[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 10.

suchmoon

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 05, 2020, 01:58:04 PM

AZ has been called for Biden as well, though it seems like this call may have been too early. News reports are saying that with the amount of absentee ballots Trump could still pull the state back. - If Biden ends up winning this, then NV can decide the fate of this election.

NV has not been called, it's close right now as they're counting the absentee ballots. I think Trump will pull through and win this.

I agree with the analysis about AZ and NV regarding the tourism industry and why they'll be a bit happier to turn to Trump regarding opening the economy.

GA is going to be tight, Pennsylvania as well. Friday will probably be when we hear about these.

The numbers that are trickling in from AZ don't show the 60:40 advantage that Trump needed to close the gap. And he probably needs more than that now (fewer uncounted votes remain).

PA on the other hand shows 70-80% Biden's advantage in mail-ins and he needs about 60% to close the gap.

Difference in GA is ~12800 votes and ~50000 left to count. This is almost certainly heading to a recount.

squatz1

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Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 05, 2020, 01:43:21 AM

Quote from: Gyfts on November 05, 2020, 01:18:11 AM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 05, 2020, 12:38:14 AM

Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.

I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early.

Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me.

I would say that NV or AZ going Trump's way is more likely than WI or MI. NV (and to a lesser extent, AZ) has an economy that is heavily based on tourism, and tourism is not possible when the country is locked down. Trump may perform better in Reno and Vegas than he might do in other cities because of the tourism employees voting Trump to avoid lockdown related layoffs and casinos going out of business that would happen under a Biden administration.

In AZ, it will really come down to Maricopa county. I understand he needs about 57% of the remaining vote in Maricopa county to stay competitive in AZ.

Flipping one of AZ, NV, WI or MI would likely put Trump back in the White House until 2024. It may come down to a court case making it to the SC. Trump can also technically still win even if he does not flip any of those states, but otherwise runs the table (takes PA, GA, and NC). If Trump were to stop any of AZ, NV, WI, or MI from casting their electrical votes, Biden would not make it to 270, and Congress would elect the President with each state getting one vote, and Republicans hold the advantage.

WI and MI have both been called for Biden.

AZ has been called for Biden as well, though it seems like this call may have been too early. News reports are saying that with the amount of absentee ballots Trump could still pull the state back. - If Biden ends up winning this, then NV can decide the fate of this election.

NV has not been called, it's close right now as they're counting the absentee ballots. I think Trump will pull through and win this.

I agree with the analysis about AZ and NV regarding the tourism industry and why they'll be a bit happier to turn to Trump regarding opening the economy.

GA is going to be tight, Pennsylvania as well. Friday will probably be when we hear about these.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: Gyfts on November 05, 2020, 01:18:11 AM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 05, 2020, 12:38:14 AM

Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.

I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early.

Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me.

I would say that NV or AZ going Trump's way is more likely than WI or MI. NV (and to a lesser extent, AZ) has an economy that is heavily based on tourism, and tourism is not possible when the country is locked down. Trump may perform better in Reno and Vegas than he might do in other cities because of the tourism employees voting Trump to avoid lockdown related layoffs and casinos going out of business that would happen under a Biden administration.

In AZ, it will really come down to Maricopa county. I understand he needs about 57% of the remaining vote in Maricopa county to stay competitive in AZ.

Flipping one of AZ, NV, WI or MI would likely put Trump back in the White House until 2024. It may come down to a court case making it to the SC. Trump can also technically still win even if he does not flip any of those states, but otherwise runs the table (takes PA, GA, and NC). If Trump were to stop any of AZ, NV, WI, or MI from casting their electrical votes, Biden would not make it to 270, and Congress would elect the President with each state getting one vote, and Republicans hold the advantage.

Josefjix

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yes

Joe Biden is such a quiet performer, Trump was so loud both on twitter and every time he appears for interviews one would think he has the power to re-elect himself without the people's mandate. It serves him and everyone who is loudmouthed like him to learn to control his expressions. Congratulations to Biden.

Gyfts

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Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 05, 2020, 12:38:14 AM

Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.

I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early.

Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: Gyfts on November 05, 2020, 12:00:10 AM

Election is over. Trump will not win AZ.

Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.

Quote from: nullius on November 02, 2020, 10:57:36 PM

America is not the world-police.

While I agree with this, the above does not mean the rest of the world can do whatever they want without consequence. If a person on the forum is acting in a way I do not like, I may be uninclined to transact business with that person. This is very similar to what Trump was threatening to do with regard to Turkey. Trump has also gotten NATO allies to contribute to defense budgets, which should lead to any "police" action being lead by a broad collation rather than the US alone.

Gyfts

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Election is over. Trump will not win AZ.

Thought it was close until AZ flipped blue. Trump outperformed and so did senate/house republicans. Guess this is the silver lining.

I don’t think it is productive to chalk this election to voter fraud. I think too many Republicans won’t want Trump to concede. That’s literally the conversation amongst Republican groups rn.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: nullius on November 04, 2020, 06:48:35 PM

Doublethink: An illustration of the liberal mind, its hypocrisy, and its self-serving delusions:

Quote from: suchmoon on November 04, 2020, 03:53:43 PM

The trumpening is happening...

[—wild conspiracy theories about Trump—]

Quote from: suchmoon on November 04, 2020, 04:48:02 PM

[—wild conspiracy theories about Trump—]

Quote from: ?? on ??

[—extremely wild conspiracy theories about Trump—]

Quote from: nutildah on November 04, 2020, 06:04:58 PM

Quote from: eddie13 on November 04, 2020, 05:47:03 PM

Some "wonky" stuff going down..

Lol bro. [...] Got a link for your [] story?

I observed the same phenomenon in 2016–17: Liberals who sneer at hard evidence of real conspiracies were insanely convinced that Russia controlled the election, and Trump stole it.

Actually, they do this every day. It is just how their minds work.

Protip: If Trump had the balls to seize the presidency by some more or less not-quite-legal means, then in his first two years, he would have (a) completely sealed the border with Mexico, (b) deported a few zillion of the liberals’ very most favourite contributors to a vibrant American society and “culture” (newsflash: America never had a culture), (c) run through the entrenched Federal bureaucracy like a bull in a china shop, (d) otherwise given you genetically lachrymose liberals something real to cry about—something beyond grandstanding Tweets.

Two examples of U.S. presidents who basically did whatever the fuck they wanted were Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Study the history of what they did to ram their ways through all opposition, and try to imagine how liberals would react if Trump were to do even a tiny fraction as much.

Of course, I have cited two presidents whom liberals will never criticize in any way—even if one of them was from the Republican Party.

you simply don’t remember that republicans had many types

A) liberals
B) centrists
C) conservatives

lastly

Democrats had a group of

A) liberals
B) centrists
C) conservatives

Now in America

Liberal = Democrat
Conservative = Republican

This is not good.

suchmoon

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Quote from: sirazimuth on November 04, 2020, 07:04:34 PM

suchmoons odds etc... (and hopefully, my last copypasta post on this matter)

https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/

Only -500... I would have thought Biden would be -5000 by now. Not too many ways for Trump to win anymore.

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 04, 2020, 07:45:48 PM

what happens if this goes to court like gore v bush ?

does not matter who wins now?

just the court decision counts?

it looks like biden will be declared unofficial winner late tonight or early tomorrow.

do you pay up or do we wait til December to see what the court does?

It's based on the electoral college results. So if courts make decisions affecting EC - it may affect the bet as well.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: eddie13 on November 04, 2020, 05:47:03 PM

Michigan is being pretty F'd up.. Some strange vote jumps 100% for biden, and atleast 1 case of voter machines overvoting for the left (to put it nicely)..
Antrim county Michigan fakes Biden votes???!!!

Some "wonky" stuff going down..

what happens if this goes to court like gore v bush ?

does not matter who wins now?

just the court decision counts?

it looks like biden will be declared unofficial winner late tonight or early tomorrow.

do you pay up or do we wait til December to see what the court does?

hornetsnest

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sirazimuth

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born once atheist

suchmoons odds etc... (and hopefully, my last copypasta post on this matter)

https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Doublethink: An illustration of the liberal mind, its hypocrisy, and its self-serving delusions:

Quote from: suchmoon on November 04, 2020, 03:53:43 PM

The trumpening is happening...

[—wild conspiracy theories about Trump—]

Quote from: suchmoon on November 04, 2020, 04:48:02 PM

[—wild conspiracy theories about Trump—]

Quote from: ?? on ??

[—extremely wild conspiracy theories about Trump—]

Quote from: nutildah on November 04, 2020, 06:04:58 PM

Quote from: eddie13 on November 04, 2020, 05:47:03 PM

Some "wonky" stuff going down..

Lol bro. [...] Got a link for your [] story?

I observed the same phenomenon in 2016–17: Liberals who sneer at hard evidence of real conspiracies were insanely convinced that Russia controlled the election, and Trump stole it.

Actually, they do this every day. It is just how their minds work.

Protip: If Trump had the balls to seize the presidency by some more or less not-quite-legal means, then in his first two years, he would have (a) completely sealed the border with Mexico, (b) deported a few zillion of the liberals’ very most favourite contributors to a vibrant American society and “culture” (newsflash: America never had a culture), (c) run through the entrenched Federal bureaucracy like a bull in a china shop, (d) otherwise given you genetically lachrymose liberals something real to cry about—something beyond grandstanding Tweets.

Two examples of U.S. presidents who basically did whatever the fuck they wanted were Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Study the history of what they did to ram their ways through all opposition, and try to imagine how liberals would react if Trump were to do even a tiny fraction as much.

Of course, I have cited two presidents whom liberals will never criticize in any way—even if one of them was from the Republican Party.

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Quote from: nutildah on November 04, 2020, 06:04:58 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 04, 2020, 05:42:03 PM

Well he just 'claimed' enough electoral votes to win, so I guess that's that

He called dibs on them before Biden did, that means they're his. That's how it works.

Quote from: eddie13 on November 04, 2020, 05:47:03 PM

Michigan is being pretty F'd up.. Some strange vote jumps 100% for biden, and atleast 1 case of voter machines overvoting for the left (to put it nicely)..
Antrim county Michigan fakes Biden votes???!!!

Some "wonky" stuff going down..

Lol bro. The whole story is some guy in a tiny Michigan county said, "Hey, this doesn't seem right!" Meanwhile Antrim county has officially reported 0% of their vote.

Got a link for your "overvoting" story?

It was reported until it got caught, then it was taken down..
Same computer voting system used in 33 other Michigan counties..

nutildah

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 04, 2020, 05:42:03 PM

Well he just 'claimed' enough electoral votes to win, so I guess that's that

He called dibs on them before Biden did, that means they're his. That's how it works.

Quote from: eddie13 on November 04, 2020, 05:47:03 PM

Michigan is being pretty F'd up.. Some strange vote jumps 100% for biden, and atleast 1 case of voter machines overvoting for the left (to put it nicely)..
Antrim county Michigan fakes Biden votes???!!!

Some "wonky" stuff going down..

Lol bro. The whole story is some guy in a tiny Michigan county said, "Hey, this doesn't seem right!" Meanwhile Antrim county has officially reported 0% of their vote.

Got a link for your "overvoting" story?

El duderino_

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BTC + Crossfit, living life.

So we ain't getting this Cheesy

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Michigan is being pretty F'd up.. Some strange vote jumps 100% for biden, and atleast 1 case of voter machines overvoting for the left (to put it nicely)..
Antrim county Michigan fakes Biden votes???!!!

Some "wonky" stuff going down..

TwitchySeal

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Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: suchmoon on November 04, 2020, 05:30:01 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on November 04, 2020, 05:12:33 PM

This is very far from my European bed... Following as best as I can, but what is the situation, will it be Biden or Trump? Best guesses ....

No need to guess much anymore... math is on Biden's side, Trump has mostly tantrums remaining.

For the moment I am agreeing with you. So now let's bet on how bad the tantrums will be.

Odds I'm taking for:

- Epic meltdown twitstorm gets Trump banned from Twitter: 20%
- He refuses the leave office until a ruling is made by the Supreme Court: 20%
- He blames China for election interference: 20%
- He waves his middle finger at the press and tells everybody to fuck off: 10%
- He calls on the militias to "do their duty" to protect the president at all costs: 10%
- He rips his hair off in disgust: 5%

Well he just 'claimed' enough electoral votes to win, so I guess that's that, we'll just have to have two presidents.

suchmoon

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Quote from: El duderino_ on November 04, 2020, 05:12:33 PM

This is very far from my European bed... Following as best as I can, but what is the situation, will it be Biden or Trump? Best guesses ....

No need to guess much anymore... math is on Biden's side, Trump has mostly tantrums remaining.

El duderino_

legendary

Activity: 2716

Merit: 13505

BTC + Crossfit, living life.

This is very far from my European bed... Following as best as I can, but what is the situation, will it be Biden or Trump? Best guesses ....

Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 10. (Read 11803 times)