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Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 47. (Read 11316 times)

newbie
Activity: 52
Merit: 0
I think Trump's gonna be reelected, at least based on previous guys getting impeached from the office. Everytime a president got impeached his rating gone through the roof
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
I know a lot of libs think a beach ball could beat Trump

I don't have a particularly fuzzy feeling about any of the Democratic candidates. Come to think of it, most of them are about as intelligent as beach balls.

But that's not what wins elections and not what my bet is based on. I've done some work for a voter outreach group in one of the "battleground" states and it is my understanding that higher voter turnout would favor Democrats (lazy millennials/gen Z) so I'm basically betting on good turnout. We'll see.
copper member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1899
Amazon Prime Member #7
Trump spent much less than Clinton this past cycle. By a pretty large margin.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1756
Verified Bernie Bro - Feel The Bern!
Fun thread, good luck SM!!

Fun Fact:  The presidency has been bought (the campaign that spent the most money won the WH) every cycle since (and including) 1980, with 1 exception.  Only 1 person has been able to win the WH while spending LESS than their opponent.  I might give some merit to the first non cunty user to name that POTUS (if I don't like you I won't give you merit, merit given for answer is entirely subjective and I reserve the right to NOT give any merit for any reason I like).

It's kind of a ballsy bet SM.  I know a lot of libs think a beach ball could beat Trump but I think that is underestimating how energized the GOP base is, how much money his campaign has and how much people HATE neolibs.  Beating an incumbent POTUS with a "good" economy is a monumental task in and of itself, add in the money, the Russians and the hyper partisan energized base and you have a mountain to climb as the Dem candidate.

I couldn't bet on an X dem vs Trump bet right now at least not at even money.  I absolutely see a path for Trump to win (Biden/HRC2.0) and one for him to lose (feel the BERN).  Your bet (to me) gets so much more interesting once a nom is finalized!



legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
So don't we Trumpers have to vote once for each meme? It was that or once for each Trump tweet, I don't recall which.

No no no, only illegal immigrants are allowed to vote multiple times.
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1386
If memes could win elections... come to think of it, Trump is obviously a winner in that department so y'all Trump supporters don't even need to bother voting.

But I heard it's not MAGA any more. It's KAG.

So don't we Trumpers have to vote once for each meme? It was that or once for each Trump tweet, I don't recall which.

Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2047
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
If memes could win elections... come to think of it, Trump is oblviously a winner in that department so y'all Trump supporters don't even need to bother voting.



fyp
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
If memes could win elections... come to think of it, Trump is obviously a winner in that department so y'all Trump supporters don't even need to bother voting.

legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 2262
BTC or BUST
Is this thread now the official Biden meme magazine?

Quote from: google
mag·a·zine
a chamber for holding a supply of cartridges to be fed automatically to the breech of a gun.
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 1958
First Exclusion Ever
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2047
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
I like this one better

legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 2262
BTC or BUST



Imagine thinking Biden could win..
legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 2262
BTC or BUST
Verified..
It's on!
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2047
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.

Just saying.

Ok don't want this on my todo list any longer.  I just stole all the terms from suchmoon/eddie bet in OP and changed the amount.  I'm fine with forgetting the arbitrator clause as long as this bet is settled the same as your bet with suchmoon.

Let me know if everything looks good and I'll sign it with 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn

I could've sworn I had it in the staked address thread, but can only find this post at the moment:  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12951413



Code:
TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2020-01-04


Code:
eddie13 accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

H2aX6ACUY9ZekeQ8VeO+QoiIJZE+oskWNVhH38P/AjZ3TzW3sJlh3lBPa/nVgxbOVt3EY0vFwdwHzEqkwtiYUf4=


Code:
Twitchyseal accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.
IHRUYsmFQVZMxEbSzfhcmTNf2qQnfJwH7I91Lzt0OM78EOOc7FgPNsTB/fGipfSF9ZAVuvlmhFbAFXmmOxkBkZc=
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2047
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
It's interesting to watch as the odds of official Trump winning are quite high. Eddie13 is actually at an advantage, if I'm not wrong and could make money playing it right.
So, for every 1 BTC he's betting he's going to receive 1 BTC (if Trump wins).
It could be smart for him to bet 1:1 with you and also against himself at the same time with the current 1/6 odds, getting 6 BTC for every 1 BTC wagered (if Trump loses).

The 1/6 odds are that he completes first term (doesn't get convicted by senate, resign or die).  

At the time of the article paddy was offering 10/11, -110 american (so they basically considered it a dead heat and take some juice)

No vpn needed to check predictit and you can check history of prices easily.  It's a market though, not traditional bookie.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1103
Bookie suggestions?

Check out:
https://www.bet365.com
https://betway.com

Unfortunately I can't check the odds in real time because of country restrictions at these sites, so I relied on third party services. If you can find what the odds are today please post it here because the most recent ones that I could find were from a week ago, or I'll switch to a VPN later and do it myself.
legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 2262
BTC or BUST
It's interesting to watch as the odds of official Trump winning are quite high. Eddie13 is actually at an advantage, if I'm not wrong and could make money playing it right.
So, for every 1 BTC he's betting he's going to receive 1 BTC (if Trump wins).
It could be smart for him to bet 1:1 with you and also against himself at the same time with the current 1/6 odds, getting 6 BTC for every 1 BTC wagered (if Trump loses).
 
Say, he bets 1BTC against all of the forum members together. If he wins, he's going to have 2 BTC next year.
If he also bets 0.5 BTC against himself today and wins, he'll get 1BTC from you, but also loses 0.5 BTC, so he'll have a profit of 0.5.
If Trump loses, he'll get 3 BTC from the bookies, but will have to pay you 1, so that will leave him with 2 BTC of pure profit. Looks like a win- win situation to me.

Bookie suggestions?
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1103
It's interesting to watch as the odds of official Trump winning are quite high. Eddie13 is actually at an advantage, if I'm not wrong and could make money playing it right.
So, for every 1 BTC he's betting he's going to receive 1 BTC (if Trump wins).
It could be smart for him to bet 1:1 with you and also against himself at the same time with the current 1/6 odds, getting 6 BTC for every 1 BTC wagered (if Trump loses).
 
Say, he bets 1BTC against all of the forum members together. If he wins, he's going to have 2 BTC next year.
If he also bets 0.5 BTC against himself today and wins, he'll get 1BTC from you, but also loses 0.5 BTC, so he'll have a profit of 0.5.
If Trump loses, he'll get 3 BTC from the bookies, but will have to pay you 1, so that will leave him with 2 BTC of pure profit. Looks like a win- win situation to me.
legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 2262
BTC or BUST
I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.

Just saying.

Ok don't want this on my todo list any longer.  I just stole all the terms from suchmoon/eddie bet in OP and changed the amount.  I'm fine with forgetting the arbitrator clause as long as this bet is settled the same as your bet with suchmoon.

Let me know if everything looks good and I'll sign it with 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn

I could've sworn I had it in the staked address thread, but can only find this post at the moment:  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12951413



Code:
TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2020-01-04


Code:
eddie13 accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

H2aX6ACUY9ZekeQ8VeO+QoiIJZE+oskWNVhH38P/AjZ3TzW3sJlh3lBPa/nVgxbOVt3EY0vFwdwHzEqkwtiYUf4=
hero member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 504
Trump may win this election as there is no strong opponent from Democrats. They are still fighting in themselves and putting a stone on each others head. The odds are towards Trump, also don't forget about the war situation.
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