Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 7. (Read 11730 times)

You’re right.. Pretty sure I tipped the crap out of some miners..
The one I looked at recommended 300 sat per byte, like omg..
And I had a lot of stuff to get done so I just paid it..
Oh well..

Ignore the "Time" in the photo below.  It is WRONG too.  4sat fees confirm next block the past few days.



Do NOT use the Bitcoin Core fee estimator tools... use your eyes/brains.

Bitcoin Core tries to drive in Sunday traffic with Friday's data.... so so so stupid.

There are MUCH better ways to estimate send fees.

Addy is good.. Keep the change..
Recommended fees are ridiculous right now..

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

I guess we are only going to do the escrow thing for twitchy and nutildah for now, and I’ll get back to my setup later this afternoon when I can..

I'd love to but no one seems to want to bet on Trump, go figure...

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.55556354


No, the odds were much closer than that back then and may have even been to Trump's favor at some point during the year since. Keep in mind that at the time of the bet we didn't even know who the Democratic nominee was going to be. Some bookies were quoting odds for Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.

First of all, congratulations for Suchmoon. But then I have a lot of respect for eddie13 as well. He went for a bet in favor of Trump, when most of the election sites gave him less than a 1 in 10 chance. And despite all this, Trump came very close to a win. 


LOL.. this is very unlikely. Even before the elections, there were rumors that Trump would say goodbye to the United States, if he loses the election. But still, I expect him to campaign for the Georgia senate election runoffs, as these two seats are very crucial for the GOP. If they win both the seats, then they will be having 52-48 advantage over Democrats. As per the current leads, Democrat majority has been decimated in the senate. Earlier the Democrats had a 232-197 advantage and this time it will be around 220-215. GOP gained a number of suburban seats which they lost in 2018, thanks to the Democrats fielding ultra-leftist and hyperliberal candidates.

---

I have considered simply paying up on my own bet.  It is a charity bet; and I don’t like having this hang on unsettled.  But then, I still think that Trump may win; and I have even considered offering a new bet similar to PrimeNumber7’s.  If the wager is to have any meaning (or fun, which is the only point of this for me), it must be settled correctly on the outcome (and n.b. that in case of dispute, I did specify upfront a wait-and-see resolution).

I suppose that I will just need to wait this out.  By the time the Americans get their election in order, 0.01 BTC will be worth enough to buy a small island...

Congrats Suchmoon for the win it was an election which was really unpredictable because incumbent presidents rarely loses. Times are extraordinary and although my guts said Biden will win, didn't listen to it because of 2016 flashbacks

I'm sure Trump will be returning for 2024 election, so there is a possibility again for another bet xD

Sure thing.

Address: 1A8DePhATaFEyNBJpuybCA8oYUUZEgUraP
Message: eddie13, read your PMs. This is suchmoon 2020-11-14.
Signature: G2a6tJRIVK99kop3wzeG39QExVg1iMmrzUxvnn7Y7Qj+VaQd2L4cWS6A4CKrArArVehg2Cb5sF9gW4iRtcWgmTM=

Address staked here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.40261816

Send funds to the address signed in the OP: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb

Is there even an allegation (let alone evidence) that such fraud was organized, systematic, and/or widespread on the Trump side?  Or is it simply a matter of some idiot deciding to try to cheat, as idiots do every day?

#justsaying

The irony is that Trump claims there's voter fraud in favor of Biden, while this guy did fraud to vote for Trump...

SM will you escrow my bet funds for me and send them out or return them as necessary?
I got some of my old stuff out and tested ready to go and just don't want to worry about being able to get around to it anymore.. And let me know what extra to put on the TX to cover miner fees for distribution (twitchy/nutildah) or return (if I win)..

Sign your staked identity so I know it's you and give me an escrow receiving address and I'll pop it over there..

Edit: Actually it's only going to work if the old chrome app still works, because it seems I have a shit show on my hands with old firmware and this new ledger live BS.. 

JOINT STATEMENT FROM ELECTIONS INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT COORDINATING COUNCIL & THE ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR COORDINATING EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES


"There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."

VOTER FRAUD IN PENNSYLVANIA!!!!#@!#@$


I look forward to Dan Patrick weaseling out of paying the reward.

I don't like those odds, he has a life expectancy of 10 years, so there's a reasonable chance he won't even make it that long.

When the people of the world will get that covid was intentionally released to frame china, steal the election from trump, assure massive bail outs and foster the forced vaccination agendas...the current regime change / color revolution in the usa will be thwarted !

THE LAST 4 YEARS OF TRUMP, begin in January 2021 and biden and his syndicate will judged ala nuremberg by a court of chinese, russian and american patriots, then be executed for crime against the World !

MAGA ALL THE WAY !

I never checked the betting lines while the results were pouring in but the UK markets late night on November 3rd went from 37% Trump odds to a 75% Trump odds which I probably could have made a bet on. At no point in the night did the data support a 3/4 chance of a Trump win so it would have been a good bet anyone to take. Perhaps some emotional betting, perhaps some overzealous Trump supporters, who knows why the odds were that high.

As far as 2024 bets. I don't think Trump or his children will be successful at clinching the nomination (in fact it is a VERY good bet to take 1:1 against one of his children being the nominee and even I'd bet on that). Ted Cruz and Nikki Hayley will both be running in 2024 and I feel strongly about one of them winning. But like I said, I would never put my money where my mouth is because politics is way too unpredictable. In 2016, I would have bet my kidney that Trump would not have gotten the nomination, and we see how that turned out. I would have bet my other kidney that he wouldn't win the general. And we see how that turned out. Also one of these two (Cruz or Hayley) could get hit by a bus in the next 4 years and I'd be out of my sat. Unless, of course, there was a clause in the bet about getting ran over by a bus  


I also am not even sure if it's a good idea for any gambler to bet that Biden would even run in 2024. I think Kamala Harris probably would take over by then, and in that case I think odds favor Republicans to beat Kamala Harris instead of Biden with how unlikeable she is.

I wonder if Pence runs? Hmm. A Pence vs Harris Presidential race? Woah.

Fair enough.


I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?