[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 13.

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Quote from: eddie13 on October 27, 2020, 06:35:21 PM

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..

Nor am I. (Largely because nonprofit organizations are usually corrupt as hell.)

The way I see it: If I were to bet against theymos and lose, then he could donate the money if he wants. Now, if I lose, I will instead donate to something suggested by him, and acceptable to me; whereas if I win, he will donate to something that I probably do not disagree with.

Either way, it is much better than risking that I may give my money to a liberal!

Quote from: eddie13 on October 27, 2020, 06:35:21 PM

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

Nor am I. It is an open secret that I’m poor. 0.01 BTC is significant to me—I can afford to risk it, but barely so. I wouldn’t want to make a fuss about it. Moreover, there is no practical difference between sending the money to theymos, and sending it to the NCLA: Either way, I am out 0.01 BTC if Trump loses.

Quote from: eddie13 on October 27, 2020, 06:35:21 PM

Haven't decided how to phrase a reply of "no thanks" to that yet..

Awww. Spoilsport. :-(

nutildah

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 27, 2020, 06:07:53 PM

If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it

The NRA is always looking for donations...

Quote from: suchmoon on October 27, 2020, 06:07:53 PM

just watch out for those sensor ships

Very sensor, much ship.

Its more sensor than ship though.

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Quote from: suchmoon on October 27, 2020, 06:07:53 PM

If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..
Haven't decided how to phrase a reply of "no thanks" to that yet..

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Quote from: eddie13 on October 27, 2020, 05:58:02 PM

ACLU?
Yuck..

theymos had suggested the NCLA to me. I think that was the target of suchmoon’s misguided grandstanding.

Upon a brief review of the NCLA’s website, three things jumped out at me:

The NCLA’s endorsement of Amy Coney Barrett’s record of quashing administrative law tyranny.
The NCLA’s defence of Bitcoiners against privacy violations by the IRS.
Gun rights!

Please let me know what you think.

Quote from: suchmoon on October 27, 2020, 06:07:53 PM

just watch out for those sensor ships and don't say anything unpleasant about the nutcase OP.

Quoted for the next time somebody complains about your own self-mod actions. I notice that you consistently ban quite a list of users from your threads. My name was not on the list for the thread where I posted, or any previous list of yours that I have seen. You were banned by name in the OP’s local rules of the thread where you posted. Stop whining like such a lunatic.

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

Quote from: eddie13 on October 27, 2020, 05:58:02 PM

ACLU?
Yuck..

Well, it's actually your bet with theymos, I'm just an intruder. If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it, just watch out for those sensor ships and don't say anything unpleasant about the nutcase OP.

Quote from: ?? on ??

I don't do "real" betting. I'd do a modified bet (with you and/or eddie13 and/or other reputable forum members) where the loser has to donate 0.01 BTC to a charity of his choice.

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

ACLU?
Yuck..

nutildah

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 27, 2020, 05:06:26 PM

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

Quote from: ?? on ??

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

That is very funny -- not often do you see $140 jokes being made around here.

I don't have the confidence you do that Trump has already lost. Too shattered since last time. If we learned anything from 2016, its that nobody really knows what the fuck is going on.

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Quote from: suchmoon on October 27, 2020, 05:06:26 PM

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

Quote from: Bitcoin Forum

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

What censorship? Before I deleted your post, I appended it to the end of mine with an appropriate note:

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

Loading...

Please read the local rules before posting.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Local Rules: Effective immediately, suchmoon is categorically banned from all of my self-moderated threads (unless I make an accusation against her, in which she will be accorded a fair right of reply). The post to which I replied has the same subject matter, i.e. offering a wager to theymos. It has not been deleted; therefore, I draw the obvious inference. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

Per its OP, that whole thread only got started because you deleted my reply to eddie13’s offer to theymos. You didn’t delete that—nor did you delete some other talk about wagering. The only reasonable explanation is that you deleted my post out of petty personal dislike for its author.

And now you whine because I have stated upfront that you are categorically banned from my self-mod threads^*? Roll Eyes

* Except if I were to bring an accusation against you; per what I stated, the accused shall always have a fair right of reply in my self-moderated threads.

Quote from: suchmoon on October 27, 2020, 05:06:26 PM

This was in response to:

Quote from: ?? on ??

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

Among other things, hypocrisy is untrustworthy.

suchmoon

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Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

Quote from: ?? on ??

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

Gyfts

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 26, 2020, 07:15:44 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on October 26, 2020, 06:52:33 PM

National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

Due to huge numbers of early voting it's getting increasingly unlikely with every day. For example if FBI announced an investigation into whatever Fox News is accusing Biden of, it would be much less likely to have the same kind of impact like Hillary's e-mails did because so many have already voted.

You are probably right, but I still give Trump about a 15% chance of victory. Of course, a 15% chance in politics pretty much means this election is a wrap.

I still think we'll see a couple states be a bit closer than what the polls are showing. But since we're a week out, and the polls have indicated the gap is not closing, my final prediction is that Biden wins the electoral college.

Can't win them all, oh well.

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 26, 2020, 06:31:52 PM

For someone that is usually so pragmatic

This is new. Usually, I am accused of being an idealistic dreamer. ;-)

Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 26, 2020, 06:31:52 PM

...I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path.

I’m not sure why you are arguing about the media polls with me, when your own statement was that Trump was an underdog in the betting markets.

Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 26, 2020, 06:31:52 PM

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

A part of my point was that if PN7’s numbers are correct (probably—haven’t checked—don’t really care), Trump is less of an underdog now than he was in 2016. And—guess who became U.S. president in 2016.

Quote from: nullius on October 26, 2020, 05:59:33 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on October 26, 2020, 01:55:39 PM

This is probably not the best time to be getting into an even money bet for Trump to win. The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

A deeper point is that this is a plebiscite on Trump:

Quote from: eddie13 on October 26, 2020, 05:03:22 PM

~~biden~~ anti-trump betters

Well said.

All of this is consistent with my point: Many Americans were disillusioned—literally, they stopped seeing the illusion of importance in the vote. Trump got them re-engaged with the system. Good job!

Quote from: nullius on October 16, 2020, 10:10:33 AM

suchmoon

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Quote from: Gyfts on October 26, 2020, 06:52:33 PM

National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

Due to huge numbers of early voting it's getting increasingly unlikely with every day. For example if FBI announced an investigation into whatever Fox News is accusing Biden of, it would be much less likely to have the same kind of impact like Hillary's e-mails did because so many have already voted.

nutildah

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Quote from: eddie13 on October 26, 2020, 05:03:22 PM

No more BS, you guys are fucked now when trump wins and that`s that..

Yep. Glad we could straighten things out.

I just got back from a memorial service at a veteran's cemetery; probably one of the nicest in the nation. It was for a Korean War vet: he was an old guy that lived a full life, and it was a powerful experience. It actually made me feel proud to be an American for the first time in a while. Basically, I hope that regardless of who gets elected, the division in our country will die down at least a little bit.

Quote from: nullius on October 26, 2020, 05:59:33 PM

I'm quite tired of your pointless pettiness and am sticking you on ignore. Just thought I'd let you know in case you wonder why I'm no longer responding to you. You clearly have an axe to grind with the entire world (except for Lauda, RIP) and that's neither my fault nor problem.

Some goes for PrimeNumber7/Quickseller. Not interested anymore.

Get a life, because life is short, and it will be the only one you'll have.

Gyfts

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 26, 2020, 06:31:52 PM

Quote from: nullius on October 26, 2020, 05:59:33 PM

Hmmm. What were the odds called by the mass-media (and the betting markets) that Hillary would win, in late October of 2016?

For someone that is usually so pragmatic I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path. There were plenty of pundits saying Trump was dead in the water, but that didn't reflect the actual numbers and really anyone that says they know for certain what the outcome will be before election day is either a liar or a fool and should be ignored.

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

The final national polls on average had Clinton with a 3.2 point lead and she ended up receiving 2.1% more votes.

National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

TwitchySeal

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Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: nullius on October 26, 2020, 05:59:33 PM

Hmmm. What were the odds called by the mass-media (and the betting markets) that Hillary would win, in late October of 2016?

For someone that is usually so pragmatic I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path. There were plenty of pundits saying Trump was dead in the water, but that didn't reflect the actual numbers and really anyone that says they know for certain what the outcome will be before election day is either a liar or a fool and should be ignored.

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

The final national polls on average had Clinton with a 3.2 point lead and she ended up receiving 2.1% more votes.

BADecker

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^^^ All you remind me of is somebody who isn't free.

Freedom Speech Easy Rider

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc11mJGre10

Cool

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Quote from: eddie13 on October 26, 2020, 05:03:22 PM

The conversation was about signing a staked address for identity verification purposes, signing a contract, which somehow seemed to confuse 100% of ~~biden~~ anti-trump betters thus far...
The purpose is to eliminate the "I was hacked when my account agreed to that" excuse..

Guess who is going to chime in here.

Bitcoin is cypherpunk crypto-money. Do people want to use crypto, or just talk about it while masturbating over their Coinbase accounts, waiting for Number To Go Up?

All financial agreements for nontrivial (non-“dust”) amounts conducted on the forum should always require signed statements!

Quote from: nutildah on October 26, 2020, 03:31:34 PM

Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that the bet is on, as apparently it did to you all these months.

Colour me unsurprised at nutildah’s ignorance about the proper use of practical cryptography. Roll Eyes

Quote from: eddie13 on October 26, 2020, 05:03:22 PM

No more BS,

Use crypto. No excuses.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on October 26, 2020, 01:55:39 PM

Who knows if he will pay up if Trump wins, considering he apparently has forgotten that he placed his bet. SM probably will.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on October 26, 2020, 01:55:39 PM

This is probably not the best time to be getting into an even money bet for Trump to win. The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

Hmmm. What were the odds called by the mass-media (and the betting markets) that Hillary would win, in late October of 2016?

If I wanted to bet, I would be a contrarian, and bet on Trump. For the reason that you state, I would probably want better than even odds.

I say this even though I despise Trump much more than the TDS crowd does. (For totally different reasons.)

Quote from: eddie13 on August 19, 2018, 12:37:50 PM

Signed message today..

1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

This is eddie13 on 8/19/2018 updating my Bitcointalk staked address

IIgvyxWXnHtM6veHdfdP+zvxb5mVC6XsGa/K2fieDj6yX/cHBVL73Z14KQnRu8ydIUugmK3AKtvee9FelXl41KU=

The question hereby is to establish his address (significantly) prior to today’s date; in the circumstance, I don’t feel a need to reach back further. Considerable research effort is sometimes required... The forum should have a better way to handle these things.

Quote from: eddie13 on October 26, 2020, 05:03:22 PM

Code:

OK I agree.. [quote author=nutildah link=topic=5208356.msg55459030#msg55459030 date=1603740694] Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that [u]the bet is on[/u], as apparently it did to you all these months.[/quote]

H4Es74/VDqCuDxS9PJYMZMqFOkQs6mxp2J2QwFFUykTnSWfll7Isx3EVIdCQmYFyn9XUpzu8sZQ3WgPDLJ27DoA=

No more BS, you guys are fucked now when trump wins and that`s that..

Quoted for reference. I am against saying that I verified it; people should do that for themselves! No “somebody verified it”, and no Gavin-style “I saw this verified by somebody”.

BADecker

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The good part about Trump is, he will do what is good and right for the people.

The bad part about Trump is, he will "legalize" freedom for Presidents so that the guy/gal after Trump will be free to do a whole lot more than if Trump had never been around. And nobody knows if it will be bad or good.

Of course, if Biden gets in, the bad will happen now rather than the worse bad later.

Cool

Fortify

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I think a two party system is always going to face polarization within a democracy and two parties is simply not enough to express the wide range of views that are necessary to run a country effectively. It ends up with a constant tug of war and in the current climate people are too willing to get entrenched in a position without the ability to compromise. Sadly I think the current batch of politicians are too self serving and not willing to stand up for the guiding principles of their countries. I also don't understand why it is a race between two 75 year olds, as if age is meant to bring wisdom - my personal experience has been exactly the opposite. I don't wish to sound ageist - but people do not peak in their 70's and shouldn't be running the most powerful country in the world, that's for sure.

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Quote from: nutildah on October 26, 2020, 03:31:34 PM

The message you signed doesn't include the part that you were to lend me 0.01 BTC at the time of the bet, which you never sent... Please go back and re-read the conversation.

What I said about it basically being a loan is that accepting a bet requires the same level of trust and certainty of identity as giving a loan..
(also nothing to do with signing proof of funds like some guy commented on accusing me of moving them)

The conversation was about signing a staked address for identity verification purposes, signing a contract, which somehow seemed to confuse 100% of ~~biden~~ anti-trump betters thus far...
The purpose is to eliminate the "I was hacked when my account agreed to that" excuse..

Quote from: nutildah on October 26, 2020, 03:31:34 PM

Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that the bet is on, as apparently it did to you all these months.

Good enough I guess..

Code:

OK I agree.. [quote author=nutildah link=topic=5208356.msg55459030#msg55459030 date=1603740694] Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that [u]the bet is on[/u], as apparently it did to you all these months.[/quote]

H4Es74/VDqCuDxS9PJYMZMqFOkQs6mxp2J2QwFFUykTnSWfll7Isx3EVIdCQmYFyn9XUpzu8sZQ3WgPDLJ27DoA=

No more BS, you guys are fucked now when trump wins and that`s that..

Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 13. (Read 11295 times)