Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 13. (Read 11803 times)

Only a few days out, so some concluding remarks on this election cycle in regards to the campaigns.

I'll start with Trump because he is obviously the extreme underdog.

If Trump loses:

I think his campaign was ran horribly. His last 1.5 weeks of campaigning was based on a Hunter Biden story which correctly points out that Hunter used his dad's last name to make bank across the globe. But, who cares? The media would never run with it, obviously, and Americans do not care enough to do research into the matter themselves. Other issues are more important. There's evidence that the polling gap closed in Trump's favor over the last couple weeks, so it was a devastating mistake to shift his campaign message away from Biden's extreme policies, and focus it on his son who isn't running. My personal view is that the Hunter Biden story pointed out that Biden is this typical Washington DC corrupt politician, but again, is some middle class family man going to think the same thing? Would they care? Meh.

COVID-19 obviously another reason why Trump loses. Joe Biden is the normal candidate and Americans, when faced with crisis, depend on someone who is "normal" for comfort. I don't really blame them. If all you are watching is CNN doom and gloom headlines, you will feel panicked. Trump also like a fucking dipshit ran his Twitter account into overdrive (this is my BIGGEST gripe with Trump, being a complete fool with his twitter account). He on numerous occasions would butt heads with Dr. Fauci who was the only doctor that Americans would feel comfortable with (for reasons I don't understand). On policy, Trump didn't do that bad. But do Americans *feel* safe with Trump in office? Probably not. And we know how this works, feelings over facts.


If Biden loses:

In my opinion, it's because of two reasons.

1.) Kamala Harris
2.) Splitting the lane with the moderates and the left.

You can get the strong sense, even if you're a liberal, that Kamala Harris is an extremely dishonest character. Realistically, had it not been for George Floyd, we would see Klobuchar as Biden's VP pick. This knee jerk reaction to select a black woman who has an extreme left history (GND, most liberal record in Senate, Medicare 4 all) would be Biden's biggest mistake. She was California's top cop, and now she is supposedly going to be a champion of the left and fight for police reform? Sure. Anyone can recognize she is an opportunist who say anything to get elected. She is going to be the U.S.'s president if Biden wins.

Second point, Joe Biden on policy needed to stick to the moderate lane and he didn't. Whether it's in regard to police reform, climate change, immigration/amnesty, he's chosen the extreme far left position across the board to capture the far left and moderate lane. Problem is, you really can't have both. Biden's suggestion that America and law enforcement are systemically racist is not a winning message. Advocating for trillions in government spending to make a miniscule impact on climate change while destroying the U.S. economy is not a winning plan. And paving the way for millions of illegals to become citizens just so you get more democratic voters not a logical way to solve illegal immigration. I've said it before -- on policy, Trump wins. On character, Biden wins by a landslide. I guess we'll see on Tuesday what Americans care more about but if the polling is any indication, we already know the answer.

What do you guys think about this?

If you play around with 538's little tool - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews - you're able to see that the map can get interesting pretty fast. Take this situation:

Trump winning Florida changes this map around very quickly. That immediately puts him at a 30 percent chance of winning. Then if Arizona comes in, we're at a 55-43 situation, with Biden still leading. But now we're in cointoss territory as Trump has defied the polls in some places, which means that turnout is probably pretty good for him and the GOP.

This isn't such an easy win for Biden like the media is making it out to be.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

After messing around with the electoral map, Biden quite literally has 270+ electoral votes before even factoring in swing stages. Take all the democratic states where Biden is leading largely and give them to him (including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), Biden wins.

Give Trump all of his red states, he still needs Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and one of the three rust belt states above to barely break 270. All these states are essentially toss ups. Some models have given Texas "lean R" to "toss up" but there is no way in hell Texas will vote for Biden so I'm not going to bother including that.

Out of the three rust belt states, Pennsylvania is probably the closest. Recent poll has Trump up by 2 points, but it's not a very accurate poll. Looking at Biden's RCP average, it dropped largely from what it was a month ago.

So, the ONLY outcome of Trump winning this election is taking all the swing states, and stealing Pennsylvania from Biden which is about the only state that is within the margin of error out of the three I mentioned above.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/mRL9Y

I have Biden at 279 electoral votes so far.

For a Trump victory, this is what I predict that electoral map would look like:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZmP8Q

Life member since I was about 11 or 12


Well.. I could be 100% certain it wouldn't benefit my Satoshi stash, couldn't I?

I look at these bets as a risk to benefit my wallet, not just a chance to lose a bunch of Satoshis "for a good cause"..

I have spent FAR too much of my life/time helping other people and not getting anywhere for it..
It's time to help ME..
Huge reason I'm taking an out of town gig, is to escape and focus on myself for a change.. My financial security and my future, instead of always spending my life away to help someone else..
Literally gave a bunch of my blood away today to make it happen, + piss, and took a dose of radiation straight to the heart..

Think I pass, hope I pass.. Have some hearing loss apparently, likely from bangsticks..

Seems perfectly fine to me but I'm not setting the rules over there. It's a bit funny though how you first jumped on it but now... losing confidence?

Chant a few MAGAs, get your game back on!


Too sophisticated. Self-mod retaliation is more like this:

Nor am I.  (Largely because nonprofit organizations are usually corrupt as hell.)

The way I see it:  If I were to bet against theymos and lose, then he could donate the money if he wants.  Now, if I lose, I will instead donate to something suggested by him, and acceptable to me; whereas if I win, he will donate to something that I probably do not disagree with.

Either way, it is much better than risking that I may give my money to a liberal!


Nor am I.  It is an open secret that I’m poor.  0.01 BTC is significant to me—I can afford to risk it, but barely so.  I wouldn’t want to make a fuss about it.  Moreover, there is no practical difference between sending the money to theymos, and sending it to the NCLA:  Either way, I am out 0.01 BTC if Trump loses.


Awww.  Spoilsport.  :-(

The NRA is always looking for donations...


Very sensor, much ship.



Its more sensor than ship though.

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..
Haven't decided how to phrase a reply of "no thanks" to that yet..

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..

theymos had suggested the NCLA to me.  I think that was the target of suchmoon’s misguided grandstanding.

Upon a brief review of the NCLA’s website, three things jumped out at me:

• The NCLA’s endorsement of Amy Coney Barrett’s record of quashing administrative law tyranny.
• The NCLA’s defence of Bitcoiners against privacy violations by the IRS.
• Gun rights!

Please let me know what you think.

---

Quoted for the next time somebody complains about your own self-mod actions.  I notice that you consistently ban quite a list of users from your threads.  My name was not on the list for the thread where I posted, or any previous list of yours that I have seen.  You were banned by name in the OP’s local rules of the thread where you posted.  Stop whining like such a lunatic.

Well, it's actually your bet with theymos, I'm just an intruder. If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it, just watch out for those sensor ships and don't say anything unpleasant about the nutcase OP.

ACLU?
Yuck..

That is very funny -- not often do you see $140 jokes being made around here.

I don't have the confidence you do that Trump has already lost. Too shattered since last time. If we learned anything from 2016, its that nobody really knows what the fuck is going on.

What censorship?  Before I deleted your post, I appended it to the end of mine with an appropriate note:



Per its OP, that whole thread only got started because you deleted my reply to eddie13’s offer to theymos.  You didn’t delete that—nor did you delete some other talk about wagering.  The only reasonable explanation is that you deleted my post out of petty personal dislike for its author.

And now you whine because I have stated upfront that you are categorically banned from my self-mod threads^*?  

* Except if I were to bring an accusation against you; per what I stated, the accused shall always have a fair right of reply in my self-moderated threads.


Among other things, hypocrisy is untrustworthy.

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:


Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

You are probably right, but I still give Trump about a 15% chance of victory. Of course, a 15% chance in politics pretty much means this election is a wrap.

I still think we'll see a couple states be a bit closer than what the polls are showing. But since we're a week out, and the polls have indicated the gap is not closing, my final prediction is that Biden wins the electoral college.

Can't win them all, oh well. 

This is new.  Usually, I am accused of being an idealistic dreamer. ;-)


I’m not sure why you are arguing about the media polls with me, when your own statement was that Trump was an underdog in the betting markets.


A part of my point was that if PN7’s numbers are correct (probably—haven’t checked—don’t really care), Trump is less of an underdog now than he was in 2016.  And—guess who became U.S. president in 2016.


A deeper point is that this is a plebiscite on Trump:

Quote from: eddie13 on October 26, 2020, 04:03:22 PM

biden anti-trump betters

Well said.

All of this is consistent with my point:  Many Americans were disillusioned—literally, they stopped seeing the illusion of importance in the vote.  Trump got them re-engaged with the system.  Good job!

Quote from: nullius on October 16, 2020, 09:10:33 AM

Due to huge numbers of early voting it's getting increasingly unlikely with every day. For example if FBI announced an investigation into whatever Fox News is accusing Biden of, it would be much less likely to have the same kind of impact like Hillary's e-mails did because so many have already voted.

Yep. Glad we could straighten things out.

I just got back from a memorial service at a veteran's cemetery; probably one of the nicest in the nation. It was for a Korean War vet: he was an old guy that lived a full life, and it was a powerful experience. It actually made me feel proud to be an American for the first time in a while. Basically, I hope that regardless of who gets elected, the division in our country will die down at least a little bit.


I'm quite tired of your pointless pettiness and am sticking you on ignore. Just thought I'd let you know in case you wonder why I'm no longer responding to you. You clearly have an axe to grind with the entire world (except for Lauda, RIP) and that's neither my fault nor problem.

Some goes for PrimeNumber7/Quickseller. Not interested anymore.

Get a life, because life is short, and it will be the only one you'll have.

National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

For someone that is usually so pragmatic I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path.  There were plenty of pundits saying Trump was dead in the water, but that didn't reflect the actual numbers and really anyone that says they know for certain what the outcome will be before election day is either a liar or a fool and should be ignored.

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

The final national polls on average had Clinton with a 3.2 point lead and she ended up receiving 2.1% more votes.