[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 8.

nullius

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 06:03:06 PM

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election,

Zeroth of all, that is a carefully worded lie by omission: As you damn well know, a non-supporter of Trump bet on Trump.^*

And first of all, perhaps eddie was the only one willing to risk potentially giving money to you.

(* N.b., PrimeNumber7 posted when I had written most of this post, and I was looking for the perfect example of media bias directly targeted to influence the outcome.)

Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 06:03:06 PM

and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent.

Are you fucking dense? Roll Eyes

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on October 26, 2020, 12:55:39 PM

The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

Quote from: Gyfts on November 10, 2020, 12:49:57 AM

And besides, with how bias the media was,

Just for instance, brainwashing the voting votaries to believe that the outcome was a foregone conclusion—and by the way, my artistic eye appreciates the juxtaposition of a calm, placid Biden image juxtaposed against an upset-looking Trump image:

On Election Day, they just had to pump Biden’s EC chances by another percentage point:

(Images are links. Clicky-clicky.)

Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 06:03:06 PM

[Trump was] a relatively advantageous bet

Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 06:03:06 PM

That's really bizarre

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 06:03:06 PM

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

Umm, excuse me. I bet that Trump will be the President after the election is over. This is an even more bold bet than eddie13 made, as it effectively hinges on legal challenges by Trump/campaign.

Gyfts

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 06:03:06 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on November 09, 2020, 04:20:52 PM

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure Wink

but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

This was suppose to be a Biden victory walking away but less than a percent separated Biden and Trump in AZ, GA, WI, PA(?). It was a toss up in those states. Who would have expected this election to be this close?

And besides, with how bias the media was, it's not like Trump ever had a chance to begin with. The fact that Trump increased his support among minority voters really does shed light on where the democratic party is at right now, and how wrong the media was over the last 4 years painting Trump to be this neo-nazi that wants to chain up minorities and ship them to the gulag.

philipma1957

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 06:03:06 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on November 09, 2020, 04:20:52 PM

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure Wink

but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

I am a centrist. I love Trumps wall idea 💡 not much else.

I like the idea of medical for all.

So basically every election for USA president I vote compromised as I don’t like either party much.

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

But trump will pivot.

suchmoon

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 09, 2020, 04:20:52 PM

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure Wink

but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

squatz1

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Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Quote from: Biodom on November 09, 2020, 02:21:52 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2020, 10:44:53 PM

I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.

Everybody has an opinion, but the name is Grover Cleveland.
Personally, I think that the chance of this happening is low, but non-zero, of course.

Chance = Yes. But as you said, super low.

But the only possible chance is Donald J Trump winning, the former President, not any of his sons or anything along those lines.

Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 02:51:51 PM

If anyone would like to make a new "Trump or not Trump" 1:1 bet for 2024 - you know where to find me

. Same conditions as per OP, just add 4 years to dates. 0.01 BTC minimum, 1 BTC max (total budget). Escrow required unless you're in my trust list and the amount is 0.1 BTC or less. To make it more bearable let's make it any Trump and throw in Jared too.

You bet on: Donald J Trump, or one of his children (Ivanka, Don Jr, Eric, Tiffany), or one of his past/current spouses, or Jared Kushner.

I bet on: none of the above.

Any takers?

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2020, 10:44:53 PM

I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure.

Let's see how sure

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

Only person with a real chance, like I said above, is Donald J Trump. None of his sons or Kushner is going to be able to get people to vote for them like the elder Trump did.

ibminer

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 02:51:51 PM

I bet on: none of the above.

Trump vs Biden.... I went with Brewster on this election..

Time for some real facts...

Tom MacDonald - No Lives Matter

Cool

suchmoon

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If anyone would like to make a new "Trump or not Trump" 1:1 bet for 2024 - you know where to find me

. Same conditions as per OP, just add 4 years to dates. 0.01 BTC minimum, 1 BTC max (total budget). Escrow required unless you're in my trust list and the amount is 0.1 BTC or less. To make it more bearable let's make it any Trump and throw in Jared too.

You bet on: Donald J Trump, or one of his children (Ivanka, Don Jr, Eric, Tiffany), or one of his past/current spouses, or Jared Kushner.

I bet on: none of the above.

Any takers?

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2020, 10:44:53 PM

I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure.

Let's see how sure

Biodom

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2020, 10:44:53 PM

I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.

Everybody has an opinion, but the name is Grover Cleveland.
Personally, I think that the chance of this happening is low, but non-zero, of course.

squatz1

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Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Quote from: suchmoon on November 09, 2020, 01:05:44 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2020, 10:44:53 PM

I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.

Grover Cleveland?

God. I completely forgot that we actually have had a President who has done that before.

Very different time though. Given this age of mass information and media, I don't think that Trump will REALLY run in 2024. Trump will talk about it to keep himself relevant, though I do just expect him to buy some sort of media company or start his own and try to get his massive following to use it for their information.

He's still VERY powerful within the GOP and is the reason that they were able to win down the ballot. MANY people who are currently in office are only there because of Trump (I'm looking at YOU Ron DeSantis)

Nice win on this though SuchMoon.

suchmoon

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2020, 10:44:53 PM

I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.

Grover Cleveland?

iamsheikhadil

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2020, 10:44:53 PM

I can be sure That Trump is going to play it this way. He will concede and run in 2024. He will open up Twitter Trump and call out the dems. for 4 years. Then TRUMP TRUMP ticket in 2024.

I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.

I don't think this is going to happen, like if he reruns, I'm pretty sure he will lose. The thing is he is just trying to cater to his lovers and supporters that he hasn't really lost this election, through which he is saying everyone who voted for Biden is a "fraud". That itself offends almost every Biden voter who might have voted for Trump in 2016. These voters won't forget this at all, and will vote blue again in 2024 if Trump tries to rerun. When Hillary called Trump voters deplorable, it didn't go well. Now Trump said Biden voters are fraud.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Gyfts on November 07, 2020, 10:32:08 AM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html

Read this article, probably behind paywall but I'll summarize -- Stacey Abrams is responsible for Georgia turning blue this election cycle.

She deserves praise from democrats, black vote turned out and cost Trump the state.

Now, the unfortunate thing is I don't think these people will turn out for the Georgia runoff election which means good chance Republicans secure a solid 52-48 senate majority. Just about the only silver lining this election cycle. That, and probably the house victories.

Actually if you look at Trump's 4 years and this election> Trump was helpful to the Republican/conservative movement.

A) 200 conservative federal judges
B) 6 to 3 margins in the Supreme Court.
C) most likely holds the senate
D) most likely gained in the house.

If the cases go to the supreme court and they decide against trump it is a victory for the republicans. As Biden would have no ability to stack the court by diluting it to 13 judges.. Republicans would be able to say the court was not bipartisan they ruled against Trump.

So basically Trump has already won if you are a republican he helped you out greatly.

If you are a trump fan you have already won an election in 2016 and can help push trump and his daughter back into the office in 2024.

I can be sure That Trump is going to play it this way. He will concede and run in 2024. He will open up Twitter Trump and call out the dems. for 4 years. Then TRUMP TRUMP ticket in 2024.

I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Question:

Quote from: eddie13 on November 03, 2020, 12:29:01 AM

Where do you think it went wrong nulli?

Answer:

Quote from: eddie13 on November 03, 2020, 12:29:01 AM

... was it just doomed from the start?

Quote from: eddie13 on November 03, 2020, 12:29:01 AM

On that note, I think ending colonialism may have been a great mistake.. I can think of many 3rd world countries that would be better off under foreign western rule because they obviously just don't have the intelligence to get their shit together on their own in years since..
National sovereignty for wildlings? I mean really, you must be redpilled on IQ no?

So, eddie, which colonial power should take paternalistic stewardship of the mentally retarded, atavistically primitive American third-world shithole that can’t even run an election without Democrat vote-stuffing shenanigans?

America is a dumb kid country that never grew up, after it ran away from Daddy England. But the whilom Imperial Brits bolloxed the governance of their colonies; I think that America would be better off under the rule of a Continental European power. (If but only at least one of them would restore a sane government; the fuckwit E.U. may as well be American.)

Quote from: nullius on November 08, 2020, 12:13:45 AM

Quote from: Arriemoller on November 07, 2020, 08:23:08 PM

If people with a IQ under 100 weren't allowed to vote there wouldn't be any ~~Dem.~~ American votes. That would be no fun.

FYFY.

To be clear, eddie, I partly agree with you about colonialism—and I do know all about IQ.

Quote from: eddie13 on November 03, 2020, 12:29:01 AM

I mean really, you must be redpilled on IQ no?

Protip: The existence of liberal pseudointellectuals, some of whom score highly on psychometric tests of general intelligence, proves empirically that IQ is necessary but insufficient. The perplexing problem of high-IQ idiots is one that I have spent years examining; but I will avoid hereby launching into a five thousand word scholarly essay on the topic...

Moreover, I don’t do drugs. Thus, I don’t take any pills randomly offered to me by some weirdo black dude who wears sunglasses at night.

Whereas that “redpilled” metaphor is used by a spectrum of groups for which it ranges from incongruous, to... peinlich!

Quote from: nullius on October 14, 2020, 04:29:23 PM

Sie sind entartet!

... a Wachowski ~~brothers~~ “sisters” story starring a Eurasian mutt, a black, and an ostensible female who would be completely androgynous if her breasts and buttocks were not so ample, with a plot about the salvation of Zion.

Quote from: nullius on October 04, 2020, 01:36:48 PM

Quote from: nullius on October 03, 2020, 12:55:49 AM

a conversation I once with an old Jew about the worst humiliation to Hitler being entomoid neo-Nazis.

BayAreaCoins

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 08, 2020, 09:34:59 PM

(I haven't verified this or anything)

(don't get any ideas eddie)

I'm shocked they already graded that bet... eh.

https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election

Is still taking presidential bets.

eddie13

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 08, 2020, 09:34:59 PM

(don't get any ideas eddie)

What's that supposed to mean?

IDK what their standard for an outcome is, but this is on the EC, or they have balls to call/pay it and possibly have to pay out both sides if shit happens..

TwitchySeal

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Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

(I haven't verified this or anything)

(don't get any ideas eddie)

Gyfts

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html

Read this article, probably behind paywall but I'll summarize -- Stacey Abrams is responsible for Georgia turning blue this election cycle.

She deserves praise from democrats, black vote turned out and cost Trump the state.

Now, the unfortunate thing is I don't think these people will turn out for the Georgia runoff election which means good chance Republicans secure a solid 52-48 senate majority. Just about the only silver lining this election cycle. That, and probably the house victories.

nullius

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If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!

Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 07, 2020, 02:25:53 AM

... The equipment and software did not malfunction and all ballots were properly tabulated. However, the clerk accidentally did not update the software used to collect voting machine data and report unofficial results.

Like many counties in Michigan, Antrim County uses the Dominion Voting Systems election management system and voting machines (ballot tabulators.) The county receives programming support from Election Source. Tabulators are programmed to ...

... The software did not cause a misallocation of votes; it was a result of user human error. Even when human error occurs, it is caught during county canvasses. ...
https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127--544676--,00.html

Quote from: eddie13 on November 07, 2020, 02:44:39 AM

So it was the Clerk's fault, "human error", and not the software's fault, because the software was not "updated" by the clerk, so the software was wrong, but it wasn't the software's fault..

Funny the software should need "updated" just a day or 2 before the election for it to not be totally incorrect, or, for it not to somehow completely skew all race results unsuspiciously to the left..

Anybody who imagines that voting be important (as I don’t) should dig through the archives of the RISKS Digest for decades of discussion about the RISKS of voting machines, voting machine software, human error, etc., etc. Voting systems have been a longtime major focus there. I also expect that RISKS will probably carry discussion of what is now happening in the United States; you may want to contribute, if you have a mind for computer security. (PrimeNumber7 particularly may like this, if he’s not already a secret subscriber. Unfortunately, I myself have not followed it for some few years.)

RISKS Digest: Forum on Risks to the Public in Computers and Related Systems:
https://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/

Oh, the RISKS of being catless! 😿

RISKS is an old-school computer security thing, published since 1985 and known to anybody who is serious these matters. It is sufficiently “notable” that it has a lamentably inadequate Wikipedia page:

Quote from: nullius on February 26, 2018, 12:49:52 AM

Quote from: npredtorch on February 18, 2018, 03:24:04 AM

On the other hand, I could say that people/users can be blame too for this inexplicable continuous hacking & bad news. Why?
Simply because most of them don't want projects that are slow on production. They only think about the "hype" without realizing that there is a proper flow for conducting new features. They passively pushes the developers/coders to do an early releases that have greater chances for bugs and errors. This is a very common thing on some projects here in bctalk Wink

This is what RISKS-subscriber types used to call “dancing pigs”. People will not pay for correct, reliable, secure things. People will not wait for them, either. They want their dancing pigs, and they want them now!

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Spear the bees

apply occam's razor
& repeat

Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 8. (Read 11803 times)