rumor that 28nm was gen3 but this is what started it I believe.

Regardless of the nm, assuming next gen asicminer chips specs are somewhat accurate, they will compete with anything on the market.
yea i somehow also stored 3rd gen under 28nm in my brain.
probably comes from all the speculation babble around any AM related news. at some point you're not sure what's rumor and what's official
at least we have a new update by friedcat that shareholders can dissect to the bone until next month.   Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
November 22, 2013, 08:43:14 PM
For the third time: provide link or STFU.
perhaps i don't get the context,
but mentioned interview was done by a user from chinese subforum and found its way to AM-thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3404411

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjI1OTIxMTc2.html

One of our group members in Chinese community had an interview with Friedcat today. Above is the brief introduction of what Friedcat has done and planned to be accomplished in the next months.
To be short:
1. 1000T would be released around Nov 7th. These chips may be sold or deployed, depending on the situation then.
2. 2nd Gen chips have already been developed long time ago. But they were delayed to deploy considering the unsatisfactory performance.
3. 3rd Gen chips were also under development during that period. It is already developed now but still under test. It is expected to become a mature product in Feb 2014, which means its key indicators would be much better than those of its competitors. It is estimated that the network hashing power would be 1000p then, while Friedcat would deliver several hundred of it.


This was where I got the 28nm from. Not sure if it was an assumption or rumor that 28nm was gen3 but this is what started it I believe.

Regardless of the nm, assuming next gen asicminer chips specs are somewhat accurate, they will compete with anything on the market.
KS
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
November 22, 2013, 08:40:04 PM
Gen3 is 40nm anyway.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 501
November 22, 2013, 08:35:16 PM
For the third time: provide link or STFU.
perhaps i don't get the context,
but mentioned interview was done by a user from chinese subforum and found its way to AM-thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3404411

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjI1OTIxMTc2.html

One of our group members in Chinese community had an interview with Friedcat today. Above is the brief introduction of what Friedcat has done and planned to be accomplished in the next months.
To be short:
1. 1000T would be released around Nov 7th. These chips may be sold or deployed, depending on the situation then.
2. 2nd Gen chips have already been developed long time ago. But they were delayed to deploy considering the unsatisfactory performance.
3. 3rd Gen chips were also under development during that period. It is already developed now but still under test. It is expected to become a mature product in Feb 2014, which means its key indicators would be much better than those of its competitors. It is estimated that the network hashing power would be 1000p then, while Friedcat would deliver several hundred of it.

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.
November 22, 2013, 07:51:09 PM
over 300BTC in the AM wallet now =)
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
November 22, 2013, 06:40:50 PM
please provide proof or sftu

As soon as AM's "competitors" provide proof we can compare. We have made up specs from both sides so lets wait until either have an actual working product. Everything else is purely speculation.
I was obviously pointing out your claims that 28 nm etc. had been announced earlier. It's easy. Just quote a post.

28nm gen3 was announced in the interview a few weeks ago and possibly before that.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
November 22, 2013, 06:39:35 PM
No one in their right mind is going to buy into a steadily declining stock with the hopes of a temporary div increase.

price has risen 30% since you made this statement.

Fatcat broke the silence. Get a clue.

More like confirmed what we already knew along with more details on how badass next gen will be. Literally nothing on the market or even announced that can compete so far.

Hahahahaha.

Are you trolling bears, or do you really believe this?

we already knew 28nm tech was coming some time 1st quarter of 2014. We now have confirmation as well as dome guestimated specs which beat any competitors made up specs. So yes I do believe this.

Ok, time for a reality check then.

.2 J/G is good, but electricity is not yet the focus and we have no idea what "low power mode" means.

$.2/G on silicon is not impressive at all for 3rd gen coming out most likely in mid 2014. Consider that Cointerra has been selling at $3/G since January delivery and started out selling at something like $7/G for December delivery. How much do you think they are REALLY paying for their silicon? Most likely their silicon costs are less than half of their unit cost, plus their NRE - and I guarantee they are making a hefty profit. At most they are paying $.5/G for their second gen and it is likely less.

This is to say: margins will be very slim indeed - certainly they won't compare to the thousands of percent in Gen 1 and definitely not enough to justify a 50x price to book ratio like it did in March.

I do believe that electricity will be very important in the long run. I don't deny the fact that we will never see a "gold rush" but it is very possible am provides 28nm tech for cheaper than european and american manufacturers can sell for. But the real long term goal imo is an efficient  and powerful solomining operation and possibly hardware sales on the side.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
November 22, 2013, 06:34:37 PM
please provide proof or sftu

As soon as AM's "competitors" provide proof we can compare. We have made up specs from both sides so lets wait until either have an actual working product. Everything else is purely speculation.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
November 22, 2013, 06:32:08 PM
No one in their right mind is going to buy into a steadily declining stock with the hopes of a temporary div increase.

price has risen 30% since you made this statement.

Fatcat broke the silence. Get a clue.

More like confirmed what we already knew along with more details on how badass next gen will be. Literally nothing on the market or even announced that can compete so far.

Hahahahaha.

Are you trolling bears, or do you really believe this?

we already knew 28nm tech was coming some time 1st quarter of 2014. We now have confirmation as well as dome guestimated specs which beat any competitors made up specs. So yes I do believe this.

Ok, time for a reality check then.

.2 J/G is good, but electricity is not yet the focus and we have no idea what "low power mode" means.

$.2/G on silicon is not impressive at all for 3rd gen coming out most likely in mid 2014. Consider that Cointerra has been selling at $3/G since January delivery and started out selling at something like $7/G for December delivery. How much do you think they are REALLY paying for their silicon? Most likely their silicon costs are less than half of their unit cost, plus their NRE - and I guarantee they are making a hefty profit. At most they are paying $.5/G for their second gen and it is likely less.

This is to say: margins will be very slim indeed - certainly they won't compare to the thousands of percent in Gen 1 and definitely not enough to justify a 50x price to book ratio like it did in March.

If you're holding shares, you're inviting disaster. AM's competitors haven't announced their products and I suspect it's not going to play out in AM's favor.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
November 22, 2013, 06:16:56 PM
No one in their right mind is going to buy into a steadily declining stock with the hopes of a temporary div increase.

price has risen 30% since you made this statement.

Fatcat broke the silence. Get a clue.

More like confirmed what we already knew along with more details on how badass next gen will be. Literally nothing on the market or even announced that can compete so far.

Hahahahaha.

Are you trolling bears, or do you really believe this?

we already knew 28nm tech was coming some time 1st quarter of 2014. We now have confirmation as well as dome guestimated specs which beat any competitors made up specs. So yes I do believe this.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
November 22, 2013, 06:07:22 PM
No one in their right mind is going to buy into a steadily declining stock with the hopes of a temporary div increase.

price has risen 30% since you made this statement.

Fatcat broke the silence. Get a clue.

More like confirmed what we already knew along with more details on how badass next gen will be. Literally nothing on the market or even announced that can compete so far.

Hahahahaha.

Are you trolling bears, or do you really believe this?
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
November 22, 2013, 04:28:44 PM
Since future price and revenue is going to be highly dependent on Gen3, here is a bet: Asicminer gen3 on schedule


Did you mean 4 GH per Joule? The units don't work out as stated in the bet.
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