[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 47.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on February 02, 2020, 03:00:56 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on February 02, 2020, 02:47:15 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on February 02, 2020, 01:24:58 PM

If anyone is able to take out student loans, borrowing the max and putting it all on Biden to win the nomination seems like almost a freeroll.

You are assuming that Pocahontas, or sanders would automatically beat trump, and I don’t think this is the case. Both are too extreme for mainstream voters and really appeal to fringe democratic voters, who are more likely to vote in a primary.

It also doesn’t account for the possibility that no one will win in the first round at the convention that could result in someone like Clinton getting the nomination.

I'm talking about the primary, not assuming anyone will automatically beat Trump in the general election.
The biggest assumption is that if Bernie or Warren win (and the Biden bet lost) you wouldn't have to pay off the loan. I was mostly joking though, it's just something interesting to think about.

If you are describing it as a ‘free roll’ the assumption would be that Bernie or Warren would win. Trump isn’t canceling student debt, so Biden loosing the nomination and Trump loosing the general is the only way that bet is a freeroll.

Unless you are saying that Trump winning the general will do so much for the economy that a student in college stands to earn a high enough of a higher wage that he can afford to throw away one semesters worth of tuition.

TwitchySeal

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Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on February 02, 2020, 02:47:15 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on February 02, 2020, 01:24:58 PM

If anyone is able to take out student loans, borrowing the max and putting it all on Biden to win the nomination seems like almost a freeroll.

You are assuming that Pocahontas, or sanders would automatically beat trump, and I don’t think this is the case. Both are too extreme for mainstream voters and really appeal to fringe democratic voters, who are more likely to vote in a primary.

It also doesn’t account for the possibility that no one will win in the first round at the convention that could result in someone like Clinton getting the nomination.

I'm talking about the primary, not assuming anyone will automatically beat Trump in the general election.
The biggest assumption is that if Bernie or Warren win (and the Biden bet lost) you wouldn't have to pay off the loan. I was mostly joking though, it's just something interesting to think about.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on February 02, 2020, 01:24:58 PM

If anyone is able to take out student loans, borrowing the max and putting it all on Biden to win the nomination seems like almost a freeroll.

You are assuming that Pocahontas, or sanders would automatically beat trump, and I don’t think this is the case. Both are too extreme for mainstream voters and really appeal to fringe democratic voters, who are more likely to vote in a primary.

It also doesn’t account for the possibility that no one will win in the first round at the convention that could result in someone like Clinton getting the nomination.

TwitchySeal

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If anyone is able to take out student loans, borrowing the max and putting it all on Biden to win the nomination seems like almost a freeroll.

iamsheikhadil

full member

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Merit: 133

This is going to be so interesting! More fun than it was in 2016. While historically, it is trump who should win (because he's incumbent, economy hasn't crushed, almost every president in last few decades held office twice terms), I think this election might be an exception. A popular candidate like Biden has real chances to defeat Trump and even I am hesitating to put any money on bet on either side as both sides look so strong and swinging.

Sendoku

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I think Trump's gonna be reelected, at least based on previous guys getting impeached from the office. Everytime a president got impeached his rating gone through the roof

suchmoon

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on January 13, 2020, 05:26:05 PM

I know a lot of libs think a beach ball could beat Trump

I don't have a particularly fuzzy feeling about any of the Democratic candidates. Come to think of it, most of them are about as intelligent as beach balls.

But that's not what wins elections and not what my bet is based on. I've done some work for a voter outreach group in one of the "battleground" states and it is my understanding that higher voter turnout would favor Democrats (lazy millennials/gen Z) so I'm basically betting on good turnout. We'll see.

PrimeNumber7

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Trump spent much less than Clinton this past cycle. By a pretty large margin.

Flying Hellfish

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Verified Bernie Bro - Feel The Bern!

Fun thread, good luck SM!!

Fun Fact: The presidency has been bought (the campaign that spent the most money won the WH) every cycle since (and including) 1980, with 1 exception. Only 1 person has been able to win the WH while spending LESS than their opponent. I might give some merit to the first non cunty user to name that POTUS (if I don't like you I won't give you merit, merit given for answer is entirely subjective and I reserve the right to NOT give any merit for any reason I like).

It's kind of a ballsy bet SM. I know a lot of libs think a beach ball could beat Trump but I think that is underestimating how energized the GOP base is, how much money his campaign has and how much people HATE neolibs. Beating an incumbent POTUS with a "good" economy is a monumental task in and of itself, add in the money, the Russians and the hyper partisan energized base and you have a mountain to climb as the Dem candidate.

I couldn't bet on an X dem vs Trump bet right now at least not at even money. I absolutely see a path for Trump to win (Biden/HRC2.0) and one for him to lose (feel the BERN). Your bet (to me) gets so much more interesting once a nom is finalized!

suchmoon

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Quote from: Spendulus on January 10, 2020, 10:14:49 AM

So don't we Trumpers have to vote once for each meme? It was that or once for each Trump tweet, I don't recall which.

No no no, only illegal immigrants are allowed to vote multiple times.

Spendulus

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Quote from: suchmoon on January 09, 2020, 09:33:12 AM

If memes could win elections... come to think of it, Trump is obviously a winner in that department so y'all Trump supporters don't even need to bother voting.

But I heard it's not MAGA any more. It's KAG.

So don't we Trumpers have to vote once for each meme? It was that or once for each Trump tweet, I don't recall which.

TwitchySeal

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Quote from: suchmoon on January 09, 2020, 09:33:12 AM

If memes could win elections... come to think of it, Trump is oblviously a winner in that department so y'all Trump supporters don't even need to bother voting.

fyp

suchmoon

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If memes could win elections... come to think of it, Trump is obviously a winner in that department so y'all Trump supporters don't even need to bother voting.

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Is this thread now the official Biden meme magazine?

Quote from: google

mag·a·zine
a chamber for holding a supply of cartridges to be fed automatically to the breech of a gun.

TECSHARE

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First Exclusion Ever

TwitchySeal

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I like this one better

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Imagine thinking Biden could win..

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Verified..
It's on!

TwitchySeal

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Quote from: eddie13 on January 05, 2020, 02:51:32 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on January 04, 2020, 02:55:16 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on December 16, 2019, 11:12:20 PM

I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.

Just saying.

Ok don't want this on my todo list any longer. I just stole all the terms from suchmoon/eddie bet in OP and changed the amount. I'm fine with forgetting the arbitrator clause as long as this bet is settled the same as your bet with suchmoon.

Let me know if everything looks good and I'll sign it with 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn

I could've sworn I had it in the staked address thread, but can only find this post at the moment: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12951413

Code:

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2020-01-04

Code:

eddie13 accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

H2aX6ACUY9ZekeQ8VeO+QoiIJZE+oskWNVhH38P/AjZ3TzW3sJlh3lBPa/nVgxbOVt3EY0vFwdwHzEqkwtiYUf4=

Code:

Twitchyseal accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

IHRUYsmFQVZMxEbSzfhcmTNf2qQnfJwH7I91Lzt0OM78EOOc7FgPNsTB/fGipfSF9ZAVuvlmhFbAFXmmOxkBkZc=

TwitchySeal

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Quote from: coolcoinz on January 05, 2020, 03:51:52 PM

It's interesting to watch as the odds of official Trump winning are quite high. Eddie13 is actually at an advantage, if I'm not wrong and could make money playing it right.
So, for every 1 BTC he's betting he's going to receive 1 BTC (if Trump wins).
It could be smart for him to bet 1:1 with you and also against himself at the same time with the current 1/6 odds, getting 6 BTC for every 1 BTC wagered (if Trump loses).

The 1/6 odds are that he completes first term (doesn't get convicted by senate, resign or die).

At the time of the article paddy was offering 10/11, -110 american (so they basically considered it a dead heat and take some juice)

No vpn needed to check predictit and you can check history of prices easily. It's a market though, not traditional bookie.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 47. (Read 11803 times)